GOP Candidates Mafia 2016 - GAME OVER - PATAKI TAKES ALL

[hamfactorial]

Red, it's been 24 hours since your last real post so quit playing around. Share with the group!

[RedNihilist]

[RedNihilist]

His Last Resort ability was such that once per game, he may PM Manders the name of a dead player. He will then inherit their ability for the rest of the game, but his posting will be limited to one entry with content per day

[RedNihilist]

Seems like you were right as always, the post restrictions restricts me to one meaningful post per REAL LIFE DAY.

I've acquired NightArcher's role becoming a Tracker, but I won't be able to use my ability before night.

[hamfactorial]

Ham does it again!

[Manders]

Vote Count 2.4

RedNihilist (3): Kraj; Stardust; Pedrobear
Pedrobear (1): ( G_R )
Stardust (2): hamfactorial; RedNihilist

Not Voting (0):


With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

Let me know if I missed anything.

[hamfactorial]

Manders:

Red and I are voting for Stardust

[( G_R )]

QR_BBPOST If you feel that Red is either town or neutral, and therefore the scum is among Pedro, Stardust, and me, why do you rank me as townie just below Ham?

Because you seem more townie than neutral to me?

QR_BBPOST Also, please explain your reasons for voting Pedro.

I've been voting for him since yesterDay, and my reasons haven't changed, nor has he done anything to make me think I'm wrong.

QR_BBPOST Him being at L-1 for so long suggests that scum is on his wagon.

Oh look, my top two scum suspects are in there.

[( G_R )]

Just to clarify a bit more, Pedro's behavior during NA's lynch was odd to me at the moment, and in light of the flip it was more so. The "you think I'm scum because I can't English" has me very convinced of his scumminess. He never addressed my points against him either.

If I'm wrong then he must be the neutral, but no way he's town judging by the way he's behaved.

[hamfactorial]

This game is confusing, but not because of the setup. I'm confused mostly by the players and how they are behaving.

As part of a 3-man mason group, I expect to see some powerful abilities on the other side of the table. I don't expect to see a Tracker (NA) and a player who can steal abilities (Red) on the same scum team, unless town is made up of several other very powerful people.

As Stardust discussed, a 3 man scum team is quite overpowered and puts us in a hopeless D2 situation if we mislynch D1. A 2 man scum team is more reasonable, but leaves a bit of an imbalance unless the town block just consists of a mason group and a bunch of vanilla. In my best estimate, a 3-man mason group with a 2-man scum team, an independent, and some minor power roles could be balanced.

With 6 of us left, it should be simple enough to find a scum candidate or two and then proceed using PoE. The problem I'm facing is that too many people here make me suspicious.

Stardust told everyone he was scum, hopped off NA's wagon before he was lynched, opened the day with some good discussion on setup, but hasn't contributed anything since. Being confused I can understand, because I'm confused, but he's too smart to just sit back and play passively.

Red hammered NA when it seemed inevitable, then entered my QT under suspicious circumstances the following day. When I outed him, he responded with hand-waiving and eye rolls, and still has not addressed my concerns regarding the timing of his ability (keeping an Active Power until the beginning of the next day). I think the Active Power portion of his claim is genuine, but I don't believe that he's town. I suspect that if the game has an independent, he's it. Now he claims to be a Tracker, having targeted NA and dropping out of my chat. "Party Spy for Trump" seems like a flavor fit for a Tracker, but I still don't know if I can trust him. If he's an indie and we lynch him, we waste another shot at lynching scum.

Kraj seems town, and rezombad did too, before he went AWOL. Red is suspicious of Kraj and Kraj is suspicious of Red. With all the shade they're throwing at each other, I would suspect them of being teammates if the game could support a 3 scum team. I doubt there are 2 independents.

Pedro has done nothing to help town and refused to hammer NA on D1. He's scum at worst and useless town at best.

GR is a null read to me, I think because I've been focused on Red and Stardust and lost track of the others.

[( G_R )]

QR_BBPOST In my best estimate, a 3-man mason group with a 2-man scum team, an independent, and some minor power roles could be balanced.

