LEGO Movie Mafia - Game Over - Town Win

[Azrael]

If Az is town, it's because Imopen's power was tampered with. Imopen could easily reuse the ability tonight on Az, either clearing or damning Az for sure.

But if Imopen is an innocent townie cop, like he says and *someone* just tampered with his results, then why the hell did he survive CK's vig kill?

Why would the scum choose to protect someone from kills who isn't on their team?

That puts you into the realm of either CK being a liar, or Imopen being a liar.

And that means we're looking at a scenario where there MUST be two scum. There are too many conflicting claims amongst the four of us for two of us NOT to be liars.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ok, Az, try this: What's worse? Lynching you or no-lynching?

One of those is happening toDay.

That depends on you.

I don't know what your ability tonight will be, and don't want to know. But that's a pretty relevant consideration.

I don't know whether you'll be more willing to lynch red and Imopen if CK is killed and flips town. That's a pretty relevant consideration too.

If we do lynch me today, we're entirely dependent on your secret ability going off as you intend it to, to win. We just plain lose if your ability doesn't stop the mafia from winning.

If we no lynch today, we're entirely depending on the surviving players tomorrow being willing to lynch Imopen and Red in succession.

Frankly, I'm a little unsure how you went from putting Imopen up to L-1, and trusting me enough to have a hammer option, to ruling out an Imopen lynch as even a possibility.

And let's say your one-scum theory is correct, Dechs, and I were the last scum. Under this theory, the only reason I didn't hammer Imopen was because I knew I'd be lynched the next day. If this were so, then we could mislynch Imopen today, and it wouldn't matter at all. You'd still be able to just lynch me tomorrow, and win.

But let's say I'm right. Let's say there are two scum left, and it's either me and CK, or it's Imopen and Red. If it were me and CK, our best chance would have been for me to take the hammer. I could boost him, he'd have a RB or a vig shot and/or a NK, easy path to victory. I don't think me and CK makes much sense as a theory because of that.

So if YOU believe the alternatives are either a 1-scum Azrael team, or a two-scum Imopen and Red team, then your choice ought to be clear. You can win against me in a single lynch, at any time, if I'm the only scum. You could mislynch today, and still win tomorrow. But to win against a two-scum team of Imopen and red requires you to lynch today, against one of their two members, or else we're completely dependent on your night ability working as you hope for to avoid an immediate loss tonight.

In order:

Stop probing. You want it to sound like you're not, but you are.
If CK flips town, I'm really going to want to lynch Imopen.
You just did it again.

"If we no lynch today, we're entirely depending on the surviving players tomorrow being willing to lynch Imopen and Red in succession."
Again, you're completely ignoring a lot of possibilities here. Imopen could have been tampered with by either CK, Red, LMD or, hell, even me. Red would still say he's town, especially if he tampered with the ability, and it would guarantee two mislynches.

"Frankly, I'm a little unsure how you went from putting Imopen up to L-1, and trusting me enough to have a hammer option, to ruling out an Imopen lynch as even a possibility."
Imopen is only scum if there's two left and two scum left doesn't make sense.

I don't think you're the last scum. I just don't see another plausible lynch today. You've got a cop telling us you're scum and another cop backing it up. I really think someone tampered with Imopen and I'd like him to try it again tonight on you. Tomorrow, he'll say "oh shit, Az is town" or be dead from the NK so he can't do that.

You just did it again.

[Dechs Kaison]

If Az is town, it's because Imopen's power was tampered with. Imopen could easily reuse the ability tonight on Az, either clearing or damning Az for sure.

But if Imopen is an innocent townie cop, like he says and *someone* just tampered with his results, then why the hell did he survive CK's vig kill?

Why would the scum choose to protect someone from kills who isn't on their team?

That puts you into the realm of either CK being a liar, or Imopen being a liar.

And that means we're looking at a scenario where there MUST be two scum. There are too many conflicting claims amongst the four of us for two of us NOT to be liars.

CK could be lying and be on his own.

[Dechs Kaison]

Can you guys just trust me on this? I need another Day.

