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Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:21 pm
by Helios
Good work, Purp! If you're feeling spicy, I've got a fun build of Legacy Burn you could take. The numbers need tuning but it is solid as fuck.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:40 pm
by montu
No one reads my SB plans
I spent about 45 minutes last night working through your SB plan, trying to make sure I understood everything. It's much appreciated!
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:43 pm
by montu
So just got back from SCG IQ where I took 1st place with Walter White! Thanks to everyone on these forums who made it possible. Ill post more in depth match notes tomorrow.
Congrats!
I'm particularly interested your decision to MB a SBD. Looking forward to more details!
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:52 pm
by Platypus
Congrats, Purp!
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:53 pm
by montu
If I can summarize (your excellent) probability analysis:
"Don't base your land count on a single SBD. Getting
to your SBD is the limiting factor (not playing it once you get it). Adding lands just weakens the rest of your play while doing (almost) nothing to improve the small-probability hopes of curving-out the SBD."
Is that about right?
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:11 pm
by poppa_f
A pyrored list very similar to the one published in channel fireball came 3rd in my local 2k standard tournament over the weekend:
http://www.manaleak.com/mtguk/2013/11/d ... eck-lists/
Interestingly he mainboards 4 Skullcrack, 4 Boros charm and 4 chained to the rocks, so very much set up to face control decks, monoblack and monoblue.
Guessing the sideboard plan for Aggro is to sideboard in 4 reckoner and 3 anger of the gods and go almost full control / burn against them.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:21 pm
by Purp
Well originally I showed up the event -1 SBD, -1 Mountain, +1 Chandra, +1 Muta. During my playtests the night before, I noticed I was never really drawing too little land.
I expected there to be a bigger showing of midrange decks like boros and g/x. I often found myself wishing I had one finisher, some way to go over the top. I think it is very important to win game 1 with this deck so I really wanted another way to pull out a win verse Boros/Gx in game 1. So I then decided to put one in the main (Before the event I walked around and noticed more midrange decks and GW than I did mono blue. So I put one in the SB). -1 YP$, +1 SBD. I did some golfdishing and didn't quite like the multiple chandra hands. -1 Chandra, +1 YP$. After more goldfishing I thought about my SB. Where I am bringing in Reckoners, Mogis, another SBD and Mortars I knew I was becoming top heavy, especially with multiple red. -1 Muta, +1 Mountain.
All
in all it paid off. I only played SBD two times yesterday, and it was postboard. Each time I played them, It was for lethal.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:42 pm
by F.I.A
@Purp, that list is pretty nuts btw. I just went 12-1 online with it, facing only against 3 non-competitive decks. SBD is some serious shit when you can also flood the field with YP. I was completely murdered by GR Ramp though
I have success including [card]Titan's Strength[/card] against them. Of course, I'm playing PyroRed, so I suppose you'll do fine with
Chained to the Rocks for Walter White.
Generally, against devotion deck, you want to keep their devotion as low as possible (Or, at the very least, keep them as low as 3). Keeping a hand of removals (And maybe a single YP$) is ideal on handling them. Blow up
any mana dorks that is not called
Sylvan Caryatid for the first few turns, and you should be able to generate a few tokens to swarm them with.
Anyway, current sideboard for PyroRed
[deck]2 Act of Treason
2 Hammer of Purphoros
2 Anger of the Gods
3 Skullcrack
2 Rod of Ruin
4 Mizzium Mortars[/deck]
After a few times against a nutdraw of a aggro, I took out
Flames of the Firebrand in favor for some mass removals. We're going to play control against them anyway, so might as well blow them harder. Also tech against opposing Phoenix (Just make sure yours are in hand or graveyard).
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:13 pm
by Guttler
[quote="[url=
viewtopic.php?p=144347#p144347:xvlllizd]montu » Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:53 am[/url:xvlllizd]":xvlllizd][quote="[url=
viewtopic.php?p=144228#p144228:xvlllizd]Guttler » Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:12 am[/url:xvlllizd]":xvlllizd]The correct land count, with a single [card:xvlllizd]Stormbreath Dragon[/card:xvlllizd] in the 75 is 22.[/quote:xvlllizd]
If I can summarize (your excellent) probability analysis:
"Don't base your land count on a single SBD. Getting [b:xvlllizd][i:xvlllizd][u:xvlllizd]to[/u:xvlllizd][/i:xvlllizd][/b:xvlllizd] your SBD is the limiting factor (not playing it once you get it). Adding lands just weakens the rest of your play while doing (almost) nothing to improve the small-probability hopes of curving-out the SBD."