Well, the three of you had big enough chances of becoming almost vanilla, especially when using your last resort power, so I agree here.

QR_BBPOST I suspect that if the game has an independent, he's it. Now he claims to be a Tracker, having targeted NA and dropping out of my chat. "Party Spy for Trump" seems like a flavor fit for a Tracker, but I still don't know if I can trust him. If he's an indie and we lynch him, we waste another shot at lynching scum.

I also believe that he's neutrally-aligned. My main concern is that whatever tracking results he produces aren't to be trusted. I don't like how he's using his limited posting either.

I agree with your other observations as well.

[Kraj]

The "you think I'm scum because I can't English" has me very convinced of his scumminess. He never addressed my points against him either

I'll agree it's scummy that his participation level has been consistently low and he keeps offering excuses instead of content. That said,

Just to clarify a bit more, Pedro's behavior during NA's lynch was odd to me at the moment, and in light of the flip it was more so.

Please explain how his behavior was odd, and why NA turning up scum made it worse.

I also don't get these "such and such is scummy but he's more likely to be neutral" statements. We know there are mafia in the game, we don't know there's a neutral, we're only assuming based on very little information. If someone seems non-town, then they are probably mafia.

[( G_R )]

The "you think I'm scum because I can't English" has me very convinced of his scumminess. He never addressed my points against him either

I'll agree it's scummy that his participation level has been consistently low and he keeps offering excuses instead of content. That said,

Just to clarify a bit more, Pedro's behavior during NA's lynch was odd to me at the moment, and in light of the flip it was more so.

Please explain how his behavior was odd, and why NA turning up scum made it worse.

I also don't get these "such and such is scummy but he's more likely to be neutral" statements. We know there are mafia in the game, we don't know there's a neutral, we're only assuming based on very little information. If someone seems non-town, then they are probably mafia.

He said he thought NA and I were summy because of lack of interaction. At the time it wasn't clear to me that ham and io2 knew for a fact that NA was scum, so I was thinking that scum was involved in the wagon, and Pedro was (along with Stardust) one of the first to mention NA as a lynch candidate but he wasn't on the wagon. That's when I posted this:

Why Pedro over NA?

NA's lynch is based on what, really? Inactivity? I read his posts and nothing stands out as really scummy to me. Yet, he's close to a lynch, so I looked at those both on his wagon and off it. I believe one scum is on the wagon and the other isn't. Pedro's tells in my eyes are two: he's the first to single out NA as a lynch candidate, yet he's not in the wagon and what did it for me was something I've said myself in two games while playing scum: "you guys think I'm scummy because language barrier".

you got caught.

After the flip, given that I was obviously wrong about the wagon thing I went back to reread Pedro, and these ringed even more bells instead of making me feel better about him:

I didn't want to hammer on NightArcher but I agree with what you've done guys.

Come on Pedro/Red, hammer your scum buddy! It will give you extra town cred, I promise.

That's exactly why I didn't want to hammer on NA.

Calm down GR, we can lynch Pedro after we take care of NA.

Let's make a plan for D2 in case of whatever happens during N2 and how NA will flip.

If he's scum, you'll all get in the train of lynching me. I got that.
If he's town, ham and imopen2 will be in a bad situation because everyone would be suspicious on their plays on D1.

Again, I repeat clearly that I don't want to hammer on NA because :
-It's not needed at the moment, he will certainly get killed, or in case of emergency I'll hammer and I have no problem against that.
-I don't want to appear as the scum player who hammer on a "confirmed" scum Buddy to get town cred.

I think there's some consensus about there being a third party, given that Manders assigned purple to the faction in the first post and Red is a good candidate for that, but so is Pedro in case he isn't scum. Check this one out:

Hello there,

My little point of view of what's going on :

Red is highly probably scum, ham as some serious tracks on him. And his defense is very poor. Else is a bad player as I am, else is scum. And I do think he has more experience than me in Mafia games.

I have the feeling as strong as for Red scum that there is a third party is this game, otherwise it would have been unbalanced. But I have no idea of what are their goal and how many they are. Could be GR for example.