[Azrael]

I'm not probing you. If you say what it is you can do, if you even start HINTING at it, we almost certainly lose. I just have a hard time entirely trusting you that there's nothing that could possibly screw you up tonight. There is nothing you should try to comment say or do about that, or else we're screwed, but that's where I am - you asked what my analysis of the two scenarios are. My analysis involves a certain amount of distrust that there's *nothing* the scum can do to defeat whatever tricks you have up your sleeve, so yeah, that path isn't my first choice.

PPE: I think that's highly unlikely, but I can't say it's impossible. You could ask him what he built last night, I suppose.

[Dechs Kaison]

The scum can't do anything about me because I've done the math, and no matter who the remaining scum is, there's a more important target than me.

[Dechs Kaison]

Well, it's not really math, but it's an analysis. I drew up charts and everything.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ham, thank this post if that counts as math. I can see you watching this thread.

[Dechs Kaison]

Az, you've got to realize that you're the only viable lynch today. There's a cop with backup telling us you're scum. If you really are town and you really do believe that the scum is a team, then you're only option to win at this point is to vote no-lynch. You're not going to convince us to hang Imopen.

[Dechs Kaison]

your*

Son of a bitch, I can't believe I did that.

[Col. Khaddafi]

If Az is town, it's because Imopen's power was tampered with. Imopen could easily reuse the ability tonight on Az, either clearing or damning Az for sure.

But if Imopen is an innocent townie cop, like he says and *someone* just tampered with his results, then why the hell did he survive CK's vig kill?

Why would the scum choose to protect someone from kills who isn't on their team?

That puts you into the realm of either CK being a liar, or Imopen being a liar.

And that means we're looking at a scenario where there MUST be two scum. There are too many conflicting claims amongst the four of us for two of us NOT to be liars.

CK could be lying and be on his own.

Yeah but why would I expose myself so soon? I wouldn't be able to win.

[Dechs Kaison]

Maybe because you think we're going to hang Az first, then go after Imopen when he shows up town?

[Azrael]

The scum can't do anything about me because I've done the math, and no matter who the remaining scum is, there's a more important target than me.

Alright. Let's proceed from this premise, then and see what scenarios we'd be looking at. From a neutral bystander perspective he scum have four feasible targets:

LMD
Dechs
Imopen
CK

They won't target LMD, because he's less of a direct role-based threat to them, as far as they know.

If they target CK, he's proven to not be a liar, town *should* lynch Imopen and Red, and win.

If they target Imopen, *I'm* proven to be a liar, I die, town wins or searches for my buddy, probably CK, and probably wins.

But I think there's a pretty decent chance they'll target you, Dechs. You seem to think that they won't do that, because of the threat of Imopen's subsequent investigation and CK's vig-kill. But neither of those are real threats.

CK's vig-kill is only of value if using it doesn't end the game. In a no-lynch scenario, it will. CK could theoretically use it on Imopen just to see if it's going to be blocked a 2nd time, but if you didn't believe him the first time he said the kill failed, I don't see the use in repeating the exercise twice.

Imopen's investigation is only valuable if it's believable/tells us something new. It won't. Tomorrow, he'll almost certainly investigate CK. And he'll say CK is either or town or scum. But we'll still have to decide whether we believe him, or not, despite the fact that his ability could have been tampered with a 2nd time, according to your theory at least. Imopen's investigations do us no good unless we know we can trust Imopen, and if you think his results can be tampered with, they're worthless to us.

[Dechs Kaison]

CK, you're talking to someone who, as scum, pushed a failed vig kill that was town on town into two mislynches.

[Dechs Kaison]

The scum can't do anything about me because I've done the math, and no matter who the remaining scum is, there's a more important target than me.

If they target Imopen, *I'm* proven to be a liar, I die, town wins or searches for my buddy, probably CK, and probably wins.

You and CK cannot be a scum team. You guys would have already won were that the case. If they kill Imopen, it damns you to a mislynch. I actually highly suspect this is what's going to happen tonight. If we have a kind of doctor left, someone needs to protect Imopen (again, haha).

