Greatest Idea Mafia *** Game Over ***

[Dechs Kaison]

Regardless, the fact remains that repeated times you have stated one position, then taken action that directly opposes that stated position.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also, at you painting me in a negative light for not liking your plan at the start.

Suck it up. Your reasoning was shitty.

[RedNihilist]

i thought semantics weren't important to you, dechs?

my posts are short because i don't put a lot of thought into them. i post what i think and feel, and i follow the town when i'm indifferent.

btw, you've taken notice of the right pattern, but you've come to the wrong conclusion. but, like you say, you're a mafia noob, so i won't hold it against you.

So, you're indifferent.

Vote imopen2

Let's see if you start caring then.

[rcwraspy]

Hell yeah now we're getting somewhere. As I've stated imopen2's been my biggest scumspect for a while. Happy to put him to L-2.

vote imopen2

[Jamie]

Does the game end with one winner if a lyncher successfully lynches the lynchee?

[Dechs Kaison]

No.

[rezombad]

Seeking replacement for Lord_Mcdonalds

[rezombad]

Azrael has replaced Lord_Mcdonalds

[hamfactorial]

[Azrael]

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWR

[Azrael]

Has LMD claimed yet?

[Azrael]

Also, I've only read a single post this game, but Imopen is town.

[Azrael]

Actually, nevermind.

[imopen2]

Nope, this will probably make me care less. You guys can never figure out when I'm town, and, once again, you're pushing for information that will only help the scum. Lynch me if you really think I've been more scummy than RCW, but the case against me is weak as fuck and you deserve to lose for following it.

[Azrael]

Hmm, Stardust +town points for the claim. I like post 14.

Already off to a pretty interesting start here, such a bold claim right off the bat could go either way couldn't it? I'm not going to weigh into it too much this early on, I just feel like we could go in circles with the mind games the claim starts though.

To Raspy, no I did not edit my message. It was specified that if not enough town were in the game though, new cards would be sent out and roles would be repicked, don't know if that had something to do with it. I only received the one message however, so I don't know if this happened or not.

Very much dislike the fence-sitting here; reads like he wants to incriminate Stardust/plant doubt, while being simultaneously hesitant to commit to it. Good double-tell.

--

First impression is that DK's suspicion of Stardust's convenient claim is genuine/healthy townie paranoia.

--

Heh, everyone targeting Stardust is cute.

Wish we could learn accurately who all the targeting roles are this game, but the cost-benefit doesn't work out, I think.

--

Usually people vote for someone - it doesn't matter who - because it forces them to reveal information or they die. That's literally the defense rcwraspy used "I won't say anything because 2 votes isn't enough". I'd err on the side of rcwraspy is playing it safe and not something like he has a big powerrole he can't even hint at.

vote Dechs Kaison

Why the vote?

--

74 and 75 sound like townie Dechs.


-

Jamie's 80 is townish.

--

I don't understand why Stardust is trying to push a lurk-wagon on what, page two of the thread? Not that I think he's scum, just that the case against Dechs is silly.

As a corollary not sure why Rcwaspy think it's a decent case.

--

Yea. I see that. He felt it gave less info tl the mafia and he didn't want the other role that was attached to the second town card. I guess that makes sense.

I'm caught up.

Stardust's claim is wonky, but probably true. At least I think it's very likely that he was dealt the black goo card (based off dechs' numbers on false claiming power roles). He could have not used that ability, and simply claim it anyway, or he could be a mafia black goo or whatever, but it's not something I am anxious to test. We lose too much if he's telling the truth. That being said, there was a moment when stardust did not come across as his normal townie self...this game might be hard.

Town.

If there is a vig, I would say shoot dusty, his op is basically a huge piece of wifom, that I feel ultimately confuses the town more than anything

Those were my thoughts as well when I first read it. The only issue is we potentially lose two town members instead of one, because if Stardust flips town black goo, then we know damn well that vig is a cultist now.

What do you mean by "weed out some townies"?

