Dies to Removal

You need to remember that each faction has a different number of cards and each card can only be used once.

And you need to remember that has no bearing on the cards you were dealt. Each card is its own instance and we don't know the order the cards were dealt to do the without replacement odds.

What are the odds that your third card is Town? Exactly the same odds that mine is and that Ham's is and that Stardust's is. And they're the same as the odds that your first and second cards were Town.

Town cards account for 68 of the 118 total. Each individual person here had a 7.3% chance of being dealt three non-town cards. That's only true if we don't know any of the three cards. You had two non-town cards already. The odds that your third card is non-town is something around 40% because it's independent of the other three.

So you agree it's more likely the third is town. (60% in fact) Cool. Thanks.

So weigh my 60% against imopen2's immense scuminess and az's blatant buddying of him and we should be lynching Imopen today.

I want to talk about the only things we can infer from these discarded cards. We know that the cards that were discarded were not useful to the player that discarded them, or at the very least, less useful than something else.

1. Dechs Kaison - Discarded: Mafia Roleblocker
2. Lord_Mcdonalds - Discarded: Alien Mass Redirector
3. Stardust - Discarded: Werewolf vanilla
4. Witchhunt - Discarded: Town Conspiracy Theorist
5. Hamfactorial - Discarded: Town Vanilla
6. rcwraspy - Discarded: Mafia Reflexive Doctor
7. Jamie - Discarded: Town Vanilla
8. Rednihilist - Discarded: Town Conspiracy Theorist
9. imopen2 - Discarded: Alien 1-Shot Unlynchable

I already mentioned mine earlier. I discarded a Roleblocker. If I were going to choose to be scum, roleblocker would be a fantastic ability for the scum team to have.
LMD's Mass Redirector. That's a tough one. It's a one shot ability and it seems very powerful, but hardly predictable. I think he just wasn't sure how to use it or didn't like only being able to use it once. Can't infer anything from this.
Vanillas are useless and Conspiracy Theorists are almost useless. Nothing to infer.
RCW's Reflexive Doctor is a mediocre ability for the town to have and a bad one for scum to have. I could see many other roles being better than this regardless of his faction.
Imopen's Unlynchable has me leaning back to thinking he's town. If he were scum, being unlynchable once is a great thing to be. It's like a more powerful version of Jamie's Govern ability, because the Day ends essentially as a no-lynch. Imopen is either town or scum with one kickass ability.

You need to remember that each faction has a different number of cards and each card can only be used once.

And you need to remember that has no bearing on the cards you were dealt. Each card is its own instance and we don't know the order the cards were dealt to do the without replacement odds.

What are the odds that your third card is Town? Exactly the same odds that mine is and that Ham's is and that Stardust's is. And they're the same as the odds that your first and second cards were Town.

Town cards account for 68 of the 118 total. Each individual person here had a 7.3% chance of being dealt three non-town cards. That's only true if we don't know any of the three cards. You had two non-town cards already. The odds that your third card is non-town is something around 40% because it's independent of the other three.

So you agree it's more likely the third is town. (60% in fact) Cool. Thanks.

Yes, but it's not more likely to be town than anyone else's.

Dechs is town. Good shit

You need to remember that each faction has a different number of cards and each card can only be used once.

And you need to remember that has no bearing on the cards you were dealt. Each card is its own instance and we don't know the order the cards were dealt to do the without replacement odds.

What are the odds that your third card is Town? Exactly the same odds that mine is and that Ham's is and that Stardust's is. And they're the same as the odds that your first and second cards were Town.

Town cards account for 68 of the 118 total. Each individual person here had a 7.3% chance of being dealt three non-town cards. That's only true if we don't know any of the three cards. You had two non-town cards already. The odds that your third card is non-town is something around 40% because it's independent of the other three.

So you agree it's more likely the third is town. (60% in fact) Cool. Thanks.

I'm good if we kill this guy now.

Yeah, that pissed me off. Misrepresenting stats is one thing. Twisting what I said into something else irks the hell out of me.

I wanted to cool off for a minute and make sure I didn't just vote out of spite.

Vote RCW

So weigh my 60% against imopen2's immense scuminess and az's blatant buddying of him and we should be lynching Imopen today.

