Gone Postal Mafia - Game Over - Scum Win

[Mcdonalds]

There is also the distinct possibility that I was simply protected to push a mislynch on me day 3

Given that didn't happen it's doubtful but saying both ham and I couldn't be town is wrong

[Dechs Kaison]

The two simplest solutions are:
- LMD is scum, his companion had a protecting ability that couldn't cast on himself and decided to cloak the only other scum player;
- ham is scum and he never had the bomb in the first place.

Discuss.

This is exactly what I said just a few posts ago, except far more succinctly.

[Dechs Kaison]

I mean no offense, Red, but what did you think you were contributing?

[hamfactorial]

Given my role failed, I'm not certain that is the case

Also jack made you untargetable

Ok, I suppose you're right. Why are you encouraging me to disregard the only scenario where you're not the primary scum actor?

[Mcdonalds]

Why not

[hamfactorial]

Because if you're actually town, encouraging me to vote for you is an instant loss if you get 1 more vote. What the fuck? At best you're unhelpful, at worst you're throwing the game.

[RedNihilist]

I mean no offense, Red, but what did you think you were contributing?

Next time I'll think twice before posting something, then.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm sorry. It's just that I had so recently spelled out a very detailed case coming to that exact conclusion. If you had read my case, you could have at least acknowledged it was the same as yours. If you hadn't, which is what I assumed, then I just felt ... marginalized.

Hurt my feelings, bro.

[RedNihilist]

I didn't want to sound that aggressive, my bad.

[Dechs Kaison]

S'ok, neither did I when I posted that first thing. Call it even.

We cool?

[RedNihilist]

<3

On a serious note, I guess it's time for a reread (ohgawd), but I don't think I'll be having the time to do so before thursday.

[Wraith223]

After a re-read I want to note a few things.

1. LMD. He really has not scum hunted and just votes for certain people. Nothing much else is provided for town by him for reads. He asks near rhetorical questions that either confuse or force town to question themselves. This might just be his play style. Also, Iso would not move his vote on him when the vote came in. He was town and I think he was killed as a ploy to remove suspicion from LMD. Highly subjective call, but it would be the play to make to stay alive as long as possible to throw suspicion on another.

2. Ham. Is he to believed or not? For now, I believe him as Jack's role confirms his story. Ham could be the greatest scum player ever, but I think scum messed with the mail to avoid death. Assuming scum can only use ability other than mail, I would posit that scum tried to kill Ham, failed to do so, messed with the mail, and Pie died. The only variable that I
cannot reconcile is whether Pie died from Ham or scum. Looking at another issue of Ham is the mail debacle. I think the mail was created for ham. Someone in this game had to know he liked that sort of thing and set the trap. Ham fell for the tar baby and Jack was lynched. Iso said the mail was crap and he flipped town. I currently place Ham at weak town.

3. DK. Ham may have caught the real culprit or this was another victim of the mail fraud. I have him at newb status and at the null spot as I can't confirm any of his claims on the mail. He is a true unknown in this game. The only difference is that jack claimed to have no answers for the mail evidence (did not try to fight the evidence found by ham).

4. Red. He may post weird stuff and ping my scum radar, but he has to be town based on the past votes of RCW. He is my strongest town read.

5. C_P. It was proposed that C_P was scum/mob boss, and LMD immediately denounced the idea. A few things to consider here.
-C_P has been left alive cause he
truly is scum.
-C_P has been trying to be the rubber stamp of approval for voting and has planned lynches for the next day (scum tell)
-Iso was being aggressive towards C_P and may have suspected the scum tells.
-C_P shoots lasers from his eyes. This has to indicative of a greater power not known to us.
This theory is very subjective, and I just cannot support it. I think C_P was left alive as an attempt to throw suspicion on others as C_P has been on the war path for LMD for a long time. Also, C_P's opinion has been becoming sharper and evolved in style, thus that tells me he is town. That is very hard to fake unless you are an experienced player. Who originally proposed this theory of C_P being scum boss?

[Mcdonalds]

Wouldn't killing iso raise more suspicion on me?

[Mcdonalds]

Cursed_Pride is confirmed town.


.

vote wraith

[Stardust]

Votecount!

Wraith223 (1): Lord_Mcdonalds

Not voting: Cursed_Pride, hamfactorial, RedNihilist, Wraith223, Dechs Kaison

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[RedNihilist]

[...]Who originally proposed this theory of C_P being scum boss?

It was actually a bitter joke on my part.

[Wraith223]

Cursed_Pride is confirmed town.


.

vote wraith

Did you even read what I said? I found the idea of c_p being scum not valid. This post is not needed and your reason to vote me is stupid if this is it. I find myself in an odd position of standing by Iso's vote for you.

vote LMD

[Wraith223]

[...]Who originally proposed this theory of C_P being scum boss?

It was actually a bitter joke on my part.

I must be missing something then. Can you explain?

[Mcdonalds]

Cursed_Pride is confirmed town.


.

vote wraith

Did you even read what I said? I found the idea of c_p being scum not valid. This post is not needed and your reason to vote me is stupid if this is it. I find myself in an odd position of standing by Iso's vote for you.

vote LMD[/
quote]
nice omgus

[Wraith223]

Cursed_Pride is confirmed town.