The way I first read it was "If all of town targets him it puts town in a position to win", since turning a town member into a cult member isn't beneficial to town I viewed it a bit suspiciously and it would of course take some pretty stupid town to fall for it. Then it kind of dawned on me a bit late that they had to target you for you ability to affect them, which it's possible everyone in town can target you, but not likely. I still don't like they way it was worded and it makes cautious, but I'd say it's not much different from your blazing WIFOM, with that one we're damned if we do damned if we don't.

It is day one though, I probably shouldn't weigh too much into posts like that at this point.

Unvote

I like Dech's efforts on the numbers regarding cheesing your claim though. It also makes the risks of false claiming a little more apparent imo.

I can't tell why, but something about the style in this post says town to me. I think it's just the confidence. Not sure how much weight to put on that. I thought it was interesting that he's still feeling kind of fence-sitty, here. Could be more of a natural mannerism than an alignment. Calls previous double-tell into question.

Dechs why are you flailing? Are you hiding something? Are you scum?

Huh.

So based on that, is this a good idea? Would you like me shot?

Personally? No, I'd rather you not get shot by a vig. If you were going to get killed for whatever reason, I'd much rather it be through a lynch than through a targeted ability, less risk for town that way. That being said I'm not exactly on board the lynch wagon at this point, the only post that really irks me is your claim. Every time I come back to it it leaves me a bit unsure, which I am fairly certain that was your plan.

4. Witchhunt - Discarded: Town Conspiracy Theorist
5. Hamfactorial - Discarded: Town Vanilla
7. Jamie - Discarded: Town Vanilla
8. Rednihilist - Discarded: Town Conspiracy Theorist

Alright guys, pony up. What's the "other" Town card you discarded? We know it's not a role you chose and you all seem to have the "gives the scum less information" defense, but it's bullshit. I want each of you to tell me the town card you discarded, because you must have had another town card and if you're making it up, chances are we'll be able to spot you.

Were you dealt three town cards?

Hmm, the doubt seems like a mannerism. He's alternating between taking decisive, original positions and describing his thought process, while also being unsure about certain things. +town

Should have time for a proper response on Friday.]/quote]

Heh. +Scum

Dechs, I still want you to ask a unique question to everyone. At least tell me who you think is scum if that's too much work for you.

Alright, I'm tired of this shit. I'm not going to let you bully me around anymore. You wanted me to ask questions, I started asking questions. Then I started pushing for claims. We got a few early claims on those and they're people we can reasonably clear. I'm playing this game the best way I know how. If it doesn't work out, I'm going to learn from it and try again. If that's not good enough for you, then piss off. I've got a game to play.

Yes I'm confident in my claimed card. It's the fucking card I was dealt. Witchunt claimed Lover, too, but you think he's town. There was a Town Vanilla claimed that you're not going after. No. Of course not. It's just "Go after Dechs Day" in Stardust land. You're tunneling on me as bad as my wife does, and I'll tell you the same thing I tell her: You look hard enough at anyone, you'll find things you don't like. I bet the scum team is loving the job you're doing on me, just like in the WePick. Hell, tunneling almost got me lynched in Lego mafia, too.

Look at the card I discarded. It's a Roleblocker. If I was scum, that'd be the ideal fucking role to pick. But no, I let that go. Pretty stupid play for scum. I'd love to play a scum role, but you have to have more faith in me than that. That's the only mafia card dealt to me and I didn't get a werewolf. I've got no team, no quicktopic. I've only got the Town. I'm doing my best to find the scum here.

So, one more time. You don't like how I'm playing? Piss the hell off. I'm done talking to you.

Man, Dechs may be the most talented person in terms of telling other townies that he's a townie I've played with. I love it! It's like playing with a mason, every game.

I don't know who's scum.

I think Ham, Red, Imopen and LMD are Town. With me in that group, that's the five town players we were guaranteed.

Stardust, I still don't know what to think of your claim and you're just tunneling me so I'm getting a little emotional about it. I hope you're town because I know you're good at it and that means we'll win.

That leaves WitchHunt, Jamie, and RCW. RCW's the top of my list for scum candidates. He's been around while I've been asking for claimed cards and he hasn't responded to it. Now is the time that he could claim safely if he's scum. That's the behavior I expected to see out of scum.

Nice. Not a bad first take on who the scum may be, I suspect, too.

So my fully discarded card you know about from rez.

I took the faction from one and ability from another.