[Dechs Kaison]

Also, Az, you're looking at it the wrong way. You're looking at the targets. You need to look at the scum. If Imopen is scum, he wants to kill X. If Red is scum, he wants to kill Y. I think that's the better way to approach it.

[Dechs Kaison]

>.>
<.<

I am aware that I, of all people, just tried to teach a mafia veteran how to predict a night kill.

[Dechs Kaison]

Az, you've got to realize that you're the only viable lynch today. There's a cop with backup telling us you're scum. If you really are town and you really do believe that the scum is a team, then your only option to win at this point is to vote no-lynch. You're not going to convince us to hang Imopen.

Repeating this for emphasis and because I wanted to fix the goddamned you're.

[Azrael]

Az, you've got to realize that you're the only viable lynch today. There's a cop with backup telling us you're scum. If you really are town and you really do believe that the scum is a team, then you're only option to win at this point is to vote no-lynch. You're not going to convince us to hang Imopen.

Imopen isn't a cop though, Dechs.

The nature of this game is that there are no cops, no doctors, no nurses. There's just whatever we say that we are.

In ordinary games, you trust the cop because you KNOW they are the cop. There can be only one cop in a typical setup. If someone says he's the cop, he is. You can trust him.

Here, Imopen saying he's a cop here means nothing. Anyone could say that. If the game ends before anyone can do anything about a lie, why shouldn't the scum lie and say they took a cop investigation? No one can contradict them soon enough for it to matter.

You're looking at a simple he-said, she-said scenario. It's not a question of who's the cop. There isn't one. It comes down to my word that I'm town, and CK's word that his kill failed, against Red's word that Imopen is town, and Imopen's word that I'm scum.

Or you can try to second-guess scenarios where the scum have some device that makes everything complicated and awful. But at the end of the day, there's no special reason to take imopen's word over CK's word, or Red's word, over mine. There's no guarantee in this setup that any one of us isn't lying.

[Azrael]

The scum can't do anything about me because I've done the math, and no matter who the remaining scum is, there's a more important target than me.

If they target Imopen, *I'm* proven to be a liar, I die, town wins or searches for my buddy, probably CK, and probably wins.

You and CK cannot be a scum team. You guys would have already won were that the case. If they kill Imopen, it damns you to a mislynch. I actually highly suspect this is what's going to happen tonight. If we have a kind of doctor left, someone needs to protect Imopen (again, haha).

Agreed.

Also, Az, you're looking at it the wrong way. You're looking at the targets. You need to look at the scum. If Imopen is scum, he wants to kill X. If Red is scum, he wants to kill Y. I think that's the better way to approach it.

Under any configuration of the scum that's out there, they want to kill you, Dechs. You're the tipping point of this game. CK and Imopen are useless, I'm useless, LMD, nobody knows. If we no-lynch, you're the kill, and we gain nothing.

[Azrael]

Agreed about me and CK not being a viable scum team, that is.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah, I'm aware this isn't an ordinary game. That's why we need to push for a no lynch.

No one is going to take your word over Imopen's and Red's, especially when three scum runs counter to intuition. Your only hope here is a no-lynch.

[Azrael]

And again, I'm not saying you shouldn't kill me, Dechs. I'm not saying to take my word on faith. All I'm saying is that you should kill Imopen, first, b/c he's NK immune and you can then verify his investigation, and THEN have somebody vig me off.

If you think I'm the only scum left, OR that CK is the only scum left, you lose nothing by an Imopen lynch. The town doesn't lose. The town still has another day of life in it to make good on lynching or vigging either me, or CK.

[Dechs Kaison]

Alright, it's after midnight here and I'm wiped out. I'm going to be viewing properties all through tomorrow and probably not have access to the internet.

I've said all I can. I've been pretty impulsive today and I've regretted most of that, but this is something I am absolutely sold on. No lynch is our best option. I need two of you guys to trust me, that's all. Please.

G'night.

