Dies to Removal

That was a little joke

Hey guys, this might be the newbie talking, but I think we're going about this the wrong way. We're trying to identify a single scum player to lynch. Wouldn't it be better to figure out who the scum team is?

Let's start digging through votes, cases and defenses and look for the two guys who are working in concert. For example, let's start with the assumption that Wraith is scum. Then analyze his stuff, look for who his scum buddy is. Who do his votes line up with most? Who does he seem to protect?

Without doing all the work on it yet and for simplicity's sake, let's say that points to me as his most likely scum buddy. Does Wraith/Dechs team make sense? If you can't believe that I'm scum and I'm Wraith's most likely buddy, then it's likely that
Wraith isn't scum. In that case, we look at someone else as the primary scum and start over. If it does make sense, we lynch Wraith today and me tomorrow.

This is a fine enough plan, but I've found that I get super tunnely when I do it. I tend to gravitate towards the explanation that makes me look the smartest, which usually is the most complicated one and often wrong.

If you can't believe that I'm scum and I'm Wraith's most likely buddy, then it's likely that Wraith isn't scum.

This sentence stuck out to me as problematic. In this example, you've jammed together three separate Boolean statements.

1. Wraith is scum
2. Dechs is Wraith's buddy
3. Dechs is not scum

These statements can all be evaluated on their own. 3 being true doesn't disprove 2, because you could still appear to coordinate with Wraith from my POV (votes, friendly discussion in thread, etc.) 2 being true or untrue has no bearing on 1, since you can appear to
coordinate with Wraith regardless of your individual alignment.

There's also the math to consider. With 8 players alive, 2 of which are scum, that gives sigma(x-1,1,8) = 28 discrete 2 player teams to analyze.

hi

first person to tell me who to vote and why gets my vote

Vote LMD

My case for you wasn't as strong as I remembered it, but here's the summary:

-Rez was my strongest town read (turned out to be correct)
-Rez made a case against you that I agreed with at the time. Keep in mind, it was the first day of my first game. I was highly impressionable.
-You upped your activity as soon as you started getting some votes, trying to deflect the wagon. I mean, it's possible that's just when you got more time to post, but I don't believe in coincidences.
-With no wagon on you day 2, you went right back to lurking.
-Now the bomb on you fails.

That is my case. I'm confident in my vote.

LMD has shown extreme self awareness and only posts when he has votes on his head. There was a bomb delivered to him, but he didn't die. The most reasonable explanation for this is protected Scum because no town doctor has claimed protecting him.

Why would the Town Doctor claim?

We have no one left to claim that, and someone did claim cloak, which does basically the same thing.

LMD has shown extreme self awareness and only posts when he has votes on his head. There was a bomb delivered to him, but he didn't die. The most reasonable explanation for this is protected Scum because no town doctor has claimed protecting him.

Again I was the counterwagon day 1, if I were scum, I would've been lynched day 1, end of story, I would not have been trying to get out of being lynched.

We have no one left to claim that, and someone did claim cloak, which does basically the same thing.

the fuck does that even mean

I have a role that allows me to, each night, make a player of my choice untargetable for that night.

-Going to catch up over the weekend.

I still maintain that the Mogadishu Jones slot shouldn't survive to endgame.

I maintain that you're retarded.

Moving on to shit people give a fuck about, why, Dechs, does that necessarily mean LMD is scum instead of just Unkillable/Untargetable?

Actually, let me check how many people are in this game

Yeah he's scum, kill it with fire

Vote LMD

(In fairness, I was going to vote him based on last page anyway, but I wanted to push for reactions from the rest of you since I don't plan on reading the game.)

-Going to catch up over the weekend.

I still maintain that the Mogadishu Jones slot shouldn't survive to endgame.

Yeah he's scum, kill it with fire

Vote LMD

(In fairness, I was going to vote him based on last page anyway, but I wanted to push for reactions from the rest of you since I don't plan on reading the game.)

Nice way to sub in.
Care to share some more thoughts?

On...what, exactly?

Well, I'm not going to ask you for a complete reread because you don't seem to plan doing so, yet I'd like to hear from you about what do you think has happened to ham's bomb.