The resulting faction discarded was werewolf.

The resulting ability discarded was vanilla.

Note the truncated style, here. Other players were a lot more open about the reasons that they picked what they picked. Here, it's nothing but bare bones.

Hell I'm just now beginning to understand the dammed setup. Of course the claim request makes no sense to me, especially since Dechs misused terminology and I didn't think it applied to me in the first place.

[quote="rcwaspy']
imopen2, what exactly do you like about the "case"? This seems like too opportunistic of a vote tbh. We haven't interacted at all so far and now you're jumping in based on what exactly?

Tend to dislike these, particularly the latter post. That attack against Imopen is very weak, like he's not convinced himself.

Well, I've got a little bit of announcement, while re-reading and playing catch up in the thread I caught onto this.

The card i took alignment from was cop/lover

Since people started revealing their alignment card its best for everyone to follow suit, since whatever advantage there is gets you killed.

I'm counter claiming, I didn't have Town Lover, I had Town Cop/Lover as my card. I realize a Cop is a reasonably powerful role, and the reason I didn't pick it as my card was because there were so many factions besides Mafia and when doubled with the Lover portion of the card I didn't feel too keen on it.

I'm okay with revealing my previous sketchy claim simply because the counter claim profit is too strong.

Vote: Jamie

I'm in it for the town. If this backfires and I get lynched or NKed, you'll know to take out Jamie next.

Ooooo

++Not Mafia

Lyncher?

I'm 80% sure this is a witchhunt-in-ww/alien/serialkiller world you make this claim in. Mafia has 2 or 3 people in this world. You counterclaim against someone you have a scumread that isn't ww/alien and if it turns out mafia you're golden and set to win because you're counterclaim-immune.
If witchhunt is ww I want to have this fight now but if he's alien he's guaranteed to take someone out anyway as he goes down so maybe we could save that lynch for another day (or maybe he gets nk).

The other 20% world is where mafia wants to trade 1 for 1 for some reason.

To answer rednihilist's question, cop is an information role when you could die at any time. It feels weak but I really thought hard on taking it over my other nonvanilla ability. My conclusion was to take the ability that was less scary/random option

That reasoning is piss poor, I have no real reason as anti town to come out of no where and make a counter claim this bold. My best case scenario as anti town would be going 1 for 1, which would be retarded and just a terrible trade. I'm town, you're not, even if this gets flipped around on me you're still dying on day two.

Hmm. True, so far as it goes, but not addressing all possible scenarios.

rcwraspy

Questions me on RVS immediately following my claim. As I said before, "I voted him because his questions were targeting all the wrong things. I had just claimed. He talks about nothing but my RVS vote that wasn't even a vote. It felt like he wanted to smear me with something without taking a proper stance."

I've had a problem with paying attention to important things so far this game. Hopefully that stops. I didn't realize Iso wasn't even playing, lol. I didn't even bother to look at the player list when you posted that vote - I just reacted to it. Suffice it to say that I didn't need to follow up on this after I realized my mistake.

Ah, right, he follows my vote with good questions now. Carries on for a couple posts trying to catch me in a lie which I think is town motivated behaviour, though it could go either way.

Glad I can still do something right.

Answers a question of mine directed at LMD. It's odd that he feels the need to defend himself from a question that wasn't even targeting him - I got the impression that LMD was talking about me exclusively, so why is rcw nervous about how he came off?

This is a bad habit of mine. I get tied up thinking things through and sometimes when someone asks a question of someone else that touches on what I'm thinking about I respond. I need to stop that. I had been wondering whether or not to resopnd to your vote, decided it wasn't worth it, and jumped the gun on your question to LMD.

Calls my case on Dechs "decent", but doesn't go anywhere with it.

Because I didn't feel a need to. Dechs was still providing a ton of content for everybody to digest, and there was also the claiming thing. I felt that if I wanted to go back to it there was time.

Defends hamfactorial.

I should have let Ham do this himself, but I have a habit of correcting inaccuracies and/or oversights. I'm a bit of a pain that way.

Asks some frankly awkward questions of Dechs, but never returns to it.