[Col. Khaddafi]

Maybe because you think we're going to hang Az first, then go after Imopen when he shows up town?

yeah well there's still you and LMD, assuming I wouldn't be able to NK anyone. Not worth it when I could have stood idle and watch Az get lynched, then NK someone else and seeing imopen2 get lynched the day after for a false cop claim. Your theory makes no sense.

[Azrael]

CK knows he's not lying about the failed vig kill on Imopen. That's one vote that *may* very well come down in favor of killing Imopen before killing me.

And YOU believe that me and CK can't be scum together. That being the case, if you believe that only a single scum is left and it's either me or CK or maybe LMD as a long-shot, you're looking at a chance to take out two targets of your choice tomorrow. There would be 1 scum amongst four players. I would promise to hyperboost CK, and CK would promise to use the vig-kill on me. If CK refuses to use the vig-kill on me, you lynch him as lying scum. If I fail to hyperboost CK, you lynch me as lying scum. And if we're both town, and CK does use the vig-kill on me, you'd still get the chance to take out CK or Red or LMD with the lynch.

If there's only one scum left, you're almost certainly going to win. You'll get three shots to take them out. But if you're wrong about there being only a single scum left, we have only a single lynch, plus *mystery night stuff*.

I'm sure whatever you're planning is good, but is it better than having three town-controlled kills that could be used to cover all three of the scenarios that you're worried about: scum Imopen, scum Azrael, or scum CK?

[Azrael]

Maybe because you think we're going to hang Az first, then go after Imopen when he shows up town?

yeah well there's still you and LMD, assuming I wouldn't be able to NK anyone. Not worth it when I could have stood idle and watch Az get lynched, then NK someone else and seeing imopen2 get lynched the day after for a false cop claim. Your theory makes no sense.

Mmm.

In a scenario where CK was scum, and we lynched me first, then Imopen, we'd be going from 6p, 1s down to 4p, 1s, down to 3p 1s. The remaining two town players could plan to chrono/boost roleblock CK for the win.

Or, you could follow the plan I laid out in my previous post, where CK is ordered to vig me tomorrow. If CK is the only scum left, he can't win this game.

If I'm only the scum left, I can't win the game either.

If you correctly rule out me and CK being a team together, the only feasible scum team that can still win this game, is a joint scum team of Red and Imopen. Don't ignore that threat.

[Stardust]

Votecount!

Azrael (2): imopen2, RedNihilist
No Lynch (1): Dechs Kaison

Not voting: Azrael, Col. Khaddafi, Lord_Mcdonalds

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[imopen2]

Alright, it's after midnight here and I'm wiped out. I'm going to be viewing properties all through tomorrow and probably not have access to the internet.

I've said all I can. I've been pretty impulsive today and I've regretted most of that, but this is something I am absolutely sold on. No lynch is our best option. I need two of you guys to trust me, that's all. Please.

G'night.

I can't do that, sorry. There are too many unknowns (scum powers) and I have a mod-confirmed scum. I refuse to vote anyone or anything else until he is dead

[Mcdonalds]

Long weekend, apologize for the lack of posts, if this game continues on much longer, I will likely be mia for 1-2 days at a time due to work, school and other events occuring

Also had a bit to drink (saint arnold's endaevour is good shit if you ever find some) so this is the only legible post I can conjour up

Yeah, I'm aware this isn't an ordinary game. That's why we need to push for a no lynch.

Even factoring in the fact this isn't an ordinary game, mafia is still ultimately a game of information, we don't gain any information about the set up/scum via a no lynch, if anything the scum gain more because they are making the decisions, and they are controlling who dies.

A no lynch favors them, as they are the ones making decisions, we must be proactive in our approach

[imopen2]

Ham's tips for manipulating women are not as good as kpaca's

[RedNihilist]

So, this is my plan of action:
- lynch Azrael;
- see him flip scum;
- ...?
- profit.

In the unlikely case he flips town:
- lynch imopen2 aka the-guy-immune-to-town-powers;
- see him flip scum;
- profit.

Someone please come up with counterexamples.