Quick reference for everybody:

Cursed_Pride - Innocent child
Dechs Kaison (replacing DroppinSuga) - claimed "Writing Style specialist" / pretty much Vanilla Town.
hamfactorial - claimed 1 shot Vig, supposedly tried to bomb LMD tonight but failed.
Iso (replacing Mogadishu Jones replacing Captain Murphy) - Hi Iso tell us something about yourself
Jack - claimed "cloaker" here
Lord_Mcdonalds - counterwagon of the day
RedNihilist - Very Handsom Mail Tracker.
Wraith223 - lynch of the day

hi im iso

As for the Bomb, LMD is probably Untargetable or Bulletproof or something to that effect. Which I don't see being town in conjunction with Jack's claimed role, provided Jack is town.

Red, why should I believe you're a Mail Tracker with a Mail Tracker already flipped dead?

Actually, Jack's role seems more anti-town than whatever LMD might claim, so.

But that's just setup intuition.

Mail Watcher*, lol

That said, my role's pretty useless-seeming as it is now.

And that's all I have to say for the time being.

So, we'll die of boredom while waiting for C_P.
kk

LMD has shown extreme self awareness and only posts when he has votes on his head. There was a bomb delivered to him, but he didn't die. The most reasonable explanation for this is protected Scum because no town doctor has claimed protecting him.

Again I was the counterwagon day 1, if I were scum, I would've been lynched day 1, end of story, I would not have been trying to get out of being lynched.

First, at the time you started getting votes and defending yourself, you were not the counterwagon to scum. You were just the only wagon with three votes. There
were two votes on Red and two on rcw. Yes, at the end of the day there were two wagons, one with you on it and one that flipped scum after accumulating most of its votes in about an hour. That doesn't make you a counterwagon.

Second, even if you were the counterwagon to rcw, you still had reason to defend yourself and lynch him instead of you. He was the far less active player, so he wasn't contributing much to your team. If you believed he wasn't going to help as much as you were, you'd have bussed him to save your own ass without a second thought. Hell, it even lends credibility to your towny claim: "I was the counterwagon to scum. I must be town." Mighty convenient.

None of that takes into account the apparent bulletproof-ness of your role. I saw the powers that rcw flipped with. Bulletproof is far more powerful.

You had every reason to want to defend yourself when you started getting votes and when rcw became a viable counterwagon to you, of course you bussed him.

-I'll reread the current events sometime today.

Did one of the scum steal my mail last night? -We have two players claiming to have sent me mail, but I never got any, and I sent mail and it was apparently sent to InflatablePie.

Did one of the scum steal my mail last night? -We have two players claiming to have sent me mail, but I never got any, and I sent mail and it was apparently sent to InflatablePie.

Sounds like you were targeted by something. From what I'm gathering, here's a summary of what we do know:
-You didn't receive mail.
-Your mail didn't go where it was supposed to.
-My mail to Ham got bounced back to me (presumed because of Jack's ability).
-Red's mail to me got through to me.
-Ham got mod confirmation that his mail bomb did get sent.

-I'll reread the current events sometime today.

Did one of the scum steal my mail last night? -We have two players claiming to have sent me mail, but I never got any, and I sent mail and it was apparently sent to InflatablePie.

They probably just changed the targets. I did receive the mail Jack intended to send you, as previously stated.

Sounds like some kind of mail Redirector.

FWIW, anyone who wants to circumvent something like that toNight, let me know.

I maintain that you're retarded.

Moving on to shit people give a fuck about, why, Dechs, does that necessarily mean LMD is scum instead of just Unkillable/Untargetable?

This is how you play? Figures from Theros game. I can't stand you and will not have anything to do with you. I'm done. Please don't join any game I create either.

@Mod please replace me out as I don't want to say anything more to this character.

weeeeeeeee

Final notes in respect for other players,

@Red, my deepest apologies as I confused you for Rez. He claimed that he never played scum, but did so in Fire and Ice.

@C_P, please ignore anything Iso says as his personal attacks are who operates. You are not retarded, but central to town winning this game as you are confirmed town from the mod.