Vote Red

Emphasis mine.

[( G_R )]

It's "rang". Isn't it "rang"?

[( G_R )]

Where did the Canadian go?

[Manders]

The game has grown stagnant. I am instituting a deadline 2 weeks from the date/time of this post.

[hamfactorial]

Red:

You've had several days where you could speak with us, but didn't contribute.

Why not?

[RedNihilist]

I'm actually tired of fighting windmills.
I'm town and you guys are just wasting time speculating on the setup because you think I must be neutral rather than just accept the fact that I'm a bad town player.

With me and you being town and G_R not hammering when he could have we're left with Kraj, Stardust and Pedro.
I'll bet on them in this order.

Just choose one and go for it or just lynch me and bite your hands afterwards.

[Manders]

Post counts for Day 2 as of right now:

1. Stardust: XVI
2. Pedrobear: IIII
3. RedNihilist: XXIX
4. Kraj: VII
5. ( G_R ): XVI
6. hamfactorial: XXXII

Please be aware to avoid being modkilled. If the day goes to the deadline, anyone with <14 posts will be modkilled. NO EXCEPTIONS.

[Kraj]

I could accept that you're a 'bad townie player', and I could even maybe buy that every time you've been caught lying you really were just making mistakes. But I can't get over that you're not even trying. You post plenty but without taking stances. You've made no cases. You've voted 3 times total; the first was unexplained and could have just been a rando; the second one was against me for making a case against you; and the last was explicitly just because Ham voted. After you started the day by attacking Ham for likely being a traitor in the masons. And then when a quick wagon forms on you, you get belligerent and then vanish, claiming you don't care anymore. The only point in your favor I can see is that you have demonstrated an ability, which is something over unclaimed players, but there's nothing inherently town about it, and you also happened to gain the ability of the player the mafia killed.

So, Ham and GR, why is Pedro or Stardust a better lynch today than Red?

[hamfactorial]

I can't argue for lynching anyone but Red, my scum read on Stardust isn't as strong.

[( G_R )]

IMO because Red's ability makes the most sense as neutral, then as town, least as scum. But if you guys want to go ahead I can support it. Lynched neutral is better than mislynched Townie, and my #1 suspect might die to rule 11 anyway...

Post moar Kraj, you gon get kill!

[( G_R )]

Manders, who gets modkilled if I hammer within the next 12 hours?

[RedNihilist]

After you started the day by attacking Ham for likely being a traitor in the masons.

Hi ham, explain that.

[RedNihilist]

After telling myself that I'm an idiot for just posting that and meet my daily quota before being able to do something else, I've realized that if G_R wants to lynch me in ~12 hours we'd end up with me and (I think) ham dead.

I'd rather suicide by exceeding my limit (I think that's not an unfair mode, I apologize if you consider this cheating) so you guys can finally look in the right direction and lynch scum before night.

See ya guys

[Manders]

RedNihilist has been modkilled. He was Jeb Bush, Town Party Poser

With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

All votes have been reset.

[hamfactorial]

Vote Stardust

[( G_R )]

Okay, unless my reads are all messed up and Kraj is scum we can win this right now. Trusting ham's reads as well.

Vote Stardust

[Manders]

Vote Count 2.5

Stardust (2): hamfactorial; ( G_R )

Not Voting (3): Kraj; Stardust; Pedrobear


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch

Let me know if I missed anything.

[Kraj]

Mod: is the deadline still in effect? Will there still be postcount modkills if we lynch well before the deadline?

This is a lot to process. I wish Red had played very differently, but he did take away a mafia NK by preventing his lynch. My behavior read says Pedro is my next top suspect, but I was completely wrong on Red. I still see no reason to distrust Ham.

I haven't gotten a scum read on Stardust's content, but I agree his lurkiness and shoulder shrugging are scummy. I've got a few suspicious notes on him, like in 142 when he seemed to overreact to Ham genuinely calling him scum. On the other hand, he put NA to L-2 which was a key vote on his wagon. If Ham, GR, Red, and ColK (he had Stardust as scum on his TS list before D1 ended) all think he's scum I'm inclined to agree. Except...

