Greatest Idea Mafia *** Game Over ***

[WitchHunt]

To follow up with my statement, I went with a universal ability, not just one that limits me to tracking down one faction.

[RedNihilist]

Now I think that it would be a good time to claim being Lover.
Just for the sake of it.
Is anybody else in love with me?

Say there is an Alien faction with one NK, or a faction that has a NK that hasn't been using it, wouldn't claiming be the absolute worse thing the lovers could ever possibly do?

You're right, but I actually wanted to bait some false claim.
I'm 100% sure that, provided there's any other Lover out there, he wouldn't claim at this point of the game.

[Dechs Kaison]

Now I think that it would be a good time to claim being Lover.
Just for the sake of it.
Is anybody else in love with me?

Say there is an Alien faction with one NK, or a faction that has a NK that hasn't been using it, wouldn't claiming be the absolute worse thing the lovers could ever possibly do?

To expand on this: Can someone help me understand the Lover role? When would it ever be useful to claim this? As you're about to die to get people to unvote you? What kind of upside could Lover possibly be?

I don't know if the ability is all downside or if I'm just not seeing something.

[RedNihilist]

It's technically just a downside.

[Dechs Kaison]

Now I think that it would be a good time to claim being Lover.
Just for the sake of it.
Is anybody else in love with me?

Say there is an Alien faction with one NK, or a faction that has a NK that hasn't been using it, wouldn't claiming be the absolute worse thing the lovers could ever possibly do?

You're right, but I actually wanted to bait some false claim.
I'm 100% sure that, provided there's any other Lover out there, he wouldn't claim at this point of the game.

I get it. You chose a Lover ability, but since there are no other Lovers, you were reverted to Vanilla. Anyone who claimed Lover must have been lying.

Am I close?

[RedNihilist]

Yup, at this point of the game I'm just worse than a Town Vanilla, so I decided to claim my loverness in order to try to bait fake claims from people that wanted to avoid being lynched.

[Stardust]

Red, if that was a gambit, why did you come out and say all that before everyone had even posted?

You can rule out all that stuff, but somehow you're still treating me with suspicion. Why?

Because you were being disingenuous and changing your story, but now I see that you're just delusional and stubborn. The fact that you're keeping on this without much support (and with me pushing back) makes me think that you're probably coming from the right place though. You're right that close to the same thing applies to you too, so yeah, you're town. Should check the revealed role PM's again - see if the same thing applies to others.

I was phone posting last night, so I forgot to talk about Cult and Lyncher, but sure. Two things you need to agree with: 1) I want to win this game and will generally make choices to further that cause, and 2) I do tend to get nightkilled early, and I also tend to get lynched later on if we haven't caught the scum. Can we at least agree on that basic premise?

Cult, especially Cult without a recruit ability, is strictly worse than Werewolf. The only twist to this is that I'm Black Goo, which could take the place of a recuit ability, though it's a lot more random. I say that if I was Cult Black Goo I wouldn't have claimed my ability in the first post. I stand by this, but you counter with the possibility that I was banking on someone coming up with the plan to target me. Read that section of the game again though. Not only did I fight back against this idea, I actually provided a percentage analysis to say why it was a bad idea that wouldn't work. Does this make sense? No. I would have pretended to fight against it, sure, but no way would I provide you with more details you might not have thought to check yourself. That was the final nail in that coffin and the plan dissipated.

So how about Lyncher? I can't conclusively prove that I'm not a Lyncher since you seem hell bent on pegging me as something, but you basically agreed that I haven't acted like a Lyncher at all. Moving around, the hammer end of Day (which would probably raise suspicions), and being perfectly happy being fitted in somewhere in the lynch list are all indicative that I'm not a Lyncher. But I guess that I am the greatest mafia player that ever lived and therefore you should be scared of me no matter what insignificant percent chance there is that I'm not town. Speaking of insignificant percentages, there's less than a 2% chance that my third card would be a Lyncher and not some kind of Town. Also, I think if I was a Lyncher I would have claimed my Black Goo ability at the end of Day 1, only once I see that my prefered lynch wasn't going to happen. Claiming the Town Supersaint card when I didn't need to would have been an unnecessary risk.

If you still think I'm not town, I'm not talking to you anymore.

[RedNihilist]

Red, if that was a gambit, why did you come out and say all that before everyone had even posted?

