Eternal Huge Gainers/Losers general

[Thrillho]

Time Vault just get unbanned in Legacy and it's about to go in all the cool kids' decks?
Did they just ban Valakut all over again in Modern?
Did they print something that puts your Gilder Bairn combo at the absolute cutting edge of multiple formats top tiers?
Do you just expect that certain older cards are criminally undervalued in formats where your cards are good forever?
Post about it here!

This thread is for discussing directions and market speculations for card values with cards in eternal formats, including Legacy, Modern, and Vintage. Some good examples were my classic speculation on Vendilion Clique's price jump, movement on Time Spiral after it was unbanned, and the plummeting value of Jace, the Mind Sculptor after it was confined to Legacy play (which has since reversed itself, but these are just older examples).

If you think you have some hot tips about card prices and
where they're going, post them here!

[Col. Khaddafi]

Yo Thrillho, I am attending Grand Prix Lisbon, what should I look at buying from dealers? I'm thinking Scars Duals because they are criminally undervalued. Something else I should be on the lookout given that there will likely be a multitude of cards for sale?

[Thrillho]

I have a sinking suspicion that it'll be either a while or massive upsurge in Modern before Scars lands make a comeback, but don't let either of those things stop you since just look at Filter Lands from Lorwyn block, since they're currently seeing more play than Shocks in your average deck.

I don't know what your portfolio of cards looks like or what you're looking for (short versus long term gains?), but I just updated the RTR thread to reflect current value trends for Standard cards (protip: You've missed the boat on Innistrad Block).

Don't buy anything printed between 8th Edition and Zendikar.

Scars lands, Man-duals, aforementioned RTR sleepers, and smaller things like Splinter Twin, Birthing Pod, Melira, Scars Swords, and Batterskull are safe investments.

Note that this is probably not the direction I'm looking to take this thread in (mostly I want to use this as a groupon or similar coupon/deal storing
hub for MTG), but no harm in answering your question.

[Col. Khaddafi]

I don't know what your portfolio of cards looks like or what you're looking for (short versus long term gains?), but I just updated the RTR thread to reflect current value trends for Standard cards (protip: You've missed the boat on Innistrad Block).

I'm more interested in long term gains, but mostly not missing on something whose price might become retarded if I fail to spend a few bucks now.

Note that this is probably not the direction I'm looking to take this thread in (mostly I want to use this as a groupon or similar coupon/deal storing hub for MTG), but no harm in
answering your question.

Yes I know its a tad off-topic, but I didn't want to make another thread. We can split it though and rename it to market advice or something ala A vs. B?

[Thrillho]

my thoughts are we have a vague "eternal/standard/casual fluctuators" threads like I started back on MSC and also have AvB global thread.

[Col. Khaddafi]

Well we don't so I might just start the A vs. B. thread and ship these posts, brb.

Edit: Done, feel free to adapt the title if you wish.

[Thrillho]

None of these posts are AvB, lol. This would fall under Eternal Huge Gainers, but there's no introductory OP. Fail whale.

[Col. Khaddafi]

Jeez, you are hard to please.

Gonna have to hack the mysql database then brb.

Happy now?

[Thrillho]

gobbless

[Yannaria]

I'm actively picking up all the Scars Duals I can. They're low enough right now and they are playable in Modern. They're pretty mediocre everywhere else, but with Modern being announced as an FNM format and these not being featured in MM, they probably will rise eventually.

also like Thrillho said the things worth getting from scars are: Swords, B. Skull, Melira, and Pod.
Twin is pretty cheap, I'd pickup at least a playset in case the deck becomes popular/good again.

[Thrillho]

I would add Wurmcoil Engine to the list of cards you should probably buy. It's value hasn't deflated much BUT it and Batterskull are major Answer cards in Modern, and Batterskull has huge popularity in Legacy.

As I noted in chat, if you don't get Scars lands now, you'll likely regret it in not very much time. Modern as an FNM format, Scars block not being included in Modern Masters, and the omnipresence of Scars lands in Modern make them prime candidates for value hikes.

I would also keep my eye on Raging Ravine, Creeping Tar Pit, and Celestial Colonnade. They're not nearly as omnipresent as Scars lands, but their values are not very large investments and it's hard not to break even on having extra copies.