Is that about right?[/quote:xvlllizd]
Couldn't of said it better
myself.
Granted there will be games where you'll get your 1 of SBD in your opening hand and then never see a 5th land. There will also be games where you have 13 lands, enough to play it and monstrous it in the same turn and not draw it, but these are niche cases that come up in an low percentage of games. The 23rd land isn't needed until you have two 5 drops in the deck, where it's addition can significantly boost your chances of seeing a SBD early and curving into it. (For example: Purps deck.)
The one thing that can't be judged by the percentages is that the 23rd land in MDU's list is [card:xvlllizd]Mutavault[/card:xvlllizd] #4, which does a lot of work in the control match up. Would it be better as the 4th Shock or 4th YP? The math says it would be, but there may be meta concerns that make the appeal of 4 Mutavaults much greater then an extra spell. If the 23rd land ends up being just another mountain, then the choice to cut it should be easy.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:49 pm
by Jack
Purp, could you explain some of your boarding decisions during the tournament? What was your reasoning for bringing in Skullcrack against GW? And why did you keep Chained in vs. Esper? Also, could you explain why you chose to cut Magma Jet rather than Shock against Jund? Since it was your friend, you probably know the match up very well, so I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:11 pm
by Aodh
That's not right, Guttler. The events are dependent which means the probability of both happening is NOT simply the product. Nonetheless, I agree that 22 supports 1 dragon.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:15 pm
by Purp
Purp, could you explain some of your boarding decisions during the tournament? What was your reasoning for bringing in Skullcrack against GW? And why did you keep Chained in vs. Esper? Also, could you explain why you chose to cut Magma Jet rather than Shock against Jund? Since it was your friend, you probably know the match up very well, so I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
Sorry about that, I meant that I took out 2 chained vs esper! (i just edited it)
I brought in Skullcrack vs GW because I know the 5 cards he was siding it...3 unflinching courage, and 2 trostani. I knew he had a pithing needle in his board, not sure if that was something he could bring in to stop Chandra because she wrecked him game 1. G2 I was just trying to play as
controlly as possible, I liked having skull crack for protection against a UC Smiter if I didnt draw a mortars fast enough. With phoenix being a chump blocker a lot of times, I liked Skullcrack as also another way to recur.
Against the jund list, I knew he had DRS and Ooze. Since I was siding out all my 1 drops and 2 YP$, unless I drew an ash zealot I was eitiher going to play a tap land or mutavault. I wanted a one mana answer. For example, in game 2, he went t1 land tap, i play land. t2 drs, i eot shock it. Same with ooze, its a cards I want to kill on the spot. My chances of having atleast one mana open in this matchup was higher than having two. Based off our playtesting, I knew burn was very vital, which meant being as efficient as possible before he could resolve, whip or bow. Hope it makes sense. I could of been wrong here, but it worked out anyway.
here was his jund list(ish)
[deck]3 Sylvan Caryatid
2 Scavenging Ooze
2 Rakdos's Return
4 Desecration Demon
2 Xenagos, the Reveler
2
Chandra, Pyromaster
2 Underworld Cerberus
1 Whip of Erebos
2 Dreadbore
2 Hero's Downfall
1 Ultimate Price
1 Underworld Connections
1 Primeval Bounty
2 Mizzium Mortars
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Putrefy
2 Deathrite Shaman
2 Reaper of the Wilds
1 Rakdos Guildgate
4 Stomping Ground
4 Blood Crypt
4 Overgrown Tomb
2 Temple of Abandon
5 Swamp
4 Forest
1 Mountain
SB: 1 Underworld Connections
SB: 1 Whip of Erebos
SB: 3 Doom Blade
SB: 1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
SB: 1 Ultimate Price
SB: 1 Polis Crusher
SB: 2 Golgari Charm
SB: 1 Bow of Nylea
SB: 3 Thoughtseize
SB: 1 Pithing Needle[/deck]
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:13 pm
by LewisCBR
I think this deck is only a benefit of the matchups you get and the amount of land screws they receive. I have play tested this pyro deck thing off and on for a while now and it gets destroyed by Mono B and Mono U, which are the two most prevalent decks out there.
