Dies to Removal

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see
someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the
doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to begin with.

I think you were the last. I also now think you've been right on the money with your TubeHunter/Iso scumteam.

You're right that scum generally wouldn't fake claim now. There's also no reason for town PR's to be hiding anymore. We need to lynch correctly today and need as much information as possible. Checkbox is town, for sure, but read my big post to see why Iso's not yet cleared. He's the only one who would fake claim in a game like this.

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see
someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the
doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to begin with.

I think you were the last. I also now think you've been right on the money with your TubeHunter/Iso scumteam.

You're right that scum generally wouldn't fake claim now. There's also no reason for town PR's to be hiding anymore. We need to lynch correctly today and need as much information as possible. Checkbox is town, for sure, but read my big post to see why Iso's not yet cleared. He's the only one who would fake claim in a game like this.

you're right, I was so focused on us being in game A that I failed to notice that game 1 is still a possibility. this is a very tough choice...I think the best bet would be to lynch tubehunter and hope he is a roleblocker so that we can be sure of which set-up we're in. the only thing that disturbs me is the chance that the scum team is iso/stardust and the wool is being pulled over all our eyes but this is a game and someone has to win. learning experiences etc...

so i'm being lead to a cliff by stardust. will he push me off? will we be pushed off together? will we throw the scum over the side and return to town victorious?

imopen, he's already been lynched.

Thoughts on who I should jail tonight? Considering I'm probably the NK target

Hrm. Unless Iso's telling the truth and they targeted him. Ah, but then he would have died Night 2! Yes!

imopen, he's already been lynched.

Thoughts on who I should jail tonight? Considering I'm probably the NK target

Ooh, clever, Stardust. Setting up the Iso lynch for when we nail your buddy. But my Bulletproof breadcrumbs date back to Day 1, so unless I was planning on falseclaiming Bulletproof from the start, your theory holds no weight.

rcwraspy is fine. If TubeHunter flips roleblocker, you'll almost certainly live and we lynch rcw for the win. If TubeHunter flips Goon, I think you'll still die, but that'll at least narrow it down to Iso and me. He's been scummy enough this game that I feel confident I can win that fight.

Considering we started out with two mislynches, I'm actually feeling alright about this game all of a sudden. TubeHunter flipping town doesn't scare me in the least. Notice how following his lynch he's been implying he's town, but never outright saying it? We got 'em!

Ooh, clever, Stardust. Setting up the Iso lynch for when we nail your buddy. But my Bulletproof breadcrumbs date back to Day 1, so unless I was planning on falseclaiming Bulletproof from the start, your theory holds no weight.

Your breadcrumbing Day 2 was like taking loaves to the face in comparison to what you said Day 1. I caught the one post, but same as your initial gambit in
this game, it's one of those things that you can just laugh off easily if things don't go your way. I know you, Iso.

Let's just say that as this game progresses, you'll see that you can gain more information during the Day than the Night.

(provided Suga isn't the Roleblocker, and we do, in fact, have a Cop in this setup, which I have my doubts about)...Sure, a Jailer might be able to block the mafia kill, but we won't know if that's because there's a Bulletproof in the setup...So sure, there are pieces of information that we can pick up from the Night actions, but short of an incriminating Cop
result, behavioral analysis is our strongest weapon right now.

Hmm.

In the event that we have a Cop or a Tracker, and they get a guilty/action result over Night, they should immediately come forward.

:nod:

Could narrow down choices for a potential Tracker/Jailkeeper/Cop.[/quote:
av8x6tsh]

Note the lack of a mention of a Bulletproof.

And I doubt I'll be getting Copped toNight.

Self-explanatory.

(And if I get Tracked, I'm going to be peeved.)

Suggesting I believe there's a Tracker.

Day 2:

No, we have a Jailer. :nod:

oh look

And no, I'm not fishing. Are you?

oh look

Well I just got a PM back from Kaze that disappointed me, so we might not have a Jailer after all.

Again on the Tracker shpiel, also confirming that Kaze wouldn't tell me if my Bulletproof was expended or not

and short of some sort of confirmation through either a Tracker or a Jailer, I don't think we'll be able to PoE our options very well.

oh look

Need I go on?