HOT or NOT: Magic Origins

[Thrillho]

This set is ok, I guess.
Here's my list of cards that are under/overpriced. This is coming in late, so the "hot" list may be a bit borked (IE Jace).

Anyway.

NOT: Nissa, Vastwood Seer (TCG Low: 24.58)
Nissa is awesome and my contender for "most obvious inclusion in Standard not costing red mana." But $25 for a Civic Wayfinder that morphs late game into a Planeswalker is not the price you can expect to see this card settle at. Planeswalkers on the whole trend downward from their release price. That this card can easily drop into many Standard decks is a point in the holding value, so any copies you open up aren't going to deflate right away... I just would not hold these long term and expect price creep... it's not like she's going to crush Modern or Legacy like Ugin.

NOT: Liliana, Heretical Healer (TCG Low: 20.49)
This is more speculation based on LSV's lukewarm response to this (and the infrequency of minus-ing Ashiok), I can't imagine that over $20 is the right price for this card. The Ultimate is sweet, but we're not breaking into Modern/Legacy with Liliana of the Veil around, and our likelihood of opening up Standard isn't impossible, but it's suspect (at worst). Plus, you need an involved (if not easily achieved) trigger to flip this over.

NOT: Archangel of Tithes (TCG Low: 13.33)
I'm not sure a beefier Windborne Muse is on par with Flooded Strand (or, conversely, you can get Flooded Strand for $13 right now!)*. To be honest, I don't even really know where this card shines. It avoids the toughness-based removal prevalent in Standard, but costs triple white and has an effect that is hard to evaluate. If this effect is broken (it hasn't been in the past), it will eventually reclaim the value it's lost... but it doesn't deserve its current price tag.

NOT: Languish (TCG Low: 7.34)
Like Nissa, Languish is awesome and it's going to be played a lot most likely. But more than $7 for a sweeper? I get that 4<5, but 5 toughness is a big benchmark in Standard right now, and previous king of sweepers Crux of Fate was no $7 (and that guy killed everything). I'm sure this is going to be the premier sweeper, but you can hold off at $7+, or reap the rewards selling at that price point.

HOT: Woodland Bellower (TCG Low: 5.99)
I'm not missing another Deathmist Raptor. I would bet dollars to donuts this card is nuts. Collected Company has instant speed and sometimes two-for-one to its name; this gives you an on-value 6/5 and your choice of <=3 cmc creature (barring Legends). Buy now, hold on, reap rewards when Standard boots Theros.

HOT: Sigil of the Empty Throne (TCG Low: 0.99)
This card was $4 at one point. Yeah, it was a win condition in "the worst" Legacy deck, but $4 for a card in the worst Legacy deck is still 4x more than your current asking price for Sigil. And Sigil wasn't legal in a Standard with Enchantment Creatures. This may be for a limited window, this may only double your value, but until Theros rotates, you have a very real threat of a mono-enchantment deck hanging over your head at all times. I think this is a safe bet where you almost cannot lose your money and, in all likelihood, will be doubling or better your investment.

HOT: Priest of the Blood Rite (TCG Low: 0.83)
5 mana for 7 power is a really good rate. There are lots of ways to avoid the drawback and/or exploit the ETB trigger (or Exploit the Priest for $$MASSIVE DEALS$$). Less than a dollar for all of this untapped potential seems almost criminal. Between the Exploit mechanic and Evolutionary Leap, plus untold other enablers/synergies, the only thing that would stand in the way of this card and value generation is a 5 cmc. In the vein of Sigil, this is a low-risk gamble that has a pretty reasonable chance at paying out.

HOT: Tragic Arrogance (TCG Low: 0.55)
If you really like gambling, "fixed" Cataclysm is half a buck on TCGPlayer right now. I don't foresee this surpassing any of the other wrath effects in Standard right now, but if you're playing the long con, I think this guy is worth your half dollar. Hot is probably the wrong expression... light simmer? Low fever?

Most of the set seems reasonably, if not over, priced, but popularity of cards in good decks or unforeseen acceptance in older formats may push values up past what I expect. Many of the cards are "obvious 4-ofs," like Exquisite Firecraft, and so a $4 price tag on something that normally wouldn't be more than a few cents at a non-Rare rarity likely inflate the price.

Of note, Harbinger of Tide is $4 right now, but compare it against Master of the Pearl Trident and you'll see why I don't think he's headed in any particular direction.

Disagree with my speculation? Think I missed something? Think you know exactly where something is headed? Tell us more below!

*7/17/2015 at 12:37 PM

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Promoted to frontpage article

[iamabadman]

i got my priest and tragic arrogance!

[iamabadman]

this was all shit

[Thrillho]

Yeah it wasn’t the best plus I missed Baby Jace entirely

[Mogadishu Jones]

It’swas always all shit.