There is no answer to Mono B's Nightveils/DD/Garys. They have too much toughness to burn them all and then still have time to pin prick them for 2 points of damage for the rest of the game. I feel happy when i take care of one DD, but if a second one comes down you are dead. Like I said, not to mention that Nightveil stonewalls everything in this deck. You simply cant double burn DD's all day long and expect to win. You're lucky to draw one Chains and those rare games you draw 2 or 3 chains you end up not having any white.
Mono U just laughs at your 2/2's.
I get the idea of this deck and it feels neat when it works out, but online, where all you
see is Mono B and Mono U, i dont know how youre supposed to make the games even close. In fact, when the deck does work out, looking back, i really think it was due to them getting screwed. I just dont see how you can run a deck with a bunch of 2/2's, not call it aggro, and then win in the long haul. I destroy this deck all the time when i see it online with my Red Devotion, too.
I'm not sure what it is 'supposed' to beat.
I cant believe Purp dodged all Mono B and Mono U, thats just insane good luck.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:22 pm
by Purp
4 lightning Strike, 4 chained, 2 mortars should be enough for nightveil spectre.
Young pyromancer tokens take care of DD easily. Skullcrack murders GARY.
Against Blue burning their early devotion usually shifts the game to your favor.
While I would say I am lucky to have dodged Mono U (I'd say the matchup is 40% for me), however the mono black is a bye. (easily %75 in my favor)
I think it's safe to say you are not playing the deck correctly, or you are making poor side boarding decisions.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:26 pm
by RaidaTheBlade
My troll senses are tingling here...
This deck has a great matchup vs mono-black, hell I'm running the crappier version and I've only ever dropped a game or 2 to them.
Mono-blue is more difficult, but the side-board makes it an even match most of the time.
Just take a look at MDU or Z's match reports from MTGO, they have had amazing success with the deck...
The biggest issue here is not only that you're misjudging the deck, the statistics and facts just show how good the deck is in the meta. Mono-u and mono-b included.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:43 pm
by LewisCBR
The biggest issue here is not only that you're misjudging the deck, the statistics and facts just show how good the deck is in the meta. Mono-u and mono-b included.
There are no statistics, nobody plays this deck.
It seems that every Mono B deck i play against curves out to where they can turn 2 use removal on your Ash Z or one CC guy, turn 3 nighttveil, turn 4 DD, turn 5 Gary. And guess what, youre totally F'ed at you look down at your hand of mutavault, cackler, another ash Z, a Magma Jet, and Phoenix. If the whip makes it way at some point, youre extra F'ed.
If you get a really REALLY good start and drop a bunch of 1's and 2's then maybe you can beat B before Gary lifesteals you for 4+ (really, 4 is all thats needed to slow
you down to a snails pace), but you keep prayign all game he doesnt have 1-2 more gary's.
I'd rather have a deck that has answers as opposed to hoping i never see a Gary, whip, or DD. Or Mono U.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:46 pm
by RaidaTheBlade
So, you already heard from Purp about yesterday's event, which he kicked butt at! I was there as well, though, and did okay myself.
I was running a mono-red version, cause I can't afford the mana-base, lol
[deck]
Creatures:
4 Rakdos Cackler
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
3 Firefist Striker
4 Chandra's Phoenix
Spells:
4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
3 Shock
2 Mizzium Mortars
Planeswalkers:
2 Chandra, Pyromaster
Land:
20 Mountain
2 Mutavault (Purp let me borrow a second! <3)
Sideboard:
4 Boros Reckoner
3 Skullcrack
2 Act of Treason
2 Mizzium Mortars
2 Flames of The Firebrand
2 Rod of Ruin
[/deck]
Round 1: VS James with G/W Aggro. This tends to be one of my worst matchups, yet the universe seems determined to force me to face it ;-;
- Game 1 and game 2 went pretty much the same, he curved out, I tried to burn away his stuff, and it wasn't enough.
n0-1 (0-2)
Round 2: VS Jonathan with Maze's End. Another annoying deck to play against e.e
- Game 1, I curved out fairly well, but I sandbagged a lot, cause I kept expecting a field wipe that never came. Turns out he didn't mainboard wipes e.e Eventually I just overwhelmed his fogs.