Same reasons as above - Dechs was still posting a lot and I didn't see a reason to go back to it. Plus, if they're bad questions to begin with, why follow up? He also responded.

rcw, I want you to post a town/scum list with reasoning for each player.

Here's my current T/S list. In order of Rez's post of players. Some I don't have much of a read on because of lack of content.

1. Dechs Kaison - null. I can see both town and scum motivation for his desire for everybody to claim and for his posts in Stardust's "cases" on him. I think I need to wait for D2 or a lot more D1 activity to tell here, especially after we get a flip on today's lynch, whoever that may be.

2. Lord_Mcdonalds - I want to say town because the few posts have been good, but that's just it - they've been few and far between and mostly at opportune scum times. Leaning town but watching.

3. Stardust - I have a gut feeling as to your real role, and it's not what you claimed. I'm not saying it, though, because that wouldn't be beneficial. You're pretty lucky you didn't get counter-claimed. I won't be lynching you unless my gut feeling is proven wrong, but I'll be wary of any wagons you're on.

4. Witchhunt - fine thinking of WH as town for now b/c of the counter-claim. But that's certainly not dispositive of scuminess.

5. Hamfactorial - sort of like LMD. Hard to say. However, in my few games with Ham he's typically been aloof in day 1.

6. rcwraspy - this guy's as town as they come.

7. Jamie - lets lynch this guy.

8. Rednihilist - in the same boat as LMD and Ham. A few good posts, but not much to go on.

9. imopen2 - this might come across as omgus, but I really do think his vote on me was very scummy. After Jamie this is my strongest scum read so far.

Reading this as a scum post. Too nervous, apologetic.

So, RCW, you read stardust and myself as scummy? Please case us.

I don't think Stardust is scum. But he's not town right now, either.

You're my strongest scum read and I've already explained why itt. You've been sitting back and posting/voting at opportune times for scum, with thin reasons for your actions.

Yuck. This guy is definitely scum. No conviction in any of his posts, even when he's trying to be convincing and assertive.

I do want to point out Jamie didn't even really try to dispute my counter claim, which is probably a good thing because the Cop/Lover card was mine and I'd have fought him to the death for it. Nor did he try to point out he made a false claim and follow it up with an honest one, but even at this point I wouldn't believe the third card after that whole case. In my book he's anti town, not much to gain in pushing further on this since he can't be lynched, but that's my stance on him.

Stardust pointed out something that threw me off about choosing which Townie should absorb the supersaint, that's been talked up quite a bit so I'll move on to my 2 cents here.

I personally didn't read into Ham having an idea about my alignment at all from that post, I more noticed Raspy over here trying to push the same premise on Ham knows Stardust is town and making it Ham also knows WitchHunt is town. I'm getting the vibe of Raspy trying to stoke the flames of suspicion on Ham here.

Tending to believe the counter-claim scenario, rather than the lyncher scenario, based on this post.

Maybe this is just a speech pattern for Imopen and I'm looking into it too hard. What I'm seeing here, though, is a ton of non-committal statements. He's taking both sides of every issue to be able to appeal to everybody. I don't like it and my gut likes it less.

Vote Imopen

I think Imopen is just being Imopen.

Nope, this will probably make me care less. You guys can never figure out when I'm town, and, once again, you're pushing for information that will only help the scum. Lynch me if you really think I've been more scummy than RCW, but the case against me is weak as fuck and you deserve to lose for following it.

Yup, town.

[rcwraspy]

how is saying i'll respond later, and actually following through with it, scummy? I'm in law school ffs - time is a commodity.

[Azrael]

Reads:

Town

Azrael- Obv
DK - Hard town tells.
Imopen - Hard town tells.
Stardust - Style of claiming, +town points.

Rednihilist - Lurky/null.
Hamfactorial - Lurky/null.
Witchunt - Leaning not mafia. Could be some kind of neutral, potentially, but leaning against it. Still a little nervous about his being indecisive, like the counter-claim generally. Read very much in flux.

Jamie- Dude got counter-claimed. Hasn't convinced me he's town, didn't defend very strongly. Keeping an eye on it.
RcWaspy- Repeated lack of conviction in his reads, very nervous.

Scum


Follow-up Questions:

RCWaspy, why did you think Stardust's lurk-wagon case against Dechs, coming as early as page 2, was a decent case?

