Gone Postal Mafia - Game Over - Scum Win

[hamfactorial]

I'm at lunch but I'll do the same grid with Suga instead of DK. It may not have enough information though, since he was playing with people who are no longer alive.

[Wraith223]

PS: I'm questioning you because you're the only one that's actually answering.
I've got this gut read on Suga but I guess that calling the read "100% town" is quite ambitious.

I never knew if suga was vote parking or just picking the middle of the toad vote. His votes were either or

If you look at day 1 ending with DK; he had some nasty scum tells. Was never sure it was newb play or false newb play. So far though, he has scum hunted hard. Has his claimed ability matched anything you found in your ability? Is there a way we can
confirm his ability?

[hamfactorial]

I can generate 10 messages and ask him which of them I actually sent to LMD last night. He claims his ability works during the day.

[Dechs Kaison]

I don't know if it'll work that way, Ham, but I'll do what I can. My ability tells me I can identify whoever wrote a message. I think if you "generate" ten messages and ask which one you sent to LMD, my ability could tell me that you wrote all ten.

You'll have to do 9 of them by some kind of copy paste thing so they're not actually written by you. As long as you do that, I should be able to tell you which one is genuine.

[hamfactorial]

Alright, let's see if this helps at all. Formatted for easy copy-pasting to Stardust.

1

---

You scum bastard.

Yours,
hamfactorial

2

---

Can you receive mail?

Yours,
hamfactorial

3

---

Why didn't your head asplode?

Yours,
hamfactorial

4

---

I'm scum

Yours,
hamfactorial

5

---

Red is scum

Yours, hamfactorial

6

---

Wraith is scum

Yours, hamfactorial

7

---

Dechs is scum

Yours, hamfactorial

8

---

C_P is secretly the mafia godfather

Yours, hamfactorial

9

---

Stardust is sexy as hell

Yours, hamfactorial

10

---

#wounds

Yours,
hamfactorial

[RedNihilist]

lol?

[hamfactorial]

One of those envelopes has a bomb in it, so be careful.

[Cursed_Pride]

Not exactly sure what's going on here.

Ultimately, I congratulate on whoever is actually scum; you've played extremely well and we're probably going to mislynch.

ham>Wraith>Dechs>RN>L_McD are my tiers, from scummiest to towniest. Has Lord_McDonalds vanished?

RN is clearing townies which is a pretty strong towntell in endgame, but man, my gut still thinks he's scum.

ham, can you do this?

[quote=Cursed_Pride]Can you do a meta analysis of RedNihilist from Fire and Ice Mafia and one of his town games? I remember clearing him as town very early in Checkbox.[/quote]

I really need to pin down my read on Red. I think it'll be more productive than the grid thing.

[hamfactorial]

Sure thing, CP. I'll read him this weekend.

[Mcdonalds]

ham>Wraith>Dechs>RN>L_McD are my tiers, from scummiest to towniest. Has Lord_McDonalds vanished?

No been somewhat busy, work has been remarkably draining this week

few things I want to respond to and I'll prolly respond to them later today/tomorrow morning

[Cursed_Pride]

ham>Wraith>Dechs>RN>L_McD are my tiers, from scummiest to towniest. Has Lord_McDonalds vanished?

No been somewhat busy, work has been remarkably draining this week

few things I want to respond to and I'll prolly respond to them later today/tomorrow morning

OK.

Please answer the question I posted you earlier.

Thanks, ham.

[Mcdonalds]

L_McD: Why are you town? I want you to tell me what you've done that makes you town.

1. Broke RVS (somewhat)

2. Haven't stopped asking question

I hate questions like this.

[Mcdonalds]

I made a 4x4 grid with Red, Wraith, LMD and DK and started looking for associations using the most direct tool: lynch votes. Occam's Razor says that in a game with 2 scum players going into day 2, they're likely to vote to lynch town players instead of each other.

To construct the grid, I laid out the four players on each axis and got to work. I put an X into self pairs, since a player can't form a 2-man team with himself.

Then I put an X wherever a player has shown consistent voting against another player. Wraith consistently votes for Red, and Red consistently votes for Wraith so they each get an X. DK consistently votes for LMD, so they get an X. LMD consistently votes for Wraith, so they get an X.

This arrangement gives only 2 possibilities for
the scum team: Red/LMD or DK/Wraith.
.

