Financial Accessibility of Modern

[Col. Khaddafi]

I've been having the impression as of late that Modern card prices have been exploding.

So, out of curiosity, I've been checking the prices of popular Modern decks against Legacy ones, for example, here are the links for the last SCG Modern/Legacy decks, TCG prices:

http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck_sear ... n+-+1%2F25
http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck_sear ... n+-+1%2F25

Looking at the mid prices, Modern decks cost as low as 500, up to 2,000+
Legacy decks can be had from about 700 up to 3,000+

ofc, this is a cursory check, and the sampling is short, but the point I am trying to make here is that if Modern has been created as a new eternal format that would be more accessible, this doesn't seem to be working, since cards that are not even on the reserve list seem to be reaching Legacy-level prices (Tarmogoyf, Bob, Liliana, etc...). Furthermore, the Modern Masters reprints seem to have had the odd effect of making some reprinted cards even more expensive (though a few ones fell in prices), and the increasing MSRP prices of these reprint sets don't seem to hint at a change in this situation.

So, at this point, one can legitimately ask: What is the difference -financially-wise- between Modern and Legacy? Why even play Modern if its going to cost you the same than a Legacy deck, and with a smaller cardpool? I know that this is a reductive reasoning, and of course there are metagame considerations to factor into, but my question is:

Where is Modern going to financially-wise? Is this healthy for the format?

Discuss!

[Stardust]

The difference is that Wizards can make money off of Modern. Modern Masters did increase the supply while making Wizards a shit-ton of money. The reason prices still went up is that a lot of people were interested in entering Modern (or, at least, getting the staples), but were waiting for the reprints. When they came, people bought, so the price didn't go down. When it became apparent that the price wasn't going to go down, even more people bought. I suspect that Wizards is going to try to balance this a bit with MM2, all while making even more money. Increased cost of boosters makes investors happy, but I doubt we'll see the short supply we saw last time. The demand is there, and Wizards will want to fill that niche. When they do, prices will go down a bit, but not by a lot. There are just too many people who are perfectly happy spending $1000 on a deck, and plenty more that are perfectly happy spending $900 so long as they feel like it's an investment. As long as those people exist in enough numbers, prices won't go down because there is just so much demand. If that's not Wizards' target market, they need a different strategy, but they're probably perfectly happy making millions every year on a side product, so I really don't see that changing.

I have no comment on the health of the format other than obviously a lot of people are playing and I don't see that changing either.

[Thrillho]

The cards you're saying are reaching legacy level prices are staples in legacy.

The fact that Modern has grown in popularity and the reprint sets and decks meant to increase supply for the format are not only unavailable in quantities to meet that increased demand, they're printed in quantities so limited that they don't even effectively control demand at time of printing (case and point, there was no difference in the value of a MM1 Tarmogoyf or FS one following MM1 printing).

Wizards coddling of secondary market forces with jacked up MSRP and extremely limited releases of products meant to alleviate the costs of Modern are entirely to blame. If they treated MM like a fire set release with a possibly I flated MSRP because your entire booster pack is good cards (allegedly) that would make some sense, but all they did was create a market where now the 10 people with MM Bobs have a market of people who want him with alternate art.

[Stardust]

Do you think Wizards will do the same thing with MM2? I have a feeling we're going to see a much bigger print run this time around.

[Kaitscralt]

depending on what's in the set, it could be worse

[Thrillho]

My guess is the difference between a ftv vs mm1 in terms of relative availability

[rcwraspy]

This is obvious, but I'll say it anyway. MM1 offered a small increase in card availability but it also ushered in a large number of new players to the format. The number of new players far out-stripped the number of new cards added to the pool, thereby spiking some card prices. This is a "first world problem" for WOTC because it means they have a very captive audience for additional reprints - but they have to act fairly quickly before that dies down.

I think 2 things were the result of this. First, the change in block structure and standard rotation. This ostensibly (since it hasn't happened yet) lets them jam more Modern-powered reprints into Standard because they'll rotate out more quickly.

Second, WOTC's initial announcement that it was removing Modern from the Pro Tour. I know Pro Tour players often bitch about Modern since they don't like it, and that's widely viewed as the cause, but I wouldn't put it past WOTC to attempt to remove Modern from the PT to stem the tide of players entering the format - for the time being. Once they had their feet under them with prices/reprints they could re-introduce it. This is both highly speculative and also moot, since they reversed course after public outcry.

[Blackhound]

Lol

[Blackhound]

Also wny did blood moon blow up.

[hamfactorial]

Heavy red decks aren't at the top of the meta now, so everyone is trying to hose greedy mana bases.

[hamfactorial]

Tron and Amulet Bloom are the big targets, I reckon.

[Thrillho]

Blood Moon makes it almost impossible for some decks to play Magic without preemptively building their mana base and putting basic lands into play in anticipation of said Blood Moon. It's one of the rare absolute sideboard cards that takes some decks or builds of decks out of the equation when you draw and resolve it (re: pros complaining about what a crapshoot building a sideboard for Modern is after that last Modern PT). It also hasn't been printed to death since the pre-M20XX core sets were not very popular, MM1 had a super limited release, and that leaves Chronicles and The Dark, which is the least expensive printing of Blood Moon and had a limited printing, respectively.

Also, red is one of the most powerful colors in Modern right now between Kolaghan's Command, Splinter Twin, Lightning Bolt, and various small aggressive creature decks that include Red, so having the most powerful hoser in the color you're most likely to include in your deck means everyone's going to need several to complete their maindeck or sideboard.

Also, a surge in Modern events is causing prices to spike, particularly among cards that haven't been and likely won't be reprinted anytime soon.