"Immense" scumminess?

Blatant buddying...of Imopen?

This was Imopen's vote against you:

Cool.

I like your RCW case. I also don't buy it when he says he didn't understand the claim dechs was asking for since I already explained what dechs meant earlier.

Perhaps you can point out what was so immensely scum about this post for me. I must be missing it, somewhere.

I'm not sure how my coming to the same conclusion independently and with different reasons as soon as I joined the game constitutes buddying, either, but as they say in law school, if both the facts and the law aren't on your side, bang your fist loudly on the podium, amirite?

Unvote
Vote rcwraspy

You're not even trying to pass as town anymore, you're just asking the odds of you being dealt three town cards.
That makes no sense.

That's the mistake we made when we singled out the four guys that discarded Town cards. You really can't learn much from those choices. One dude could have been dealt three town cards and of course he'd have to discard one. Another guy could have been dealt three scum cards and for some reason, we were showing that less scrutiny.

Technically speaking when I started this mess (by being one of the guys that discarded a town card) I just wanted to force people into talking.
I knew that somebody having three town cards was actually likely, but if I remember correctly nobody used the argument 'till now.

I also agree with the fact that discarding a town card doesn't make you more likely to be scum than discarding something else, yet I felt like it was a good place to start.

---

I'm ill, so I'll probably won't be able to keep up with the thread the next few days, be patient with me

Wait so if a lyncher lynches the target, he wins and the game continues? How does that make sense? Is a lyncher a threat to the town?

Wait so if a lyncher lynches the target, he wins and the game continues? How does that make sense? Is a lyncher a threat to the town?

I was pretty sure it was treated like a survivor role in which the game still goes until one of the factions wins.

Rez, can you clarify what would happen if a lyncher wins?

Read it.

From MafiaWiki:

"In most games, if the Lyncher succeeds in fulfilling their Win Condition, they will leave the game and in the end be pronounced a joint winner with whichever faction wins the main game."

Is this most games?

Indeed it is!

I do want to point out Jamie didn't even really try to dispute my counter claim, which is probably a good thing because the Cop/Lover card was mine and I'd have fought him to the death for it. Nor did he try to point out he made a false claim and follow it up with an honest one, but even at this point I wouldn't believe the third card after that whole case. In my book he's anti town, not much to gain in pushing further on this since he can't be lynched, but that's my stance on him.

Stardust pointed out something that threw me off about choosing which Townie should absorb the supersaint, that's been talked up quite a bit so I'll move on to my 2 cents here.

I personally didn't read into Ham having an idea about my alignment at all from that post, I more noticed Raspy over here trying to push the same premise on Ham knows Stardust is town and making it Ham also knows WitchHunt is town. I'm getting the vibe of Raspy trying to stoke the flames of suspicion on Ham here.

If someone has a pattern of scuminess I'm not going to ignore it just because I'm also under a little pressure. It's the same slip twice. Normally that's pretty telling but Stardust is right that there was more context I wasn't considering.

I'm coming back to this, I really feel like that secondary read on Ham was a just a poor attempt to make it seem like Ham was following some kind of pattern. I didn't get the same vibe out of his post at all, even with it partially relating to me.

Hell, I'd think that the kind of conviction you seem to want me to have would actually be scummy. Scum are the only ones who know for a fact who else is scum and who isn't.

Az is right on this, you seem to be all over the place in your various claims, I can't tell which one you want us to take seriously. Then we went through the whole scenario with you trying to convince us you're more likely to be town because of false probabilities? This makes me want to vote you more than anything else, there's legitimately no reason you discarding the cards you did makes you more likely to be town. As previously stated that's not how probability works. I want to see where we're at right now though before I do anything further.

@Mod: Vote Count Please?

He's at L-1. It's Imopen, Az, Me, and Red voting him.

Sorry, I got the order wrong. Az was first, then Imopen, me, and Red.

Cool.

Vote rcwraspy.

I'll look into ham tomorrow before we lynch Jamie.

Intent to hammer. I will re-read raspy's posts and see if his lynch seems appropriate, then cast a vote.

It's early so I'll wait a bit to catch objections.