Also, should we have all non-town alignment players claim now? My greatest concern in this game is that it's going to be hella hard to pick out all the scum-aligned players from the other neutrals. Neutrals are pretty much just a complete crapshoot to read behaviorally, since whether they give off tells usually depends not on their actual alignment, but how they perceive themselves.

Vote: RCWaspy

[rcwraspy]

I'm not lyncher, but I believe Stardust is. It's what I've been alluding to in numerous posts, but I didn't know whether coming out and saying it is beneficial to town. I still don't know if it benefits town, since him missing his lyncher win-con makes him a vanilla townie.

[rcwraspy]

RCWaspy, why did you think Stardust's lurk-wagon case against Dechs, coming as early as page 2, was a decent case?

Contextual. Dechs had the most content up until that point and I liked Stardust's read on it at the time.

[Azrael]

how is saying i'll respond later, and actually following through with it, scummy? I'm in law school ffs - time is a commodity.

That's the only point in that case you care to respond to? Trying to single out a weak link in the chain?

The typical response to someone asking what your reads, as a townie, is to speak your mind. That may mean that you say you don't have any reads at the moment, or it may be saying what reads you do have. In your case, you stalled for time, and then came out with a bunch of very bland, weak-town reads on just about the entire playerbase. You didn't have reads until you took the time to work up fake ones, that were designed not to make you enemies, or stick out.

Too innocuous. Too artificial. No conviction.

[rcwraspy]

How many factions are in this game? How many alternate wincons? If I knew exactly what faction everybody was I'd say so.

[rcwraspy]

Hell, I'd think that the kind of conviction you seem to want me to have would actually be scummy. Scum are the only ones who know for a fact who else is scum and who isn't.

[Azrael]

Hell, I'd think that the kind of conviction you seem to want me to have would actually be scummy. Scum are the only ones who know for a fact who else is scum and who isn't.

You don't necessarily have to be convinced that you're right. You just have to be convinced that you have good reason to hold the reads that you hold.

You aren't . You read like you're walking through a field of eggshells, covering land-mines, every time you give your reasoning for one of your stances.

[Azrael]

*thinks* Maybe Witch is a lyncher, AND Jamie is mafia.

Are you a lyncher, Witch?

[Stardust]

Yeah, I agree with Az that imopen is town. I'm on vacation today, but please don't lynch him.

By the way, I've been very sure that Dechs was town for a couple pages now. Don't tell anyone.

Az, good thought with the lyncher thing. That hadn't occurred to me.

rcw, why do you think I'm a lyncher and for who?

[imopen2]

I haven't read the last dozen posts, and I don't remember if I did this again since Jaime governed himself, but

Unvote

Vote: RCW

[rcwraspy]

rcw, why do you think I'm a lyncher and for who?

What do you mean for who? Isn't a lyncher his own entity but reverts to vanilla town if the lynch target dies and the lyncher wasn't on the wagon? Anyway, here's why:

- First, your claim right out of the gate. Buys you all the time you'd want because nobody wants to target you, attempts to establish town credit, and lets you try to get the lynch going over the course of a few days if necessary. Obviously the claim is WIFOM, but it's either real or it isn't. If it's not, then that's because you're hiding something. What's the best thing to hide? It's not a great hiding device for scum - there are easier ways for them to hide I would think. So an alternate win-con seems the most appropriate.

Claiming Black Goo would have kept other anti-town factions (and town vigs) off my ass. Perfect, right? Not quite, because I would have to lie and generally would have enjoyed the game less. I decided that I ultimately would rather just play as Town Bulletproof than pretend to be playing as Town Bulletproof. That is my favourite role, after all.

The best lie is the one closest to the truth. You're saying some things that we know about you, but why do you feel the need to say them? And at the end of the day, if you fail in your lynch target you'll be vanilla town anyway, and almost "bullet proof" because of your claim. So it's all win-win for you.

For a bit I thought that either Dechs or myself were your lynch targets. You tunneled Dechs fairly hard in the early pages, but now you're saying that you think he's town. Either he's not your target or you're trying to throw people off your scent.

Now there's the wagon.

This seems innocuous at first blush but you've always liked to drop hints.