I'm strongly concerned about GR. As with Stardust I've not found his content to be scummy. I've generally read him as town, and often agreed with him, like in post 111 when he points out all of Red's posts are trivial. However, he very vocally discouraged NA's lynch, which is the strongest individual piece of scum behavioral evidence we have.

When ColK puts NA at L-1, in the very next post GR moves his vote from Red to Pedro, the second most popular target at the time. Then in 161 he further argues against NAs lynch, and calls Ham out for wanting to lynch NA too quickly in 178.

The quick vote on Stardust further concerns me, but his "if we just lynch Stardust we win right now" comment makes me slam the brakes. This reads like dangling a carrot in front of us, and I've seen skilled scum players use subtle manipulations like this.

Obviously GR will disagree with me and Stardust will agree, while Pedro will probably continue to be confused. So before I make a decision, Ham: what do you think about my points re GR?

[hamfactorial]

I'm not sure about GR, but I'll re-read and see what sticks out.

Red brought up the point in our QT that he spent a long time at L-1 without Pedro or GR hammering him, even though he was the prime suspect for a lynch.

I discounted it at the time because I didn't have confirmation that Red was town. Now that I've seen his flip, I trust his previous reads far more.

[Pedrobear]

What about you claim Stardust ?

I think that should be the best solution to a town win.

[Pedrobear]

Unvote

I'm not feeling this NA wagon...

Today's lynch should be Pedro...

Vote Pedrobear

I don't quote because it was the vote was directed to me, it could have been anyboby else but that way you'll get Kraj point on GR. Which I totally agree with and we should have looked at it before targetting our suspicion on Red.

[hamfactorial]

unvote while we discuss all this

[Manders]

Mod: is the deadline still in effect? Will there still be postcount modkills if we lynch well before the deadline?

The deadline is still in effect.

Modkills for post count only come into effect if, at the end of the Day, someone has posted less than the required 1 post per 2 days. (I.E. Today is day 16 of D2. Anyone with 8 or less posts for the Day would be modkilled once the Day ended if it ended today.)

The post count modkills are as a result of rule #11.

[Manders]

I will be moving this weekend and am taking the next 2 days off from work (where I do most of my work), so I will not be around as much as I usually am. I will TRY to check the game, but can make no promises.

If something is desperately needed, have GR, ham, or Kraj contact me on FB. TIA for your understanding and patience.

[Kraj]

I hope the move goes smoothly for you, Manders

Red brought up the point in our QT that he spent a long time at L-1 without Pedro or GR hammering him, even though he was the prime suspect for a lynch.

I discounted it at the time because I didn't have confirmation that Red was town. Now that I've seen his flip, I trust his previous reads far more.

I agree, mostly since behaviorally I don't see much evidence against GR except for what I pointed out. However, if GR and Pedro both genuinely believed Red was neutral like they said, then as scum either would have incentive not to hammer him. So I think not hammering is a null. To me, it's about whether GR's NA defense is compelling enough to lynch just on that.

GR: you preferred a Pedro lynch on day 1. You're now following Ham's lead on Stardust. Why not Pedro now?

[( G_R )]

Because Pedro, my main suspect had 4 posts and was dead to rule 11 anyway, had you hammered. Your lack of action confirms my read on you as town. My play was having all townies in the wagon and both the scum and the neutral dead at the end of the day. I also had my ability as a Hail Mary had things gone awry.

I explained why I was concerned about the lynch of NA in an earlier post.

[( G_R )]

This is the post: viewtopic.php?f=13&t=3434&p=298133#p298133

[Kraj]

Because Pedro, my main suspect had 4 posts and was dead to rule 11 anyway, had you hammered. Your lack of action confirms my read on you as town. My play was having all townies in the wagon and both the scum and the neutral dead at the end of the day. I also had my ability as a Hail Mary had things gone awry.

I explained why I was concerned about the lynch of NA in an earlier post.

Indeed you did, and I don't take issue with it.