- Game 2, he sided in the life-gain gate card and some wipes, and managed ot hold me off long enough.
- Game 3, I curved out beautifully, t1 cackler, t2 BTE and FFS, t3 Phoenix, T4 attack and burn for lethal. He never managed to get a green source in time.
1-1 (2-1)
Round 3: VS Calvin with a weird Dega build. It was more control than midrange, but didn't do either really well.
- Game 1, I just vomited out guys, and kept recurring phoenix, so he never could stabilize.
- Game 2, I did the same thing, but cast AoT on his stormbreath for lethal.
2-1 (2-0)
Round 4: VS Stephen with a much better Dega build. It was more midrange-y.
- Game 1, I got land-screwed.
- Game 2, I got land-flooded.
Not much else to say,
lol.
2-2 (0-2)
Round 5: VS James with Mono-Black. The tourney decided I needed time to eat my dinner, and gave me a quick match.
- Game 1 and game 2 I just curved out and beat him into a fine paste
3-2 (2-0)
They posted standing going into round 6 (the final round) and I was 15th. I wasn't gonna make top 8, but I paid good money, so I was gonna get all 6 of my rounds!
Round 6: VS Jose with Boss-Sligh. I liked this guy, cause he used all mirage john avon lands, like me!
- Game 1 I just kept burning him out and yp$ tokens helped to trade well for me.
- Game 2, he managed to rush me really hard, but I stabilized on 2 life with2 boros reckoners and a chandra on field. After that, I just burned away anything he possibly got out, and beat him down. He was not happy.
4-2 (2-0)
So my final result was 12th place! It was my first tourney bigger then a game day, so I'll take it and be quite happy with it
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:02 pm
by zemanjaski
I think this deck is only a benefit of the matchups you get and the amount of land screws they receive. I have play tested this pyro deck thing off and on for a while now and it gets destroyed by Mono B and Mono U, which are the two most prevalent decks out there.
There is no answer to Mono B's Nightveils/DD/Garys. They have too much toughness to burn them all and then still have time to pin prick them for 2 points of damage for the rest of the game. I feel happy when i take care of one DD, but if a second one comes down you are dead. Like I said, not to mention that Nightveil stonewalls everything in this deck. You simply cant double burn DD's all day long and expect to win. You're lucky to draw one Chains and those rare games you draw 2 or 3
chains you end up not having any white.
Both Mono R and Boros have absurdly good matchups against Mono B. most of us are 70%+ in the matchup. Talking with pros, the opinion is that red variants wreck mono B, and this variants has more answers to the problem cards than devotion red.
Reading your notes it's very likely you're not getting enough out of your cards. Please provide some game logs and ill see if I can help. Be sure to watch MDU's videos on the matchup.
Mono U just laughs at your 2/2's.
I get the idea of this deck and it feels neat when it works out, but online, where all you see is Mono B and Mono U, i dont know how youre supposed to make the games even close. In fact, when the deck does work out, looking back, i really think it was due to them getting screwed. I just dont see how you can run a deck with a bunch of 2/2's, not call it aggro, and then win in the long haul. I destroy this deck all the time when i see it online with my Red Devotion,
too.
I'm not sure what it is 'supposed' to beat.
I cant believe Purp dodged all Mono B and Mono U, thats just insane good luck.
FYI you can't say you destroy it all the time, then in the next post say no one plays it. I'm aware if your post behaviour on mtgs, I have my eye on you.
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:04 pm
by Narcasus
Congratz to both raida and purp, still love this deck even though im having fun with the burn deck atm.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:31 am
by magicdownunder
Will be making more updates to the primer today, if you have anything you want added let me know.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:42 am
by magicdownunder
I think this deck is only a benefit of the matchups you get and the amount of land screws they receive. I have play tested this pyro deck thing off and on for a while now and it gets destroyed by Mono B and Mono U, which are the two most prevalent decks out there.
