Dies to Removal

So, if we're finally getting Competetive part of the forum available - we can slowly start to discuss about how meta looks right now and how it's going to shape in the future.
As SCG Open showed us, currently people focus on four decks in terms of chosing what to play.

1. Red Deck Wins
Important Cards: Fanatic of Mogis, Chandra Pyromaster, Rakdos Cackler, Lightning Strike, Magma Jet
Best Matchup: Esper Control
Worst Matchup: 2-colored decks with Anger of the Gods
Vulnerability: Anger of the Gods, Supreme Verdict

2. UW Control
Important Cards: Aetherling, Elspeth, Jace AoT, Supreme Verdict, Sphinx's Revelation
Best Matchup: non-R Aggros, Midranges
Worst Matchup: Ux Control
Vulnerability: Skullcrack, Slaughter Games

3. Esper Control
Important Cards: Toughtseize, Aetherling, Jace, Ashiok, Supreme Verdict,
Sphinx's Revelation
Best Matchup: UW Control, non-R Aggro/Midrange
Worst Matchup: anything with Burning Earth
Vulnerability: Burning Earth, Skullcrack, Slaughter Games

4. Gruul Smash
Important Cards: Elvish Mystic, Polukranos, Domri Rade, Mizzium Mortars
Best Matchup: RDW
Worst Matchup: UW/Esper Control
Vulnerabilities: Doom Blade, Supreme Verdict

So, what is going to happen sooner or later in my opinion.
RDW will get extremally popular over the first few weeks which will actually motivate people to play decks with Anger of the Gods. That's a moment for rinse and shine for UR Control and Boros brews. Actually UR is really well positioned at the moment as the only bad matchup it has is Gruul midrange.

Esper will slowly evolve into UB Control. Esper even with the right tools, has pretty awfull matchup against RDW as all they need to do is dropping Burning Earth into field. With Esper tapping out for Verdict or Jace it's not that hard, even when deck is permission-
heavy. White cards will become irrelevant there. As Sphinx's Revelation can be easily replaced with Opportunity - all UB needs is meta shifting away from RDW to win all the UW matchups and still have decent game against midrange decks.

Gruul in my humble opinion will evolve into Mono Green Beats. Planeswalkers Gruul plays are not strong enough to justify shaky manabase. Especially since Domri already restricts Gruul players from playing the best red cards - burn spells. Nylea solves a lot of problems Mono Green always had, lack of evasion and lack of mana sinks.

There's also Br Aggro being brewed over here on DTR. Results are very promising, hoping to see more of it. BR is well positioned against Ux Control as Slaughter Games is one of the best answers against Aetherling - but I still don't believe in it's matchup against RDW.

So, Yarpus Predictions for Meta (sooner or later):
1. RDW
2. Rakdos Aggro
3. Mono Green/GR Midrange
4. UW Control
5. UB Control
6. UR Control

What isn't there to believe in the RDW matchup for Rakdos? RDW actually just loses to a resolved Exava. They play similar removal packages and stuff. They're practically the same deck.

I definitely like your reasoning.

I'm running out the Mono G list you posted (with the hydras over pit fights) and I'm actually beating U/W control its crazy.

Theres definitely something to be said about not having to play taplands, and its always had a pretty solid mono Red match-up...

RDW is a bit more consistent and faster than Rakdos. especially if youre forced to be on the defense, unleashed creatures dont normally play defense very well

its not unwinnable, but Reckoner RDW or just even young pyromancer has come out ahead of the rakdos list about 60/40

I also think Kuroda Boros has serious tools (chained to the rocks has to be played in SOME deck), and G/B Desecration Demon decks will be contenders in the format

I'm taking the boros burn deck to states. RDW and and UW are far too easy. I've set up my sideboard largely to deal with esper. Gruul I have a few cards for but I don't think I'm ever getting above 50/50 there. I just have to hope the control decks shove them out earlier.

i think GW also will be a big contender.
with Loxodon Smiter, Advent of the Wurm, Polukranos, Selesnya Charm, and maybe at the top is Elspeth.

i think GW also will be a big contender.
with Loxodon Smiter, Advent of the Wurm, Polukranos, Selesnya Charm, and maybe at the top is Elspeth.