This game is dull, and WitchHunt already pointed out that claiming would have been wrong, so there was no point in trying to keep it up.

[Stardust]

Should check the revealed role PM's again - see if the same thing applies to others.

Nope, just me and you. rcw discarded a mafia card, but he's a special case. Actually, taking that into account makes it that much more likely that he's Judas rather than Saulus, now that I think about it. His third card was Werewolf Ninja, right? That makes his three cards Mafia, Werewolf and Saulus/Judas. Considering Saulus doesn't have access to the quicktopic or nightkill, why would he choose to be aligned with the mafia faction rather than just choose mafia? Especially since he could have been a Mafia Ninja, making his nightkill that much more effective. Obviously rcw wanted to be town really badly and was forced to pick the closest thing. By choosing Judas, if he avoids the lynch, he's able to play just like anyone else.

This game is dull, and WitchHunt already pointed out that claiming would have been wrong, so there was no point in trying to keep it up.

This game is dull. Now lynch rcw with me so we can move on to the next game!

[RedNihilist]

Yeah, I guess that's the more reasonable choice.
Vote rcwraspy

[imopen2]

okay, dechs is town

Why do you keep saying this? It's the second time I've noticed it and both times it's been after I've made a case for hanging you, then started after someone else.

Well, I don't remember saying it before, but I believe you. I like to say that when I think it. That way I'm less likely to forget later.

Your mindset was very townie, and your conclusions followed my own thought process. I think you're town

[rcwraspy]

Should check the revealed role PM's again - see if the same thing applies to others.

Nope, just me and you. rcw discarded a mafia card, but he's a special case. Actually, taking that into account makes it that much more likely that he's Judas rather than Saulus, now that I think about it. His third card was Werewolf Ninja, right? That makes his three cards Mafia, Werewolf and Saulus/Judas. Considering Saulus doesn't have access to the quicktopic or nightkill, why would he choose to be aligned with the mafia faction rather than just choose mafia? Especially since he could have been a Mafia Ninja, making his nightkill that much more effective. Obviously rcw wanted to be town really badly and was forced to pick the closest thing. By choosing Judas, if he avoids the lynch, he's able to play just like anyone else.

This game is dull, and WitchHunt already pointed out that claiming would have been wrong, so there was no point in trying to keep it up.

This game is dull. Now lynch rcw with me so we can move on to the next game!

I chose what I thought was the most interesting. Which was saulus. Not out of a desire to be town but because it was unique.

Now that there's a little sustained pressure you're really trying to think of anything.

I've always been fine lynching Imopen or Stardust. Stardust took the role that is anti town and it got confirmed by Ham. Imopen has proven roles that can be good town roles. Stardust is the better Lynch.

unvote

vote Stardust

[rcwraspy]

I'm not sure I'm okay with lynching rcw at the moment, will post later about it.

What prompted this and then what changed?

[Stardust]

Looking further into Azrael, I'd actually be up for lynching him today instead of rcw. rcw is good, but not a sure thing, mostly on the table due to a lack of other compelling scum reads. Azrael looked okay out of the gates, playing some games and getting some reads, but comparing this game to Lego, there are some huge differences.

1) He's far less active in general and especially less active at pursuing scum reads. Here he throws out random "concerns" frequently, but doesn't really follow up. He's not active lurking (posting for the sake of posting), but he's leaving everyone else to do the dirty work. This is a good way to seem helpful while staying out of the spotlight after a mislynch.
2) He doesn't do his own homework. Modding Lego, Azrael was sending me sometimes multiple PM's in a day clarifying things. Here he has random thoughts on all the scary business the town should worry about, but it's mostly been me following up with rezmo. I feel like the Azrael I know would know all of this already.
3) Inability to review the game state given other information. This game is very very different from normal mafia, especially now given what we know. I feel like Azrael is clinging to the normal way of doing things, and is maybe having a hard time adjusting his scum game to what he really should know as a townie here.

I don't really care enough to get off rcw at the moment since I'd be happy if we just lynched him and got this game moving, but there's some food for thought.



PEDIT: Meh.