There is no answer to Mono B's Nightveils/DD/Garys. They have too much toughness to burn them all and then still have time to pin prick them for 2 points of damage for the rest of the game. I feel happy when i take care of one DD, but if a second one comes down you are dead. Like I said, not to mention that Nightveil stonewalls everything in this deck. You simply cant double burn DD's all day long and expect to win. You're lucky to draw one Chains and those rare games you draw 2 or 3 chains you
end up not having any white.
Mono U just laughs at your 2/2's.
I get the idea of this deck and it feels neat when it works out, but online, where all you see is Mono B and Mono U, i dont know how youre supposed to make the games even close. In fact, when the deck does work out, looking back, i really think it was due to them getting screwed. I just dont see how you can run a deck with a bunch of 2/2's, not call it aggro, and then win in the long haul. I destroy this deck all the time when i see it online with my Red Devotion, too.
I'm not sure what it is 'supposed' to beat.
I cant believe Purp dodged all Mono B and Mono U, thats just insane good luck.
MonoBlack is a good MU, in-fact that was the MU which convinced me to switch to the Pyro list in the first place.
Red Devotion has a better MU against MonoU so I'll give you that, but you pay for it at the cost of a worst Control game (any version), I personal have a very good record against devotion red but I don't
believe its a horrible deck imho devotion Red is a strong list suited for people who enjoy closing out games quickly (nothing is wrong with that) while Pyro red/redwhite is a deck which provides you with options assuming you know how to use them.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:57 am
by Tyrael
MDU, thanks to your advice I have decided to pick my Devo R deck up again, with some tweaks to make it a real killer vs. control
I have to defend the honor of the red mages somehow at my FNM cause I'm still the only one playing red
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:05 am
by montu
That's not right, Guttler. The events are dependent which means the probability of both happening is NOT simply the product. Nonetheless, I agree that 22 supports 1 dragon.
It's easier for me to run Monte Carlo simulations instead of trying to make sure I'm getting the hypergeometic distribution right.
Here are the results I got for different scenarios (500,000 test draws) -
What is the probability you'll get 1 SBD and at least 5 lands in the first 11 draws (i.e., first 5 turns on the play) with 1 SBD in MD?
22 lands - 5.3%
23 lands - 6.0%
24 lands - 6.9%
What is the probability you'll get at least 1 SBD and at least 5 lands in the first 11 draws with 2 SBDs in MD?
22 lands - 9.8%
23 lands - 11.3%
24 lands - 12.9%
My
approach is still not 100% correct, because it doesn't account for mulligans. (Maybe I'll correct that over the holidays.) BUT, if you want to curve out with a SBD, it's pretty clear that adding a 2nd in the MB is the way to go, having a much bigger impact than just adding lands. And that 24th land gives you a relatively big bump in probability.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:23 am
by F.I.A
There are no statistics, nobody plays this deck.
I think it's time for me to remove that bloated signature of mine then. Most must have thought that it's just a tally for some puny tourney practices, and therefore holds no weight to any discussions I have.
It seems that every Mono B deck i play against curves out to where they can turn 2 use removal on your Ash Z or one CC guy, turn 3 nighttveil, turn 4 DD, turn 5 Gary. And guess what, youre totally F'ed at you look down at your hand of mutavault, cackler, another ash Z, a Magma Jet, and Phoenix. If the whip makes it way at some point, youre extra F'ed.
- That line of Removal > Nightveil > DD > Gary is what you consider a nutdraw for MBC.
However, it's not like you cannot throw a wrench to that nutdraw with "1 cackler > 2 cacklers > Lightning Strike for Nightveil > Act of Treason on DD". I've been there a few times. And let's be honest, you don't want Magma Jet against MBC, so that could have been a Mortar.
If you get a really REALLY good start and drop a bunch of 1's and 2's then maybe you can beat B before Gary lifesteals you for 4+ (really, 4 is all thats needed to slow you down to a snails pace), but you keep prayign all game he doesnt have 1-2 more gary's.
The only time Gary will be gaining more than 4 life is when you're losing anyway. Usually, it nets them 2 life, and gets a Mortar on the next turn.
I'd rather have a deck that has answers as opposed to hoping i never see a Gary, whip, or DD. Or Mono U.
