How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

[LP, of the Fires]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles ... ur-spells/

There's math in there that only Ham can appreciate.

[hamfactorial]

That article is very good

[Zooligan]

Did anyone get his sim code to run? One problem I found with his code was that while he was calculating how much mana you needed to cast a particular card on Tx, he wasn't factoring in actually having that card on that turn as well.

[hamfactorial]

Perhaps he should have consulted my post before writing his. lozlzlozl

[Pedros]

Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:

I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?

[Dechs Kaison]

Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:

I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?

What the %'s mean is how likely it is that on turn three you'll have your third land. Basically, at 50% it just as likely to have your third land by turn three than it is you won't have it. Half of your games will have 3 lands on turn 3; the other half won't. Is that good enough for you?

I can't answer what the correct number is, only you know that. Will your deck survive with half of its games not having a third land on turn
three?

[magicdownunder]

hamfactorial!! What is the optimal amount of lands to play if you ONLY want to see 3 lands (no more no less) - I only have 4x 3cc spells so I don't really care if i don't hit 3 lands on the curve though hitting 2 lands sure is nice...?

[hamfactorial]

If you only want to see 3 lands no more no less, play a 3 card deck (all land)



Pick a land count that drops below 50% for the turn after you want to play your last land.

[Dechs Kaison]

Hey Ham, I think someone broke your OP. There's a few extra returns and some broken tags.

[hamfactorial]

Hmm, that doesn't look good. Thanks Dechs, I didn't know it was looking wonky.

[hamfactorial]

I think I got all the weird formatting ironed out. Please let me know if something still looks wrong.

[Platypus]

I don't know what the problems were with this, but I had some weird formatting and broken tags in the UR Delver primer post as well. Fixed it on Oct 7th which was after the port, right? So, yeah could have been the port.

[Jack]

It happened with my Riku primer as well, and, from what I've noticed, many of the longer posts from a while ago.

[Whole]

I'd just like to point out that if you want to calculate a quick probability, you can use Calculators online instead of opening a spreadsheet. http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspx

[Kaitscralt]

Quite.

[hamfactorial]

[magicdownunder]

The photos are dead I had to mash the numbers myself D:

[hamfactorial]

Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.

[( G_R )]

Ya blew it.

Enviado de meu SM-G935F usando Tapatalk

[imopen2]

Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.

will this ever happen? also, these tables are sweet. have you perhaps done some calculations for 40-card limited decks and number of lands drawn by turn X? it may have been one of the missing ones...

[admin]

I mean, we can simply host the images here and update the links.

Ham, if you want me to do that, just zip them and put them somewhere and I'll take care of business