Hot or Not: DTK

[Thrillho]

Instead of listing prices as-per-usual, I thought I'd try something new for DTK since I haven't done one of these new set threads in a while.

I've been watching the DTK price spread pretty closely throughout presale season. I've watched cards I preordered (this is the first time I've preordered cards since Gatecrash) dissolve in price while others soared. Here's some speculation targets I've seen in DTK, some value recommendations, and final thoughts:

NOT: Narset Transcendent (current low on TCGPlayer $34.75, free shipping)
I haven't been the most keen on Narset, because 4cc for a Domri Rade effect doesn't strike me. But I'm ignoring that with my review. $35 is not what Planeswalkers wind up being worth, even if they make it big. And Narset needs a very specific deck and build to achieve baseline playability (she does interact positively w/ multiple copies of herself, which is a huge selling point). Narset isn't bad -- I suspect that my naysaying is excessive to results she will actually put up. But compare to Elspeth, Sun's Champion (a mainstay of multiple archetypes throughout her Standard legality). She had a presale of $20, a height of $32.45, and a plateau value of around $13-15.

NOT: Deathmist Raptor (current low on TCGPlayer $14.40, free shipping)
Name a creature with morph that currently sees play in Standard. I'll wait.
Deathmist Raptor had a presale price hanging around $5 for weeks, and even that seemed like highway robbery to me.
One copy interacts favorably with other copies. The 2cc megamorph cycle interacts favorably with this. Devotionling interacts favorably with this (UUU_1GG.dec hype). Many have compared this to Bloodghast or Nether Spirit, but without their drawbacks. The selling points to those cards, however, was that you didn't have to do anything to make them live, drawbacks or not. Play a land and return Bloodghast. Just don't have any other creatures in your graveyard and return Nether Spirit. Unmorph a morph and you get this back. Meaning you need to have Morph creatures in your deck, play them face down, and pay the unmorph cost for what? Deathtouch Trained Armadon? That's a lot of work for only-ok value.

HOT: All of the Dragonlords (Highest is Ojutai at $6.44, free shipping)
They're all mythic. They're all undercosted. They're all Dragons. They all do stuff. $6 may very well be the sweet spot for these, but I have a feeling that if any catch on that they won't stay at or around $6. I don't think they're worth speculating on because you'll be spending a lot to miss, but I would make sure you have your requisite number for deckbuilding to avoid getting gouged in the event any gain traction. Personal favorites are the current three most expensive -- Ojutai, Dromoka, and Atarka, respectively.

HOT: Atarka and Dromoka's Commands (current low on TCGPlayer $4.87 and $4.74, free shipping, respectively)
Given the kind of press Dromoka's Command has received, I'm surprised it stayed around $3-4 for as long as it did. If it pays out, expect a spike. Imagine it sees play in older formats (at bit of a pipe dream, but let's pretend for a second).
Atarka's Command is a shoe in across formats. $5 seems right for it. It won't stay $5 because there's going to be a swell of interest and people are going to want them. This is a short term "grab a bunch and then dump them when the value rises" card. This is a "have your playset because playsets will be gouged" card.

HOT: Icefall Regent (current low on TCGPlayer $1.37, free shipping)
I'm thinking long-term here with this, so bare with me. I also think this card will fall a bit before it increases, even more reason to take this with a grain of salt. Icefall Regent is a flying Frost Titan for 1-less mana. That's awesome. It's Dungeon Geists for permanents. If it gains a foothold in a post-Theros standard (or is a card in U Devotion), I expect copies that were once $1 or less to go for $3-5. Essentially, I expect this to pull a Mastery of the Unseen.

HOT: Ire Shaman (current low on TCGPlayer $1.19, free shipping)
Ire Shaman seems like a card that has numerous applications in aggressive red decks in Standard, as a value card outside of aggressive red decks in and outside of Standard, and generally a something worth way more than $1.20. It's essentially a split-card that acts as a Welkin Tern that can block in 1R mode and an evasive 3-power Silvergill Adept in 3R mode, which you can choose to spend over multiple turns. This card dropped to around $0.70 and then shot back up to $1.20 the week before prerelease.