Pedit: nath'd by Stardust

If twigh light lasts long enough I'll show how obvious a scum team az and Imopen are. This is a horrible mislynch.

Pretty sure Stardust just won the game with whatever faction pulls it out.

I feel like wraith. My personality just doesn't mesh with being town and I get mislynched for it.

Pretty sure Stardust just won the game with whatever faction pulls it out.

That's only true if town's the faction, broski.

If you are town, I'll certainly read anything you give us on imopen, but I'm pretty sure he's town. Az just needs to be kept alive long enough to start slipping if he's scum.

Yeah, that pissed me off. Misrepresenting stats is one thing. Twisting what I said into something else irks the hell out of me.

I wanted to cool off for a minute and make sure I didn't just vote out of spite.

Vote RCW

I wasn't trying to misrepresent anything. I stopped with math when I didn't understand pre-calculus in high school. That was more than 15 years ago now. I legitimately thought that since Jamie, WitchHunt and I were the only ones who had more revealed/claimed pieces of cards than anybody else, and neither of mine were town, it should put a large question mark in Azrael's incredibly weak case on me, which I'll go into next.

This was Imopen's vote against you:

Cool.

I like your RCW case. I also don't buy it when he says he didn't understand the claim dechs was asking for since I already explained what dechs meant earlier.

Perhaps you can point out what was so immensely scum about this post for me. I must be missing it, somewhere.

I'm not sure how my coming to the same conclusion independently and with different reasons as soon as I joined the game constitutes buddying, either, but as they say in law school, if both the facts and the law aren't on your side, bang your fist loudly on the podium, amirite?

Right, because that's imopen's only post in the game. This is a terrible argument from you. I'll show your buddying in a subsequent post. It's incredibly obvious and I don't know why nobody else is talking about it.

PS - haven't heard that bit about banging your fist, but I'm not trying to be a litigator and I'm only in my second year.

Also, I've only read a single post this game, but Imopen is town.

Actually, nevermind.

Imopen is at L-2 at this point, I believe. You come in and immediately attempt to save your buddy after admitting you haven't even read the thread yet. Then you "take it back" so as not to appear that you're buddying.

Then you go into probably one of the worst cases I've ever seen in Mafia so far. It's based entirely on personality traits and characteristics that have nothing to do with factional alignment. And why choose me so quickly after you admitted you didn't even read the thread? Because I was on to your buddy, that's why. Azrael to the rescue, scum can't lose a member this early!

As a corollary not sure why Rcwaspy think it's a decent case.

I already answered this. Dechs had the most comment from which to gauge anything that early and Stardust did a decent job framing it.

Hmm, the doubt seems like a mannerism. He's alternating between taking decisive, original positions and describing his thought process, while also being unsure about certain things. +town

You say this of Dechs and give him +town credit but then vote me for exactly the same reasons.

Should have time for a proper response on Friday.

Heh. +Scum

In what universe? I'm in law school. I used to work a 9-5 where I sat in front of a computer for 8 hours a day. Now I'm only in front of a computer about an hour a week. Most of my posts are by phone. And fuck off, I even followed up exactly when I said I would. There is nothing whatsoever scummy about this.

So my fully discarded card you know about from rez.

I took the faction from one and ability from another.

The resulting faction discarded was werewolf.

The resulting ability discarded was vanilla.

Note the truncated style, here. Other players were a lot more open about the reasons that they picked what they picked. Here, it's nothing but bare bones.

What? Now the way someone physically posts things (in a way that promotes clarity, btw) is scummy? that's the worst reasoning I've ever heard. You should feel bad for saying this and everybody else should feel bad for not picking you apart for it.

rcwraspy
Here's my current T/S list. In order of Rez's post of players. Some I don't have much of a read on because of lack of content.

1. Dechs Kaison - null. I can see both town and scum motivation for his desire for everybody to claim and for his posts in Stardust's "cases" on him. I think I need to wait for D2 or a lot more D1 activity to tell here, especially after we get a flip on today's lynch, whoever that may be.

2. Lord_Mcdonalds - I want to say town because the few posts have been good, but that's just it - they've been few and far between and mostly at opportune scum times. Leaning town but watching.