@DK, your comments on scum team seem viable only in a vacuum. There is a lot of detail to consider: posts between players, no posts between certain players, accusations or non between players, how the defenses differ when a player does defend different wagons, same goes for attacks, and how the player scum hunts. Math definitely can be applied here, but the data set would be difficult to apply as variables would subjective to your gut calls. Good attempt for a a beginner, but these variables should be assisting ground work for the theory of why someone is scum, not the
foundation for scum. Slips you find can affirm or deny the factors I laid out.

@Jack, I seriously think a scum global mail ability was used. It is the only means to get around your claimed ability used on Ham. Please keep that in mind.

@LMD, Iso is so bussing you. That just sucks. I think he did it to Ham in the Theros game as well, but it could have been a scum tactic to gain trust. I don't know for sure.

For those who think I am kidding about leaving this game cause of Iso; it's real. Already Pm'd Mod. What a waste of my time now. Maybe the player will get the message that nobody likes playing with an internet bully.

Edit......@C_P, please ignore anything Iso says as his personal attacks are how he operates.

Still getting use to my new Macbook air.

Wraith you need to chill the fuck out and stop taking things so personally.

For those who think I am kidding about leaving this game cause of Iso; it's real. Already Pm'd Mod.

And I replied saying that I'm not going to replace you. Man up.

-Turning this into a flame war will have an effect on how fun this game is, for all involved. Keep things civil.

I have a hard time believing Wraith could be scum after that threat to replace out. It read as genuine.

I got the same impression, CP.

Saw the PM from stardust and your responses. I can't name call folks online anymore since I am signing up for law enforcement. Have to keep professional or leave the scene as remaining in the location would only implicate me if it gets worse (not just this but elsewhere in life as well).

Stardust and you guys are right that I should man up. My apologies. I also forgot Stardust had the power of the Mod. Never been a Mod, thus it never crossed my mind. Moving on......

With Iso voting LMD, how does this change things with an LMD wagon?

Wraith you need to chill the fuck out and stop taking things so personally.

After Theros mafia, I am really jaded. I don't know how else to voice my opinion that certain players in that game were internet bullies. I learned from Void that name calling and being a poor player is the wrong thing to do (I started it and should not have).

LMD has shown extreme self awareness and only posts when he has votes on his head. There was a bomb delivered to him, but he didn't die. The most reasonable explanation for this is protected Scum because no town doctor has claimed protecting him.

Again I was the counterwagon day 1, if I were scum, I would've been lynched day 1, end of story, I would not have been trying to get out of being lynched.

nFirst, at the time you started getting votes and defending yourself, you were not the counterwagon to scum. You were just the only wagon with three votes. There were two votes on Red and two on rcw. Yes, at the end of the day there were two wagons, one with you on it and one that flipped scum after accumulating most of its votes in about an hour. That doesn't make you a counterwagon.

Second, even if you were the counterwagon to rcw, you still had reason to defend yourself and lynch him instead of you. He was the far less active player, so he wasn't contributing much to your team. If you believed he wasn't going to help as much as you were, you'd have bussed him to save your own ass without a second thought. Hell, it even lends credibility to your towny claim: "I was the counterwagon to scum. I must be town." Mighty convenient.

None of that takes into account the apparent bulletproof-ness of your role. I saw the powers that rcw flipped with. Bulletproof is far more powerful.

You had
every reason to want to defend yourself when you started getting votes and when rcw became a viable counterwagon to you, of course you bussed him.

- ...yes it does? Even supposing I wasn't, there wasn't a case on me beyond "zomg teh lurk", Rez had no way of actually showing that I was scum, and thought I was scum based on 3 posts (one of which was me trying to end rvs) and continued to push it when the jack wagon ended, I was an easy wagon and getting 5 votes quickly without a substantial case benefits scum far more than town.

- bussing implies I was actively voting and pushing his wagon, I was in no position to do anything other than leave my vote on Rez and defend myself, changing my vote would mean me getting lynched...likely

Supposing that I was getting bussed, why would I do that, that plays against my teams win condition were I to do so, if five people are voting me compared to the two on rcw, why would I bus my teammate and cause my third teammate to distrust me? It
benefits my team less, rcw busses me, he gets credibility for assisting in lynching scum, and will likely be left alone for the next day or so.

DAFUQ YOU GUYS DOIN'?