[Stardust]

One thing I meant to say is that Azrael is playing exactly like I would play if I was Cult or Alien or whatever. He's probably all by himself, is a high-profile player who will be expected to get results, and knows full well that he won't survive to endgame since people just won't trust him. He'll try a bit, sure, but putting in real effort to increase your chance of winning from 2% to 5% is not a good ROI. I've been in that situation before and it's just really hard to get motivated to participate at all even though you do want to try.

[rcwraspy]

RCW is a known entity. I believe that he's the good guy. If I'm wrong and he is a town threat, he's at least one that cannot kill us.

Stardust, I'd like you to talk about this. Obviously I'm biased but I thought this was a really good point. I'm either Saulus or Judas and have been lynched. It's 50/50. If I was Saulus then I'm now town. If I was Judas then I'm now neutered mafia with no qt and no kill. What is the town incentive for lynching me?

[Azrael]

I'm actually having a tough time getting into this game, for the simple reason that my experience has been that playing against neutrals is a total crapshoot. There's a slight chance you can trust some of your stronger town-reads, still, but even that's difficult when you're playing against people who are genuinely trying to find other scum. They don't have to act like they're hunting scum - they actually are.

I'm also up to a few other things, but nothing particularly exciting or worth discussing.

I'm not certain how to take your argument based on card selection. There's a certain logic to it, but it's also asking us to put a lot of faith in the assumption that you're playing to maximize your chances of winning, and also that you didn't find the synergy of a black goo/cultist line of play too much to resist.

I don't especially know you well enough to be confident in that assessment, but what I do have is you plotting out the steps of the game far in advance as if you know that the game will continue for that long, and the premature hammer was just awful. Nobody else has given jack in terms of competing wagon evidence so far as I can see. RCW, obviously, is a real competitor too. But at least he's also given a relatively decent behavioral explanation for being Saulus over Judas, and I'm not uncomfortable letting him stick around a bit longer in the order based on that provisional read.

[Stardust]

RCW is a known entity. I believe that he's the good guy. If I'm wrong and he is a town threat, he's at least one that cannot kill us.

Stardust, I'd like you to talk about this. Obviously I'm biased but I thought this was a really good point. I'm either Saulus or Judas and have been lynched. It's 50/50. If I was Saulus then I'm now town. If I was Judas then I'm now neutered mafia with no qt and no kill. What is the town incentive for lynching me?

The incentive is that we would have to lynch you to win the game. You might be the only threat left. If you're town, or if you're not the only threat left, I don't believe you're a whole lot less dangerous than whatever other threat is out there. If there is another threat, it's not killing us or recruiting us, same as you. The fact that you're a known entity actually makes me want to get rid of you more simply because we don't even know if there's anything else is out there. Having you flip town confirms that we should bother spending our time sniffing out someone else.

[rcwraspy]

RCW is a known entity. I believe that he's the good guy. If I'm wrong and he is a town threat, he's at least one that cannot kill us.

Stardust, I'd like you to talk about this. Obviously I'm biased but I thought this was a really good point. I'm either Saulus or Judas and have been lynched. It's 50/50. If I was Saulus then I'm now town. If I was Judas then I'm now neutered mafia with no qt and no kill. What is the town incentive for lynching me?

The incentive is that we would have to lynch you to win the game. You might be the only threat left. If you're town, or if you're not the only threat left, I don't believe you're a whole lot less dangerous than whatever other threat is out there. If there is another threat, it's not killing us or recruiting us, same as you. The fact that you're a known entity actually makes me want to get rid of you more simply because we don't even know if there's anything else is out there. Having you flip town confirms that we should bother spending our time sniffing out someone else.

There are 7 alive. iirc we were told minimum 4 town. If you really think there are 6 town then I'm on board. I'm town but recognize that I'm the only one who knows that and to others I'm 50/50. So if there are 6 town and 1 threat then it's a good lynch.

Let's take the other extreme. What if there were only 4 town to start the game and Ham was one of them? That leaves 3 town and 4 threats spread over a few possible factions. Do you really want to lynch the guy you know can't hurt you?

[Stardust]

...my experience has been that playing against neutrals is a total crapshoot.

You say this, yet you don't understand why I don't care if we lynch my number 2 choice instead of my number 1?

I'm not certain how to take your argument based on card selection. There's a certain logic to it, but it's also asking us to put a lot of faith in the assumption that you're playing to maximize your chances of winning, and also that you didn't find the synergy of a black goo/cultist line of play too much to resist.