I have my suspicions that the blue-based Scars lands may see the largest gains if Modern takes off, followed by or parallel to Blackcleave Cliffs. I would also not discount Razorverge Thicket because of the GW
Maverick analog, Junk, and Melira-Pod decks that all made relatively decent showings at the last modern GP (and keep popping up on MODO). Copperline Gorge seems like the land least likely to jump, but Gruul is in Gatecrash, so maybe we'll see some power-level pushing.

For reference:
Seachrome Coast: Standard high around $20, currently $3.50-$4
Darkslick Shores: Standard high around $20, currently $2.00-$3
Blackcleave Cliffs: Standard high around $11, currently $4.00-$5
Copperline Gorge: Standard high around $7-8(?), currently $2-$2.50
Razorverge Thicket: Standard high around $12-15(?), currently $1.5-$2

[Thrillho]

I spent the holiday picking up Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod. Each card is doing very well on MODO and neither card is due for reprint in Modern Masters. Splinter Twin was on sale for $2 on SCG for their holiday sale, while Birthing Pod is on TCGPlayer for around $2.50. I would aim for these prices if you intend to stock up or do not already have these cards.

[poggydude]

so this isnt really soeculation, this is more of a notice, daybreak coronet's price went full retard, so scour your dollar rare box for them. I dont want to see any of you guys getting ripped

[Yannaria]

lol what is making that card so good?
I have one for Zur.edh.dec

[Thrillho]

lol what is making that card so good?
I have one for Zur.edh.dec

There's a Modern deck of 1cc Hexproof creatures (Slippery Boggle and a 1/1 elf from M12), Kor Spiritdancer, some 1cc Totem Armor auras, Rancor, and it. It's done well in a number of DEs and some PTQs and was hyped by PVDDR on Twitter.

[Yannaria]

they're going anywhere between 15-25 on ebay. Time to drop it I guess.

[Thrillho]

I can't imagine that deck is going to stay good in a format with an Infect deck that requires far fewer cards to go all-in and claim victory. If you're not dumping your copies, it is probably a mistake.

That said, I need to head home and scour my bulk boxes for them.

[Checkbox]

I hate myself. I traded away a foil and a non-foil one within the last 6 months because they were worth NOTHING.

[Thrillho]

It's not something I'd be too concerned with; it's just another in a line of fleeting and explosive value cards that will very likely die down pretty much as quickly as they blow up (latest online PTQ had it place outside of top 16).

[Checkbox]

I agree. Also, the fact that Starcity isn't running Legacy every weekend in 2013 might be something... I hear they are out of NM blue duals as well, but am too lazy to check.

[Thrillho]

They have very low numbers of Tundra and Volcanic Island available, but reasonable amounts of Tropical Island and USeas (online; IDK what their on-site stock looks like or if they have a vault of event-floor stock versus online).

I said this about a half year ago, but Legacy, I feel, has hit a critical mass in players; it may not entirely be card availability, but the number of people who want to buy into the format may have peaked out. SCG Legacy events don't seem as well-populated as they used to be. IIRC, their numbers usually wind up around a good to average PTQ (100-200 people, usually toward the lower half of that range) as of late. I'm not saying Legacy is dead, but I am saying that maximizing your dollar for Legacy cards may not be the worst idea, especially with all of the tournament support Wizards is giving to Modern going forward.

[Thrillho]

Spellskite just shot up to $12. Does anyone have any details on why this is?

[Yannaria]

. It's a colorless answer to a lot of modern decks that isn't being reprinted in MM and was in NPH which iirc wasn't opened that much.

wasn't it also like a couple bucks before this? probably was the newest speculation target among people who speculate on modern

[Stardust]

Yeah, primarily it's an answer to that Modern Boggle deck is what I've heard. Good sideboard against lots of other decks too.

[Col. Khaddafi]

There's move with Legends expansions rares again.

Now its up to Chains of Mephistopheles to creep to 100$ on SCG and around 65€ on MKM. Apparently it featured in some obscure Top 8 somewhere, but these days its all it takes for the hype to take off for these kind of cards (ala The Abyss).

Nether Void is also slowly climbing in a "just incase" trend since their black rare buddies have been climbing up.