3. Stardust - I have a gut feeling as to your real role, and it's not what you claimed. I'm not saying it, though, because that wouldn't be beneficial. You're pretty lucky you didn't get counter-claimed. I won't be lynching you unless my gut feeling is proven wrong, but I'll be wary of any wagons you're on.

4. Witchhunt - fine thinking of WH as town for now b/c of the counter-claim. But that's certainly not dispositive of scuminess.

5. Hamfactorial - sort of like LMD. Hard to say. However, in my few games with Ham he's typically been aloof in day 1.

6. rcwraspy - this guy's as town as they come.

7. Jamie - lets lynch this guy.

8. Rednihilist - in the same boat as LMD and Ham. A few good posts, but not much to go on.

9. imopen2 - this might come across as omgus, but I really do think his vote on me was very scummy. After Jamie this is my strongest scum read so far.

Reading this as a scum post. Too nervous, apologetic.

I'm a very conciliatory person in general. When there's a discrepancy that I deem is trivial and not worth standing up for, I generally take the blame for it so all parties can "save face" and move along. If this has leaked into my Mafia playing then that's something I need to fix. But in no world is not having strong reads on every player early in day 1 considered a scummy thing.

Nope, this will probably make me care less. You guys can never figure out when I'm town, and, once again, you're pushing for information that will only help the scum. Lynch me if you really think I've been more scummy than RCW, but the case against me is weak as fuck and you deserve to lose for following it.

Yup, town.

Wait, what? HELL NO. This isn't town whatsoever. This is 100% scum behavior. This is the most blatant example of buddying I've ever seen. Town try to give more information and help when they're under pressure. Scum want to give nothing away. What does imopen do here? Decides he doesn't want to give anything away, says he's going to "care less" about the game and gives up. This is bullshit and scummy and you know it. Saying otherwise makes you his scum buddy as clear as day.

Imopen = scum

Azrael = scum

Stardust = something he didn't claim, probably lyncher. beware the hammer.

Dechs and WitchHunt are the most likely townies. Just don't follow Dechs if he votes out of math anger lol

Btw I was planning to post that stuff on Imopen and az today anyway. If yall didn't have severe premature evoteulation you could have avoided a mislynch.

It's possible Dechs was the only town on my wagon.

Btw I was planning to post that stuff on Imopen and az today anyway. If yall didn't have severe premature evoteulation you could have avoided a mislynch.

I don't think that would have changed anything. You didn't prove that imopen and Azrael are scum. You just responded to the case on you. If you flip town, all that post will prove is that they were wrong. Where's the proof of scum mindset? Azrael calling someone else town isn't enough to prove their scum buddies.

I find it strange that you're so adamant that I'm a Lyncher. If you don't believe my claim, it seems the least probable thing for me to be, especially since after you're lynched it'll be proved that I'm not a Lyncher for you at least.

This game is nothing but confirmation bias. I forgot how angry it makes me.

You certainly have to watch out for confirmation bias, but that's not why you're being lynched. If you are town, I'm sorry for being wrong about you, but you're being lynched for what are legitimate scum tells. For what it's worth, if you are town, you've got a reasonably good shot at winning still. We've got Jamie already, I suspect that there are probably only 2 or 3 anti-town roles, and the info we've got from this Day 1 has been very good. Dechs is town. WitchHunt is town (depending on Jamie's flip, of course). There's enough solid data to make good calls on basically every other player. Even if this is a mislynch, I think we've got a very good shot of taking this game, especially if my preliminary read of town on Azrael is correct.

Did you guys already extract a claim from him at some point? I figured we had that step as a preliminary measure before we rush-lynched him.

For the record, if I say I'm ok if we kill someone now, I may or may not mean that literally. I change my mind too often once someone comes under pressure and potentially comes out with an entirely different set of reactions as a result.

That's my fault for saying it.

We did not. I opted to hammer based on the setup of this game. Whatever he claims, whatever ability he proves, that says nothing about his alignment.

What if he were a mason or innocent child, for instance?

We should always at least take the time to let people present their claims, and if they're signalling intent to make a full defense, hear them out.

Lol NOW toy day that.

Say* (stupid auto correct)