HOT: Roast (current low on TCGPlayer $0.65, free shipping)
Roast is everyone's MVP for the set because it has applications in Modern as well as Standard as "the card red needs," so it's probably going to be $1+ right out of the gate, depress, and then go back up after people stop opening packs.

What cards do you think are over or underlooked in presale? Think these predictions are bogus? Discuss!

[Pedrobear]

As I'm not following the US market, I will just add my point for the European market but it might be the same.

- Thunderbreak Regent (low from 3.05€)
3€ is what you want for this type of card, it might go higher as people would want them as 4-of and then stabilize at a lower price.

- Dragon Whisperer (low from 3.50€)
I t was much higher because it is a mythic, now it is a good price for it.

Both could see a play as 4-of in most Red decks. I think they might both go up in price right now. let's see what are the first movements after the week-1 metagame.

[Thrillho]

With those two cards, the former is only a rare that is currently selling for $6/€3. That's a lot for a regular rare, and one that is unlikely to be universally received or see play in older formats (compare vs Siege Rhino or Dig Through Time).
Dragon Whisperer, while mythic, is more limited than Thunderbreak Regent in deck types it can go in. It is also less aggressive that other cards of the same cost (ie, has no haste, no value on ETB). While it fills a space in the 2 slot of aggressive decks and does so admirably, it compares to the leveling version from ROE, that dropped to $3 while in standard. $6 I think is a good price, because it seems unlikely that mono red is the premier deck of the coming Standard, but that the card will likely play an important role in that deck.

When evaluating prices of these cards, always keep in mind where that card measures up against other cards that are similar to it (or better) in other decks. Like above in the Siege Rhino example -- whatever deck plays the Regent may have it play the same role in the curve as Rhino, but Rhino is a tier-1 threat not only in Standard, but Modern as well with limited adoption in Legacy. Despite this, it is only $6. Do you think Regent will see Legacy play? Modern play? Will it be the lynchpin in a tier 1 deck in any of those formats? Likely not. As a result, $6 may even be too much for it.

[Thrillho]

I would point out that those two cards immediately shot way up ($2+) since the time of your post. As have all of the "hot" cards I listed except Ire Shaman, Roast, and Kolgathan/spelling

[Pedrobear]

Well fuck it's too late for me to move.

Maybe there is some delay between our 2 markets and I can find something tonight !

[Col. Khaddafi]

Yeah, what I like about the European Card Market, and MKM in particular, is that it has a much slower response time to the trends, so its usually not a cutthroat rush to ebay/tcgplayer to get the last cheap cards while everyone else is doing the same.

[Thrillho]

It's release week and no one wants to not have their cards even though (spoiler) they won't get them until after their release week events.

[Pedrobear]

Week one Europearn market follow-up :
-Thunderbreak regent price has doubled (3 to 6), even though she didn't show a lot during this week-end.
-Dragonlord Ojutai went the same way (3.5 to 9), good call from you Thrillho and we have seen it as 2-of in many UW lists.
-Same for the new Sidisi (1.5 -> 3), which we could see been played a lot more. Satyr Wayfinder playing decks are very interesting in recycling it for a tutor. I think it is a reasonnable price for a card that can be played in Modern imo.

Not other notable change, a lot of good cards are still at a good price and we can still bet on some hot cards before the Pro Tour which would certainly determine a new metagame.

[Thrillho]

I "missed" on Deathmist Raptor, but I still think the card is some garbage... but how bad can it be when it has such powerful synergy with Master the Unseen?

Thunderbreak went up against my neutral expectations for it. Unless it starts putting up results, I can't see it maintaining its hover around double digits.

The commands I suggested are at or higher than their base price.

Roast went up by about 30 cents, and I don't see this changing if Banishing Light could be $1+ for most of its time as a Standard legal card.

Icefall Regent is steady. Megamorph cycle has barely budged but I'm still rooting from the sidelines for Ire Shaman.

[LP, of the Fires]

Secure the wastes and Surrak where cards I was keen on and they had decent jumps from where they where. I think wastes is around 3.50USD and Surrak is around 5. The ships have somewhat sailed, though it's possible wastes goes up to 5 pending PT results.