Gary - Mortar & Skullcrack
Whip - Skullcrack
DD - Mortar (Trade with a 2/*), tokens and Act of Treason
Mono U - Rod of
Ruin
Here's the thing. Every MBC out there wish they have more reliable answer to
Rakdos Cackler.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:12 am
by Sasky
Brought Zem's pyrored (exact list) to monday night magic last night and went 4-0!
Beat grixis control, mono black aggro, UG colossus, and getting a concession from my friend at the last round (though I am quite sure i would have beat his b/r aggro deck).
All in all the deck is pretty solid I must say, despite me not playing standard for a month or so.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:18 am
by RaidaTheBlade
I think it's time for me to remove that bloated signature of mine then. Most must have thought that it's just a tally for some puny tourney practices, and therefore holds no weight to any discussions I have.
Aww, please don't o.o I've actually been using those for figuring out what to practice against more o.o
(I would have said your name along with Z and MDU when I mentioned stats, but I couldn't remember your name, and was in a rush, sorry ;-;)
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:19 am
by Keftenk
This is just disgusting...
Why is this list having so much success when I couldn't produce such results with the Big Boros lists? It runs more dragons and honestly, that's what seems to be chomping on my opponents most of the time. Is it simply luck? The lists are practically identical (as Pedros pointed out) Or perhaps it's because my opponents are spending their removal on my YP instead of saving it for my dragon? I'm a little confused by my success over previous lists I've used from the PyroRed and Big Boros threads. Perhaps I'm just having really favored match ups on my end /shrug
[deck]
Creatures
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Rakdos Cackler
4 Ash Zealot
3 Young Pyromancer
4 Chandra's Phoenix
1 Pyrewild Shaman
1 Stormbreath Dragon
Lands
12 Mountain
4 Temple of Triumph
4 Sacred Foundry
3 Mutavault
Other Spells
3 Shock
1 Flames of the Firebrand
4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
2 Chained to the Rocks
Planeswalkers
2 Chandra, Pyromaster
Sideboard
4 Boros Reckoner
2 Chained to the Rocks
3 Skullcrack
1 Assemble the Legion
2 Boros Charm
2 Mizzium Mortars
1 Stormbreath Dragon
[/deck]
I think I'm going to take this to FNM this Friday, with some SB tweaks if the cards arrive or I can track them down. See if this is just luck or not...
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:32 am
by magicdownunder
That is a rather small pool, if let say I recorded all my game today and lose against monoblack 2-3 times would that mean the deck is bad vs monoblack? No, variance and skill level is a factor as well.
I personally don't like data which isn't collected from DEs or higher, but that is just me.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:40 am
by Purp
I would strongly recommend FoM over Boros Charm. They would of came in handy vs your GR Ramp and Jund losses.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:40 am
by Helios
MDU - Nice update, great start.
Keftenk - What MDU said. Also, for the love of everything please put that in a spoiler tag. Appreciate the numbers though, good work.
Lewis - you don't like the deck. Great. Be constructive instead of speculative or get the fuck out.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:58 am
by F.I.A
That is a rather small pool, if let say I recorded all my game today and lose against monoblack 2-3 times would that mean the deck is bad vs monoblack? No, variance and skill level is a factor as well.
I personally don't like data which isn't collected from DEs or higher, but that is just me.
I suppose that excludes 2-man and 8-man queues then? Yes, rogue decks happened more often in those, but games are still taken more seriously when there's prizes to be won. Still, if that's how it is, guess it's time for me to move on to other things.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:02 am
by magicdownunder
That is a rather small pool, if let say I recorded all my game today and lose against monoblack 2-3 times would that mean the deck is bad vs monoblack? No, variance and skill level is a factor as well.
I personally don't like data which isn't collected from DEs or higher, but that is just me.
I suppose that excludes 2-man and 8-man queues then? Yes, rogue decks happened more often in those, but games are still taken more seriously when there's prizes to be won. Still, if that's how it is, guess it's time for me to move on to other things.
8-mans are better now
that grinders are forced into them (QP and chances for poty, greatly improve the quality), but 2-man pre-DE were a horrible source of information.
re: Variance
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:32 am
by montu
You'd be amazed at how large confidence intervals are for discrete ratios.