[Yannaria]

Shallow Grave is jumping and selling everywhere.
It may be time to pick up a playset + of anything even fringe playable on the reserve list.

[Col. Khaddafi]

yeah saw the posts at MTGS. That speculation target doesn't have a leg to stand.

I mean, you could search for fringe older rares and hoard them, but you'll spend a lot of cash to have a lot of cards clogging your space with just one card here and there jumping up. Plus, since rarity colors are a thing only beginning exodus, they're a pain to track.

Not worth the hassle for a few bucks potential gain IMO

[jonnyjonski]

yeah saw the posts at MTGS. That speculation target doesn't have a leg to stand.

I mean, you could search for fringe older rares and hoard them, but you'll spend a lot of cash to have a lot of cards clogging your space with just one card here and there jumping up. Plus, since rarity colors are a thing only beginning exodus, they're a pain to track.

Not worth the hassle for a few bucks potential gain IMO

You've played for long enough to remember what's rare and what isn't. Some things I still have to look up to be sure, but for the most part it's pretty easy.

[Captain Murphy]

Buy goyf's, I hear they go for good money

[Captain Murphy]

Although, modern masters...

[Col. Khaddafi]

mythic, won't change squat.

Speaking of modern masters I was speaking with the owner of my LGS, he told me these will have limited supply so he anticipates there won't even be anything left to draft once he honors the box requests from his customers. He also told me each booster box will have 24packs instead of 36.

[Checkbox]

yes, the booster number is something we've known

[Captain Murphy]

I want to buy a couple of boxes and save it for a draft long into the future

[Thrillho]

The big issue with Modern Masters is we don't have any scope of what "limited printing" means, since everyone who claims prices will drop gets shot at with "But it's a limited printing," but the express purpose of this set is to make Modern more affordable and accessible to new players to make it a viable eternal format for tournament play.

Making Goyf Mythic will probably help prop up the value of old goyf, but having a guaranteed foil in every pack coupled with a normal printing is going to piss all over the new printing's value.

It also hurts that we don't really have any spoilers at this point aside from Storm, Faeries, Goyf, and what is most likely City of Brass.

[Col. Khaddafi]

FWIW the owner of my LGS at Devir Lisbon told me he called the resellers for the Iberian peninsula, and that they couldn't give him any prospective number on boxes allocation. He told me that based on past expriences, this means a rather limited supply. Again, what he told me from his understanding of limited supply was that there will be enough boxes for the regular customers at his LGS and that's about it. He doubted he could even set up some drafts at the store and seemed way disappointed over this.

But yeah, there's a tight lid on spoilers regarding this set.

[Yannaria]

Just asking around at local stores, I've been told the same things that N_S has. After the guys honor the box preorders (Which are expensive, pretty much MSRP) they'll be lucky to do 1 or 2 drafts. And those drafts will be around 30 dollars per person.

[jonnyjonski]

Just picked 3 Shallow Grave at $3 ea and 3 Marrow-Gnawer at $4 ea yesterday. Topped that off with 3 Lava Spike at $.50 ea and 2 packs of Gatecrash that packed a Watery Grave and a Domri.

Not a bad trip to the LGS.

Shallow Grave is pushing $20 ea on TCGPlayer and Marrow-Gnawer has reached $17.

[Checkbox]

http://sales.starcitygames.com/search.p ... D=1&auto=Y

[jonnyjonski]

http://sales.starcitygames.com/search.p ... D=1&auto=Y

TURD!! SOLD OUT!! They keep that price up there until they reprice or restock to justify the lower BUY price they currently have!

http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/magic_sin ... 20Kamigawa

http://www.trollandtoad.com/products/se ... mode=basic

Do your homework and stop relying on JUST SCG for your prices. They lie on their sold out shit for a reason.

[jonnyjonski]

http://sales.starcitygames.com/search.p ... D=1&auto=Y

TURD!! SOLD OUT!! They keep that price up there until they reprice or restock to justify the lower BUY price they currently have!

http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/magic_sin ... 20Kamigawa

http://www.trollandtoad.com/products/se ... mode=basic

Do your homework and stop relying on JUST SCG for your prices. They lie on their sold out shit for a reason.

Shit....they are buying them for $8.70 on T&T.