There are more than 2 possibilities, if you believe me to be scum, than you believe that scum is willing ot lynch their own members to better themselves, which means there is no reason for me to be alive as at this point I am a massive detriment to scum (assuming I am)

[Mcdonalds]

Right now I would put Ham/Wraith as my scum team, C_P is confirmed town, I'm reading RN as town right now, and Dechs is simply tunneling me and suffering from confirmation nbias

[Mcdonalds]

L_McD: Why are you town? I want you to tell me what you've done that makes you town.

That being said, what exactly is the case against me, Rezmo never actually produced one

[hamfactorial]

ham>Wraith>Dechs>RN>L_McD are my tiers, from scummiest to towniest. Has Lord_McDonalds vanished?

No been somewhat busy, work has been remarkably draining this week

few things I want to respond to and I'll prolly respond to them later today/tomorrow morning

OK.

Please answer the question I posted you earlier.

Thanks, ham.

I read through Red's posts in
Checkbox, F&I and Theros mafia. In Checkbox he was town, fairly lurky and asked a lot of questions. In F&I he replaced into a scum slot in the late game and spent most of his posts voting and trying to actively join/start wagons. In Theros he was town, fairly lurky again, spent lots of his time arguing with Z and asking questions.

He voted a lot in F&I, not as much in his two town games. He's voted fairly often here.

In Theros and F&I he was critical of Wraith, so that's not new.

He continued to hunt in Theros after being wagoned day 4, similarly to how he played here on day 2.

Overall his play here reminds me of Theros more than both F&I and Checkbox. The increase in voting may be a scum tell, but he's been on Wraith's ass pretty consistently. Not sure if it's relevant.

I didn't get a ton from the meta read on Red, but Wraith's behavior here matches his all-town-all-the-time style from previous games they have shared.

[hamfactorial]

I made a 4x4 grid with Red, Wraith, LMD and DK and started looking for associations using the most direct tool: lynch votes. Occam's Razor says that in a game with 2 scum players going into day 2, they're likely to vote to lynch town players instead of each other.

To construct the grid, I laid out the four players on each axis and got to work. I put an X into self pairs, since a player can't form a 2-man team with himself.

Then I put an X wherever a player has shown consistent voting against another player. Wraith consistently votes for Red, and Red consistently votes for Wraith so they
each get an X. DK consistently votes for LMD, so they get an X. LMD consistently votes for Wraith, so they get an X.

This arrangement gives only 2 possibilities for the scum team: Red/LMD or DK/Wraith.
.

There are more than 2 possibilities, if you believe me to be scum, than you believe that scum is willing ot lynch their own members to better themselves, which means there is no reason for me to be alive as at this point I am a massive detriment to scum (assuming I am)

If the principle of Occam's Razor doesn't apply, and scum are actively bussing until endgame, then you're right and other scum teams are likely.

I'm only trying to make sense of the data in a logic-based way, since my mafia skills aren't very sharp.

[Wraith223]

L_McD: Why are you town? I want you to tell me what you've done that makes you town.

That being said, what exactly is the case against me, Rezmo never actually produced one

Noticed that as well. Not sure if he was tunneling or failed to follow through.

Like ham's challenge. DK better get on that.

[Dechs Kaison]

I've laid that out a hundred times today. Chief reason being that he's not dead.

[Mcdonalds]

Me not being dead is a stronger reason for me NOT to be scum

[Dechs Kaison]

BS. You got a bomb and no one is claiming that they protected you.

[RedNihilist]

You still refuse to acknowledge that maybe said bomb didn't exist in the first place.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah, I've acknowledged that's a possibility. If that's the case, then Ham's lying and scum. It's basically Ham's word against LMD's and I believe Ham.

[Mcdonalds]

Why would scum protect me, why haven't I been bussed yet?

[RedNihilist]

Yeah, I've acknowledged that's a possibility. If that's the case, then Ham's lying and scum. It's basically Ham's word against LMD's and I believe Ham.

You believe ham. Why?

[hamfactorial]

The bomb existed, and I'm a shitty liar

[RedNihilist]

I didn't ask that to you, though.

[Dechs Kaison]

Like I said, it's Ham's word against LMD's. This isn't a "one of them is probably scum" kind of thing either. One of them must be. There's no way around that. Ham has been much more helpful to town in general and active without having votes on his head. Ham has always come across with a town mindset. I believe him. That means LMD must be the scum out of that pair.

Also, Ham, those ten mail you generated? My power tells me you wrote them all. I kind of expected that.