The deck loses pretty hard to Supreme Verdict and doesn't actually have the ability to race aggressive decks, so I wouldn't count on it too much. We talked about this last night on the stream, and came to the conclusion that by the time Loxodon Smiter comes down, it's already too late. Firefist Striker just kind of spits in Smiters' face.

I'm running out the Mono G list you posted (with the hydras over pit fights) and I'm actually beating U/W control its crazy.

Humm, sorry. Still, do you feel that your deck has the right tools to beat it or you're confident enough in 'your' Magic that you just win those games. And what's the actual, worst matchup? UB? I mean, theoretically they could trade counterspells/removal with your beefy guys while leaving you dorks and then just take the game. I'm mostly talking about theoretical standpoint, trying to not take the quality of player into account.

I also think Kuroda Boros has serious tools (chained to the rocks has to be played in SOME deck), and G/B Desecration Demon decks will be contenders in the format

Screw Demon, there's Reaper of the Wild 10/10 would play again. Still, I don't really see enough of support cast for this deck to happen.
nI tried to brew GB Midrange with some minor reanimation package. I'm not talking about stuff like junk reanimator, more like 5C Goodstuff with Unburial Rites to return Thragtusks. Deck has some powerfull synergies (hey, you want to kill my creature? I'll sac it to bring it back together with a friend and I'll Scry because I'm a little whore) but support sucks. It's not defending well from Aggro, it can get blown into oblivion by control decks.

Kuroda Boros has some control matchup issues. But I still believe in this deck as there are certain places (Modo, low-developed locals) where people will just stick to RDW as it's cheap and provides some good results. And I don't believe that any deck could ever dream about having better matchup than Kuroda vs RDW. You stab them into heart and then poop into wound.

I think the lolhammer, Hammer of Purphoros, should be added to the key RDW cards. A resolved lolhammer basically makes control fold. It generates waaay too much VCA for most control decks to handle. In UWx control, [card]Elspeth, Sun's Champion[/card] is the only answer and that's only if they can get it in time. It also makes Anger of the Gods and Supreme Verdict moot because you can just throw mountains at them EoT. GBx Control/Midrange can deal with it though through Abrupt Decay, Putrefy, and Golgari Charm.

Definitely agree that RDW has problems with Green beats decks.

Deathrite shaman and thought seize are played in modern, I don't see why they aren't good enough here. Reaper is pretty solid, I think desecration demon is just a lot scarier to face for most decks at the moment.

Against Control MU you just have to go super grindy, primeval bounty, vraska, DRS+Thoughtseize+Duress style. Its the worse MU but I think theres good support tools. Scavenging ooze is still an awesome card when built around and putrefy+doom blade is solid support for him.

Rock type decks crush aggro too so if Mono Red is the king for awhile its definitely a deck that can go all the way with a good pilot

Deathrite shaman and thought seize are played in modern, I don't see why they aren't good enough here. Reaper is pretty solid, I think desecration demon is just a lot scarier to face for most decks at the moment.

Against Control MU you just have to go super grindy, primeval bounty, vraska, DRS+Thoughtseize+Duress style. Its the worse MU but I think theres good support tools. Scavenging ooze is still an awesome card when built around and putrefy+doom blade is solid support for him.

Rock type decks crush aggro too so if Mono Red is the king for awhile its definitely a deck that can go all the way with a good pilot

I see Thoughtseize seeing more play depending on how much control/midrange is in the meta. In modern with such a wide field it hits
more things. In standard at the moment not so much. Deathrite is a house but I assume he is not seeing major Standard play due to lack of fetches which allows him to be used at his full potential as a utility creature. Also with Snapcaster out of the format not much you need to exile outof the graveyard besides Chandra's Phoenix.

I think UB will start to get some action when people will figure out they need to play Dimir Charm due to Cackler/Shred-Freak.

dimir charm is legit. it has this secret mode that is counter scry holy shit!

dimir charm is legit. it has this secret mode that is counter scry holy shit!

At a Modern fnm played an opponent isocron scepter witH dimir charm to pretty much fateseal every turn.

thats.....hilariously awesome

Just got back from states texas and GWx performed very well. They incorporated more 1 drops which made verdict not so good I bet. And they had the lifegain that was shutting out red. Curious to see how other reports go.

Top 8 was one uw control, no esper (not surprised), dega control, 2 gw, 2 gruul midrange, 1 rdw, 1 ww