If I was a Black Goo Cultist, would I give Dechs (and others) a compelling argument to not target me Day 1? Would I claim Black Goo, or just hope that all the cops and trackers and watchers and doctors and nightkills gravitate towards me Night 1 (like they often do naturally)? You weren't even in the game at that point, making me the big fish in this little pond and a likely target if I just let nature run its course.

Bulletproof is my favourite role - that was discussed in WePick Mafia a bit. Town is my favourite alignment - that was discussed in the signups thread at some point. All you really have to take on faith is that I'm unlikely to survive to endgame and that choosing an alignment that's likely to see me needing to survive to endgame is going to end badly. You probably can tell from what you do know of me that I don't choose things for Chaos.

I don't especially know you well enough to be confident in that assessment, but what I do have is you plotting out the steps of the game far in advance as if you know that the game will continue for that long, and the premature hammer was just awful.

Show me where I'm plotting out the steps.

As for my hammer, this game is over a month old and nothing has happened. As of Night 3 we knew exactly what the threats were - there are none. Remember at the end of Lego Mafia when we talked about keeping the pace up to keep people into the game? Red was right, this game is dull. There's nothing to read into and people are still dancing around lynches like they're the end of the world. The town controls all the kills! So let's get moving down that list before we all die of old age, because nothing else is killing us!

[Stardust]

Let's take the other extreme. What if there were only 4 town to start the game and Ham was one of them? That leaves 3 town and 4 threats spread over a few possible factions. Do you really want to lynch the guy you know can't hurt you?

Prove to me that this is the situation and we'll talk. Give me a decent lynch alternative even. I don't need to lynch you today, but you're a good bet and I just want to get this game moving.

[rcwraspy]

In reality it's probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. But your refusal to account for that in your actions reads as non-town motivation.

[Azrael]

Alright. Vote Red Nihilist.

[rcwraspy]

Alright. Vote Red Nihilist.

I like this but want to hear from you about it.

[RedNihilist]

I'm not sure I'm okay with lynching rcw at the moment, will post later about it.

What prompted this and then what changed?

I don't like follow pre-built trails, yet after some time I have yet to see alternative, feasible routes.

[RedNihilist]

Yeah, this is actually interesting.
Are you trying to move the aim towards me just for the sake of it or do you just like to lynch your null reads?

[rezombad]

Votecount 4.1

rcwraspy (3): imopen2 [535], Stardust [551], Rednihilist [610]

Stardust (2): Dechs Kaison [576], rcwraspy [612]

RedNihilist (1): Azrael [623]

Not Voting (1): WitchHunt [531]

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

-----

[Stardust]

rcw, can you give us a town/scum list? So far today you've been up for lynching imopen, me, WitchHunt and now RedNihilist.

[Azrael]

Yeah, this is actually interesting.
Are you trying to move the aim towards me just for the sake of it or do you just like to lynch your null reads?

It's day 4 and I've got no pro-town evidence on you. Everybody else has got *some* reason not to lynch them today.

Stardust's defense is based on his love of being town plus the cards he discarded.
Witch Hunt I could see lynching, but he actually talks enough for me to get a better read on him potentially.
Imopen is reading town. I'm not sure I like his role-claim, and it might be a false positive, but it's not something I want to pursue.
Dechs is reading hard town.
RCW is reading Saulus.

Process of elimination.

[Stardust]

Azrael, explain to me how it's possible that WitchHunt is not town. Do you think he chose Cop/Lover as his ability? Do you think he targeted me at some point?

[RedNihilist]

Yeah, this is actually interesting.
Are you trying to move the aim towards me just for the sake of it or do you just like to lynch your null reads?

It's day 4 and I've got no pro-town evidence on you. Everybody else has got *some* reason not to lynch them today.

Stardust's defense is based on his love of being town plus the cards he discarded.
Witch Hunt I could see lynching, but he actually talks enough for me to get a better read on him potentially.
Imopen is reading town. I'm not sure I like his role-claim, and it might be a false positive, but it's not something I want to pursue.
Dechs is reading hard town.
RCW is reading Saulus.

Process of elimination.

I also guess that you're acting like this on your own, it's not like you suddenly felt the need to show how active you are, right?
Tell me more of this Saulus read you've got on RCW.

[Stardust]

New game.

rcw, what was the meaning of this post?

