Running Tally: Gatecrash

[Thrillho]

Spoiler was just posted last night and I don't expect it to shake things up in the overall set value.

1. Aurelia's Fury -- $ 27.45
2. Obzedat, Ghost Council -- $20.95
3. Gideon, Champion of Justice -- $18.49
4. Domri Rade -- $16.77
5. Duskmantle Seer -- $15.00
6. Breeding Pool -- $12.63
7. Watery Grave -- $12.43
8. Godless Shrine -- $12.43
9. Stomping Ground -- $11.83
10. Sacred Foundry -- $11.70
11. Aurelia, the Warleader -- $11.47
12. Prime Speaker Zegana -- $11.14
13. Master Biomancer -- $9.47
14. Lazav, Dimir Mastermind -- $8.32
15. Thespian's Stage -- $5.43
16. Frontline Medic -- $5.43
17. Borborygmos Enraged -- $4.24
18. Deathpact Angel -- $4.70
19. Clan Defiance -- $4.39
20. Spark Trooper -- $3.88

When more than half of your top-value rares are Mythics or sure-thing Shocklands, that's a poor sign for the greater set's overall value. There are only 3 non-Shockland rares
currently valued at more than the value of a booster pack and while it's possible all of these high-selling Mythics are totally worth twice or more the value of a pack, history has shown us that these cards do not pan out or hold their value past the first few weeks following a set release.

Additionally, many of the commons/uncommons in the set are not nearly as impactful as RTR's. RTR had tens of commons and uncommons that broke out in Standard. While it's possible we just don't yet know what will break out yet, so far the only major shakers (in my opinion) are the Guildgates, Charms, and AEtherize.

As always, there may be a hidden gem among cards outside the top 20, including Crypt Geist, Call of the Clans, or Legion Loyalist, but so far the top 20 is super stacked against long-term value until actual shakers unveil themselves.

Any insight into potential sleepers is appreciated, since right now I see a mound of garbage if you pardon my editorializing for a second.

[Second Harkius]

Nothing too exciting at the common / uncommon level is right. I really expected a Trygon Predator (or even Spell Snare) reprint as a nod to other formats. But even without those, most of the cards are overcosted by 1.

As for the rares, jank jank jank. Spark Trooper might go up because it has that "FNM casual" appeal and people love Ball Lightning and Lightning Helix. Maybe to 7-8$.

Zegana is neat but I wish she costed 5. Lots of good four drops would put a 5 mana creature / draw spell in an excellent position for standard.

Duskmantle Seer is not Bob regardless of people wanting it to be. It could find a home in a niche deck since it's aggressively costed and has evasion but my expectations aren't high.

Deathpact Angel is terrible and wouldn't make the cut in most B/W EDH decks. A dollar mythic at most. Was an Angel of Despair reprint really too powerful?

Aurelia will hold value in the long term
since she'll be a popular EDH general and Boros EDH decks were pretty common last time I really got into that format.

Gideon looks terrible at first glance but Domri has potential. To what extent, I don't know.

Anyway these are just my ramblings about what I view as a terrible set, easily in the top 3 worst post-2000 sets.

[Thrillho]

PRESS-STOPPING HOT STOCK TIP: Pour all of your money into foil Gutter Skulks. It's a 2/2 for 1B -- which is really pushing the curve for a black two-drop. But reader beware, it's also a Zombie! This means it gets +1/+1 from all of the various Zombie lords, Deathtouch from Death Baron, and causes an opponent to lose 1 life when it dies with Diregraf Captain in play. But, in addition to being a Zombie, it's also a Rat: positive interaction with legendary good set Champions of Kamigawa and its Rat creatures. Marrow-Gnawer, anyone?

Foil Gutter Skulk is probably only second to foil Shocklands and Planeswalkers in terms of return on investment from Gatecrash.

[Thrillho]

Well, some gates have finally crashed on Gatecrash. Where are we now?
Aurelia's Fury -- 20
Aurelia -- 20
Domri Rade -- 20
Ghost Dads (Obzedat) -- 18
Prime Speaker Zarathustra -- 13
Gideon -- 13
Breeding Pool -- 11
Godless Shrine -- 10
Stomping Ground -- 10
Watery Grave -- 10
Sacred Foundry -- 12 (IDK)
Duskmantle Seer -- 10
Master Biomancer -- 10
Boros Reckoner -- 9
Lazav -- 7
Frontline Medic -- 4
Blind Obedience -- 4
Legion Loyalist -- 3-4

Prices at the top have cooled, some prices have risen on other cards, and more non-Shockland rares have gone up to or above the price of a pack. We will likely see what all this means after this weekend, where we'll likely see at least one Mythic over $10 (OR MAYBE EVEN BELOW WHAT A TWIST) place well at the SCG event and gain $infinity. Also, keep an eye on Boros Reckoner to see if he earns his price tag.

[Thrillho]

Quick update: SCG events housed few new rares, so only Medic and Blind obedience gained a dollar over the weekend. Mythics have largely deflated in price anywhere from $.50 to $1. Expect card values to drop a bit short of some wild heel-turn changes is what gets played this coming weekend as more product is opened in a relatively disappointing set. Expect card values to pick up once the format gets hashed out more and/or the coming pro tour happens. Also wait and see how Modern is impacted, if at all.

There was no Liliana showing at this weekend's SCG driving card prices over the top, is what I'm getting at, so don't expect anything too absurd to tip the scales on any investments you made into the set.

[Thrillho]

Boros Reckoner has jumped to $25 before this weekend's coming Pro Tour, so I imagine someone has found new technology with it (since its showing at the various SCG opens has been less than stellar).

If you have Reckoners, now may be the time to sell them since they're relatively new in the market and availability will only increase as time goes on.

[Thrillho]

Blind Obedience has been creeping up in value and is currently at $6.

[Tom Servo]

I'm sitting on a playset of Boros Reckoners and despite my best efforts, I can't make him viable in eternal formats. Has it already hit its ceiling, and is now the time to get rid of him? Or wait to see if he becomes bigger in standard?

[Yannaria]

should I dump my Zeganna's while they're at fifteen and sold out on scg?

[poggydude]

i feel you probably have a bit of time to enjoy its high. Id wait to see what scg restocks them at at the very least

[Yannaria]

scg restocked at fifteen
she's eight on CFB and you can get her for around 8 on TCGplayer. (lowest w/ playset)

time to dump them on people who use SCG prices I guess.

[Thrillho]

I'm sitting on a playset of Boros Reckoners and despite my best efforts, I can't make him viable in eternal formats. Has it already hit its ceiling, and is now the time to get rid of him? Or wait to see if he becomes bigger in standard?

They'll probably go up about a year from now if no reasonable non-damage removal for them is printed, but it's no snapcaster or similar eternal staple, so I couldn't see it going to and staying at its $25 high. I think there are worse things you can do than sell it for $16-18 now.