[RedNihilist]

About imopen's eventual immunity:
if he lied to me and survived CK's shot, I guess he's just been given that kind of role.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah, I'm aware this isn't an ordinary game. That's why we need to push for a no lynch.

Even factoring in the fact this isn't an ordinary game, mafia is still ultimately a game of information, we don't gain any information about the set up/scum via a no lynch, if anything the scum gain more because they are making the decisions, and they are controlling who dies.

A no lynch favors them, as they are the ones making decisions, we must be proactive in our approach

A no lynch favors them less than a mislynch, which is what I'm sure we're about to get if we go with the information we have. Waiting a day gives us powers and the chance to learn much more. CK will have his vig shot and we can leverage that like the lynch we lose today.

[RedNihilist]

What happens if we don't lynch and scum kills CK?

[Dechs Kaison]

The other four townies get to finish building powers and Imopen can retry the cop thing so we can be more certain.

[Azrael]

The other four townies get to finish building powers and Imopen can retry the cop thing so we can be more certain.

Please explain how Imopen coming up with another cop result tells us *anything*.

We still have only chance to lynch correctly. We can either trust Imopen's word today, or trust his word then, and a 2nd result that could be equally fake makes no difference.

The advantage of taking an actual lynch shot today is that it won't end the game. We'll have two shots to get it right, not just a single one. It's less useful to worry about mislynching, than it is to worry about the consequences of when you mislynch, or who you mislynch. We don't want *one* shot to get it right with lots of information. We want two or possibly three shots to get it right, and our 2nd shot will have even more information than we'd get if we no-lynched today. But we don't get multiple shots if we let Imopen skate through today. We only have one way to deal with him, the lynch, and it won't be ready in time.

Did you read my analysis that demonstrates that the only scum team which you believe in as a possibility that can feasibly win is a Red/Imopen team? If it's a single scum, no matter who it is, they've already lost, even if we mislynch AND mis-vig AND mislynch someone again. That's not what you have to worry about. The only thing that can stop us now, is if we fail to play safe against the two-scum gambit.

[Azrael]

From DK's perspective, anyways. I'm not sure it's quite so cut and dried as that, but I do know we're probably going down in flames if we mislynch on me, leave someone who's demonstrated inexplicable untargetability alive, and eliminate the only guy who took steps to give CK another vig-shot for tomorrow.

[Azrael]

Also, no-lynch does NOT allow us to leverage CK's vig-shot as an extra lynch. It's not an extra lynch if you lose immediately if you're wrong about your target.

The no-lynch plan eliminates all our margin for error. Lynching me instead of Imopen eliminates all our margin for error. Lynching Imopen today, allowing me to activate CK, is our last chance to generate breathing room for the town to make a mistake, to allow us to have multiple shots at taking out the scum, and have multiple alignments flip up before we have to make a truly final decision.

[Dechs Kaison]

The other four townies get to finish building powers and Imopen can retry the cop thing so we can be more certain.

Please explain how Imopen coming up with another cop result tells us *anything*.

If he was tampered with, the tamper ability must be out of shots by now. I think you're both town and he'll get a town result on you tonight.

The advantage of taking an actual lynch shot today is that it won't end the game. We'll have two shots to get it right, not just a single one. It's less useful to worry about mislynching, than it is to worry about the consequences of when you mislynch, or who you mislynch. We don't want *one* shot to get it right with lots of information. We want two or possibly three shots to get it right, and our 2nd shot will have even more information than we'd get if we no-lynched today. But we don't get multiple shots if we let Imopen skate through today. We only have one way to deal with him, the lynch, and it won't be ready in time.

Did you read my analysis that demonstrates that the only scum team which you believe in as a possibility that can feasibly win is a Red/Imopen team? If it's a single scum, no matter who it is, they've already lost, even if we mislynch AND mis-vig AND mislynch someone again. That's not what you have to worry about. The only thing that can stop us now, is if we fail to play safe against the two-scum gambit.

Arrite. Fine. Get Imopen to three votes. I'll lynch him. When he flips town, we'll kill you tomorrow and throw this game.