[RedNihilist]

So, you feel like LMD is scum and ham is town.
Who's his partner in your eyes?

[Mcdonalds]

So I think it's pretty apparent Dechs is tunneling me

[Dechs Kaison]

Well, I know it's not me or CP. If I'm believing Ham, then he's either bussing LMD really hard or he's legit town. I'm betting town.

That leaves you and Wraith. I get where Ham's coming from when he says the team has to be you and LMD, but I've never really had a scum read off of you. I'd have to conclude that it's Wraith and they've just done good work distancing each other with voting patterns. Honestly, I can't expect them to be dumb enough to not do something like that in the past if they were on the same team.

[Dechs Kaison]

So I think it's pretty apparent Dechs is tunneling me

If by that you mean "Dechs is convinced that I'm scum," then yes. I must be tunneling you.

I've been over my thoughts enough times by now. You haven't been helpful to town. Hell, you hardly have any input unless someone's voting you. You had a bomb delivered to you and didn't die when the target of the bomb was unknown. Someone protected you. If it was a townie, that would have been claimed already. Scum protected you, and they'd have to be idiots to protect a townie when scum could have been the target of the bomb.

[RedNihilist]

This means that 4 players (me, C_P, DK, LMD) has Wraith in their scum team, if I'm correct.

That'd be enough for a lynch.

Anybody backing off?

[Stardust]

Votecount!

Wraith223 (1): Lord_Mcdonalds
Lord_Mcdonalds (1): Dechs Kaison

Not voting: Cursed_Pride, RedNihilist, Wraith223, hamfactorial

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in three days, less an hour.

[hamfactorial]

Repeating my intention to sheep vote whoever C_P votes.

[Dechs Kaison]

This means that 4 players (me, C_P, DK, LMD) has Wraith in their scum team, if I'm correct.

That'd be enough for a lynch.

Anybody backing off?

I think you mean Ham, not CP, but I don't see things the way you do. I don't think Ham/Wraith is a team any more than Wrath/LMD is the team or that you/Wraith is the team. I'm not even certain Wraith is scum.

LMD is who I find the most likely scum. If he is, then it's probably Wraith as his teammate. Wraith is behind an "if" and a "probably," while LMD is behind a bomb that never killed him. My vote isn't changing.

[RedNihilist]

That would be overkilling anyway.

I don't feel like sheeping C_P is a wise choice anyway, as he is the less informed player at the moment: he just knows he's town, so every other player is 40% scum to him - you, on the other hand, know his alignment AND yours, so that makes every other player (provided you're town, of course) 50% scum to you.

I'm more interested in people's read rather than just a lynch, anyway.

[RedNihilist]

PS: that was directed ad ham, of course.

[RedNihilist]

This means that 4 players (me, C_P, DK, LMD) has Wraith in their scum team, if I'm correct.

That'd be enough for a lynch.

Anybody backing off?

I think you mean Ham, not CP, but I don't see things the way you do. I don't think Ham/Wraith is a team any more than Wrath/LMD is the team or that you/Wraith is the team. I'm not even certain Wraith is scum.

LMD is who I find the most likely scum. If he is, then it's probably Wraith as his teammate. Wraith is behind an "if" and a "probably," while LMD is behind a bomb that never killed him. My vote isn't
changing.

C_P published a T/S list before where ham and Wraith were his scummiest reads.
ham said that he sees LMD as 100% scum and you being scummier than Wraith.
I'm pretty sure I meant what I've written.

Tell me more about your reads, anyway.

[Wraith223]

This means that 4 players (me, C_P, DK, LMD) has Wraith in their scum team, if I'm correct.

That'd be enough for a lynch.

Anybody backing off?

Again, Why am I scum to you so far? I sure as hell have not thrown out any huge big ifs (the bomb, mail ability, and your claim to follow people). Have you produced any solid evidence or leads? Crying scum only gets so far and your constant push for me is looking very strange when scum balls to the wall close to a win. I get the feeling you are in a hurry for a lynch cause every time things get heated or heavily discussed; you push my vote real fast with little or no evidence to back it up. When I challenge you on it, you just call me crazy or /ignore. Instead of throwing fit like some folks do
......I will ask you tow simple questions.
If I role scum; who do you lynch next?
If I role town; who do you lynch next?

I want to so believe you are town based on RCW early game buss and Pie taking you under his wing for a solid win for town, but your recent activity is throwing huge scum tells. WTH?