3. Stardust - I have a gut feeling as to your real role, and it's not what you claimed. I'm not saying it, though, because that wouldn't be beneficial. You're pretty lucky you didn't get counter-claimed. I won't be lynching you unless my gut feeling is proven wrong, but I'll be wary of any wagons you're on.

I don't really see Stardust and Ham sharing a faction. I could be wrong, of course, but I still have my own guess as to Stardust's true role. Jamie's giving the bare minimum of information, which is usually what scum do when they're pushed to L-2 or L-1. Town would be much more proactive at helping future days.

I don't think Stardust is scum. But he's not town right now, either.

Those were my various hints that I thought you were a lyncher. I also noticed that not once did you react to a single one of those statements. Your only reaction is coming now, after I've clearly said I think you're a lyncher.

I didn't read through rez's link to the list of roles until after I revealed too much about the cards I was dealt. The moment I read Lyncher I immediately thought "OMG Stardust is a lyncher."

[rcwraspy]

wait a minute, aren't I the only one with two revealed factional discards? Neither of them were town (Mafia and Werewolf). That puts me as statistically the most likely to be town in the whole game so far, and I'm drawing hate from new guy and from imopen, who has been acting incredibly scummy and refuses to claim at L-2. Before replacement LMD was also barely present, which is a typical scum tell. Pretty convenient for Az/LMD to be buddying imopen and both voting me. This way they get to lynch town and then also nightkill, putting them far ahead.

[WitchHunt]

*thinks* Maybe Witch is a lyncher, AND Jamie is mafia.

Are you a lyncher, Witch?

No, I'm not a lyncher, I just voted strongly for the person I counter claimed and I'll be after him again on Day 2 if I'm still around. Getting ready to head off to work, I'll make a post later on tonight when I get home.

[Azrael]

wait a minute, aren't I the only one with two revealed factional discards? Neither of them were town (Mafia and Werewolf). That puts me as statistically the most likely to be town in the whole game so far,

Is this true? Do we have any idea how that was handled by Rez?

[rcwraspy]

Mafia is the revealed discard from Rez's OP. Werewolf is the other discard that I revealed when I misunderstood what Dechs wanted us to claim.

[Azrael]

Mafia is the revealed discard from Rez's OP. Werewolf is the other discard that I revealed when I misunderstood what Dechs wanted us to claim.

I'm talking about statistics. Do we have any reason to believe that what your other two cards were has any bearing on the probability of your third card being a town alignment?

[Dechs Kaison]

No, we don't. He's making an appeal to the fact that there are more town cards, and if he got two non-town cards then the third one is more likely to be town.

That's not true. If I flip a coin nine times in a row and they all come up heads, what's the chance that the next flip comes up tails?

It's still 50%.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yes, it is more likely that his third, unrevealed card is Town than anything else. But it's not more likely to be Town than anyone else's.

[Dechs Kaison]

Don't try to misrepresent probabilities and statistics around me.

I'm the goddamn Micheal Jordan of probabilities and statistics.

[Dechs Kaison]

Actually, I take that back. Ham probably (heh, see what I did there?) has me beat around here for title of Math Mogul.

[rcwraspy]

You need to remember that each faction has a different number of cards and each card can only be used once.

[hamfactorial]

Someone lit up the math signal and I came running!

[Dechs Kaison]

You need to remember that each faction has a different number of cards and each card can only be used once.

And you need to remember that has no bearing on the cards you were dealt. Each card is its own instance and we don't know the order the cards were dealt to do the without replacement odds.

What are the odds that your third card is Town? Exactly the same odds that mine is and that Ham's is and that Stardust's is. And they're the same as the odds that your first and second cards were Town.

Town cards account for 68 of the 118 total. Each individual person here had a 7.3% chance of being dealt three non-town cards. That's only true if we don't know any of the three cards. You had two non-town cards already. The odds that your third card is non-town is something around 40% because it's independent of the other three.

[Dechs Kaison]

That's the mistake we made when we singled out the four guys that discarded Town cards. You really can't learn much from those choices. One dude could have been dealt three town cards and of course he'd have to discard one. Another guy could have been dealt three scum cards and for some reason, we were showing that less scrutiny.