[rcwraspy]

New game.

rcw, what was the meaning of this post?

That was in response to the Ham/Az stuff. There's a difference between meta and vendetta.

[Stardust]

Ok, that's what I thought. Wanted to confirm that you weren't talking about the fact that you were lynched and about to switch alignments.

Anyway, I just reread the game and pretty much want to lynch rcw more now than ever. His actions at the beginning of this day didn't really make sense, in particular the accusations of WitchHunt and unwillingness to elaborate despite thinking he was getting lynched. imopen got bumped up on my town-o-meter and Azrael is looking a little worse after a review of LMD's posts too. There was also that one time when I speculated that Red might be neutral, and though that's weak, I feel good about him an imopen switching places on my list.

Not much change overall, but here's where I'm currently sitting.

rcwraspy
Azrael
RedNihilist
imopen2
Dechs Kaison
WitchHunt

[rcwraspy]

rcw, can you give us a town/scum list? So far today you've been up for lynching imopen, me, WitchHunt and now RedNihilist.

Is this a little misinformation tactic? I've never voted WitchHunt or Red, and never overtly called either one of them scum.

I didn't like that post from WitchHunt because it sounded exactly like the posts I make when I'm scum and I get nailed for them. But it's really the only thing I've noticed against him so I'm not going to spend too much time on it if nobody else cares. I'm still not sure how the cards confirm him town, but everybody else seems to agree with that so whatever.

Red was completely null to me until he barned your vote on me. That type of barn with no real contribution is a scum-tell and it made me remember earlier in the game day he said he didn't like voting me and would elaborate - which never came. That's also a scum tell. So Red very quickly moved from completely null to leaning scum. Obviously Azrael saw something too and I'd like him to elaborate.

Dechs is my strongest town read.

Azrael is leaning town, but I still mistrust how he entered the game with imopen.

Imopen and Stardust have always been the two I trust the least in this game. I've been very clear about that. Imopen has claimed town-oriented roles and it appears they've been somewhat confirmed. That doesn't automatically make him town, but Black Goo is simply not a town-oriented role. There are too many town roles that allow you to target for Black Goo to be something a townie would choose.

In a game like this a T/S list, or even saying someone is scummy, is a little off since there are so many factions. So when I say scummy I really just mean non-town. Here's my list of least town to most town:

Stardust
Imopen
RedNihilist
Azrael
WitchHunt
Dechs
RCWRaspy

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm not hanging RCW. It doesn't feel right and after Lego I'm trusting my gut when it tells me not to lynch someone.

He's at L-1, you can do it without me if you really want.

[rcwraspy]

Yeah, this is actually interesting.
Are you trying to move the aim towards me just for the sake of it or do you just like to lynch your null reads?

It's day 4 and I've got no pro-town evidence on you. Everybody else has got *some* reason not to lynch them today.

Stardust's defense is based on his love of being town plus the cards he discarded.
Witch Hunt I could see lynching, but he actually talks enough for me to get a better read on him potentially.
Imopen is reading town. I'm not sure I like his role-claim, and it might be a false positive, but it's not something I want to pursue.
Dechs is reading hard town.
RCW is reading Saulus.

Process of elimination.

I also guess that you're acting like this on your own, it's not like you suddenly felt the need to show how active you are, right?
Tell me more of this Saulus read you've got on RCW.

Throws mud, makes someone else do the work.

[Stardust]

Dechs, who do you want to lynch? Me still?

Is this a little misinformation tactic? I've never voted WitchHunt or Red, and never overtly called either one of them scum.

Saying you were "up for lynching" them was maybe a bit strong, but the fact that you've been a bit jumpy today, moving to whatever wagon at the time, caught my eye. I like this latest post of yours though. Feels townie and your reasoning is good, even if there's not much concrete there. We'll see what Azrael comes back with here. I might be convinced to lynch him or Red today instead of you.

There are too many town roles that allow you to target for Black Goo to be something a townie would choose.

That might have something to do with the fact that I claimed in my first post.

[rcwraspy]

Maybe, but you have to realize that you chose both a role and a first post that are laden with WIFOM. That's going to make people mistrust you.

[Stardust]

I don't expect to trust me because of my role (well, maybe now with what's come to light, but not from my first post), but I do expect you to treat it as WIFOM instead of as evidence.