For example, if you win 13 out of 20 games, you can only be about 80% sure you're parity (50/50) or above. Want to be 80+% confident you're a 60/40 winner? You need to win 22 out of 30 games.
Variance is HUGE.
I recommend this page for calculating your percentage confidence interval.
http://statpages.org/confint.html
Use the "Binomial Confidence Intervals" with your wins in the Numerator and Total Games in the denominator. (At the very bottom of the page, set the Confidence level to 80 and hit the compute button. You don't need 95% confidence!)
Let me know if you have any questions.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:38 am
by RaidaTheBlade
This is just disgusting...
Why is this list having so much success when I couldn't produce such results with the Big Boros lists? It runs more dragons and honestly, that's what seems to be chomping on my opponents most of the time. Is it simply luck? The lists are practically identical (as Pedros pointed out) Or perhaps it's because my opponents are spending their removal on my YP instead of saving it for my dragon? I'm a little confused by my success over previous lists I've used from the PyroRed and Big Boros threads. Perhaps I'm just having really favored match ups on my end /shrug
I've actually got some thoughts on this one, as it's something I've been considering for a while.
The way I see it, one of the biggest strengths of these
two decks, pyrored and walter white, are their flexibility. They can act as a normal rdw, a burn-control, a big red/boros, or a sledgehammer.
That makes for a wide range of good matchups, as unlike most jack-of-all-trades, they actually do all of these things amazingly well. You are able to change your lines of play rapidly during the game, not just during sideboarding. It provides massive massive choce in your play.
To me that's where the real strength of it comes in. You're not stuck in one style of play. You don't have to pray for an aggro-out. You don't have to hope they don't keep drawing threats. You can be proactive or reactive.
I think it's like we're the Muhammad Ali of mtg. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. We change strategies to be doing just what they don't want, right when they don't want it, and beat them.
I may be being overly romantic about it, but that's how I feel when I play it. And God help me, but I love that feeling
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:15 am
by magicdownunder
I complied all my explanations, sideboard plans and videos on the front page - if this is useful for you guys I'll keep updating it as I go.
If you like any further changes to the primer let me know.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:26 am
by Yarpus
After you have understood the power of Gruul Charm MDU, what'cha think about RG Pyro? Just for the SB card. You loose Chained to the Rocks, but gain Charm to fuck Mono Blue sideways.
And then you can also play SB Xenagos for Mono Black.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:05 am
by magicdownunder
After you have understood the power of Gruul Charm MDU, what'cha think about RG Pyro? Just for the SB card. You loose Chained to the Rocks, but gain Charm to fuck Mono Blue sideways.
And then you can also play SB Xenagos for Mono Black.
Need more testing and deeper pockets, I love how badly it crushes MonoU but I'm concerned about not only MonoBlack Devotion but Gx Devotion as well (though we can laugh at walls with all the pump effects).
Ya know what F**k it gonna test it again.
EDIT: Couldn't bear to part with my tix for the RG Walker @_@
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:29 am
by Yarpus
[deck]Creatures:
4 Rakdos Cackler
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Firefist Striker
3 Chandra's Phoenix
1 Pyrewild Shaman
Planeswalkers:
2 Chandra, Pyromaster
Spells:
4 Shock
4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
Lands:
4 Stomping Ground
4 Temple of Abandon
2 Mutavault
12 Mountain
Sideboard:
4 Mizzium Mortars
4 Flames of the Firebrand
2 Xenagos, the Reveler
2 Skullcrack
2 Gruul Charm
1 Clan Defiance[/deck]
Or something like that.
Need more testing and deeper pockets, I love how badly it crushes MonoU but I'm concerned about not only MonoBlack Devotion but Gx Devotion as well (though we can laugh at walls with all the pump effects).
Ya know what F**k it gonna test it again.
EDIT: Couldn't bear to part with my tix for the RG Walker @_@
He is not 'mandatory', I'd rather play him in SB. But after initial Cockatrice testing
damn this guy is good.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:46 pm
by Jack
Yarpus, while we have you here, what were the words on your old Sally sig (something about playing control, but dealing damage)? I suggested that MDU use them in the primer, but it seems you have taken them down.
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:47 pm
by Jack
And raida I agree, we are very close to being an aggro - control deck.