[Thrillho]

secure the wastes was preselling at 3.5 and is currently selling at slightly less than that amount (3.20~ w/ shipping on most stores).
surrak is currently 3.5, up from a 1.5 presale.

i'm not too keen on surrak after watching it "perform" at SCG this past weekend, but i guess we'll see if anyone tries out RG at the PT.

TCGPlayer has a line graph that shows you where a price is and where it's been so you can literally track what a price has been doing.

[Blackhound]

Collected Company ?

[Thrillho]

yes, that is a card that exists in the trading card game known worldwide as "magic the gathering."

if you question is "whether this card is hot or not" the answer is it's consistently spiraled downward in price since being spoiled, has not connected in standard (where it will likely never connect because 22 3cc or less creatures.dec isn't a thing), and is presumably the only 4cc spell in a zoo deck that plays no 4cc spells and honestly why would it because your opponent is supposed to be dead by the time you can cast it (and to be honest you have better things to be doing). i would vote not and people who have actual titles under their belt seem to agree with me.

it is not on the hot or not list because cards that consistently go down in price have no question to whether or not they're hot.

[Thrillho]

Dragonlord Atarka is temporarily sold out at the tail end of day 1 PT DTK except for 2 copies (at $9 w/ shipping and $13, respectively) on TCGPlayer. It is also sold out on SCG.
Den Protector and Haven of the Spirit Dragon are both spiking during the coverage. I honestly should have just made a blanket HOT for all of the rare megamorph cycle, but I didn't have that much faith in the White and Black ones to truly be "hot" and I wasn't entirely sure a 6-mana Eternal Witness was still OP.

[Jamie]

Wow
mtg finance seems so easy

[Thrillho]

it is for me.

[Thrillho]

Dromoka's command is $7. Den protector is back down to $3.~50. Atarka has settled around $13+. Narset is slowly receding because she didn't really clean up at the pro tour (Suligmar lost a few cents as well).
Secure the Wastes is stable despite helping Efro into t8 contention at the pro tour. Surrak is stable.
Ojutai is $15 now, 3x its presale price low.
Atarka's command is stable.
Dromoka is stable.
Zurgo is stable despite the red invasion at the PT day 2.

[Thrillho]

Narset is starting to get deflated after doing nothing at the PT (current low of $26)
Atarka and Ojutai are around $17 each
Silumgar and Deathmist are $15 (Silumgar, notably, nearly tripled in value after not budging for most of the weekend)
Dromoka's Command is $8
Atarka's Command is up to $5 finally and climbing
Haven of the Spirit Dragon is up to $5
Not much movement on Secure the Wastes or Surrak (sorry boys)
Zurgo is pushing $4
Den Protector is hovering in and around $4+
Icefall Regent is at or above $5
Anticipate is hovering around $.50 for a common, Roast is hovering around $1 for an uncommon

That's really it for the big movers and shakers among the hot or not list after we've all had a chance to read and digest the PT results.

[Thrillho]

Narset has fallen from the top slot and is replaced by Ojutai, who is $25 low (Narset is $21 and change)
Atarka is $16
Sulimgar is up to $14
Thunderbreak Regent has cooled slightly from double digits to $8-9
Dromoka's Command is $8
Atarka's Command is $7
Den Protector is $4
Sidisi has dropped from $5 to $4
Haven of the Spirit Dragon is pushing $5
Icefall Regent is $4
Surrak has fallen to $2 and change
Ire Shaman is $.44 but if I believe hard enough I know he can do it

[Blackhound]

http://www.mtgtop8.com/search

[Thrillho]

Collected Company is now "hot" as is Deathmist Raptor.

Unrelated, but I think CoCo is pretty miserable. But opinions on the card aside, it is now a "hot" card.

[Blackhound]

why you think its miserable ?

[Thrillho]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles ... e-numbers/

It has bad numbers in either iteration in Modern and AFAIK does nothing in Standard.

[Blackhound]

Elves just won a modern Gp.

[Thrillho]

Ok, I'm very happy for you that your pet deck/card did good in a major event. It may gain in value after this weekend.
That does nothing to address the fact that it has a less than 50% win percentage against the field.

[Thrillho]

I was waiting for Kolaghan's Command to go down in value a bit more before buying them and only bought foils in the meanwhile to compensate.
In that short span of time, non-foil single prices have surged above what I had paid at the time for foil copies, to $7 from $1.5.