.

vote wraith

Did you even read what I said? I found the idea of c_p being scum not valid. This post is not
needed and your reason to vote me is stupid if this is it. I find myself in an odd position of standing by Iso's vote for you.

vote LMD

nice omgus

no sir, that was sound logic being applied to a poor reason of a vote. You are not even trying to act town anymore are you?

[Mcdonalds]

Suggesting c_p being scum/godfather is laughable, considering is baffling, the fact you brought up multiple times is very forced as we have no reason of thinking that

and what makes you think there is a godfather in this game?

[Dechs Kaison]

Can we get off the CP is a godfather mudslinging contest, please? It was a joke by Red, Ham and I both said it would be a very bitter twist, and we've all had our chance to laugh about it. Now let's drop the damn thing and get back to actual theories.

Be careful with your damn votes. Any two in the wrong spot ends this game.

[Mcdonalds]

Can we get off the CP is a godfather mudslinging contest, please? It was a joke by Red, Ham and I both said it would be a very bitter twist, and we've all had our chance to laugh about it. Now let's drop the damn thing and get back to actual theories.

The difference is, Wraith was presenting it as a legit theory.

[Dechs Kaison]

Did you read the part where he said it wasn't something he could support?

I think the difference is you just wanted the chance to throw mud on someone and detract attention from yourself.

[hamfactorial]

2. Ham. Is he to believed or not? For now, I believe him as Jack's role confirms his story. Ham could be the greatest scum player ever, but I think scum messed with the mail to avoid death. Assuming scum can only use ability other than mail, I would posit that scum tried to kill Ham, failed to do so, messed with the mail, and Pie died. The only variable that I cannot reconcile is whether Pie died from Ham or scum. Looking at another issue of Ham is the mail debacle. I think the mail was created for ham. Someone in this game had to know he liked that sort of thing and set the trap. Ham fell for the tar baby and Jack was lynched. Iso said the mail was crap and he flipped town. I currently place Ham at weak town.

You think the mail was created for me?
Why?

You say that it was a trap set up for me, but that seems odd. I've never survived past day 1 as town and my only successful scum strategy is to lurk. Who would go that far to set me (a mafia noob) up with a plan this complex?

Certainly scum might consider it after seeing how eagerly I chased myself down the rabbit hole this game. Going into this game I was just a generic baddie, certainly not worth trying to use as a pawn.

[Wraith223]

@ham, it is a theory. I still don't get the ggtap thing or whatever it was. That is why I inmediatly posted the my mail as more eyes looking at it might reveal more insight. Instead Iso was right that it was a pipe dream for town. I think you did the best you could with what you had, and followed your gut in hunting scum. Did scum create the mail for someone to follow or was it a fluke pie made to confuse scum? I would let it go and look at the votes and rationals for votes when scum hunting. Don't give up. Scum wins when town gives up.

[hamfactorial]

After a complete re-read, paying close attention to the foursome of Red, Wraith, LMD, and Dechs, I'm left with only shades of grey to work with.

LMD has not helped himself at all, was repeatedly criticized by many players, and has provided no useful information for town. He was my vig target, on a night where I was untargetable, and didn't die.

Wraith hammered rezombad eagerly, screwed up the GGtap reveal, but didn't RB Jack or me during the critical N2 phase where I attempted my vig.

Dechs replaced into Suga's slot, a scum suspect of mine, but has nonetheless displayed town motivation. He was eager to disband a RedNihilist wagon on D1 and the two worked together to self-verify their abilities D2. Possible scum team?

Red displayed townie indignation and contributed to the hunt despite being in danger on D1 before Pie switched everyone to raspy. Jack was highly critical of him, saying that his behavior as town
was different in Checkbox Mafia.

I will feel betrayed the most if the scum team is Red/Dechs. I really want to vote for either of them, but LMD as the lynch is the seemingly simpler choice. My gut tells me it's wrong, but my brain says to make the high percentage play.

C_P: I noticed that you never claimed. Do you have an ability?

[Mcdonalds]

Given my role failed, I'm not certain that is the case

Also jack made you untargetable

Ok, I suppose you're right. Why are you encouraging me to disregard the only scenario where you're not the primary scum actor?

If we're willing to speculate that I am somehow a mafia godfather, there is also the distinct possibility that I was protected by mafia, stating that there are only two possible scenarios is a false dichotomy given we don't exactly know what powers the mafia do/do not have (we know for sure there is a protect role and that at least one of us is
lying about our role)

[hamfactorial]

Ok, I'll entertain that possibility. Why would they pick you to protect and also correctly choose you as my target?

[Cursed_Pride]

Yeah, I'm here. Reading up right now.

[Mcdonalds]

Ok, I'll entertain that possibility. Why would they pick you to protect and also correctly choose you as my target?

Easy to push a mislynch, assuming Dechs is town, they have at least one person tunneling me, Rez suspected I was scum and was lynched D2, from there they could simply protect me, and hope you target me (you stated I was one of two possible targets), if you target me (like they hope), then all of a sudden they can push a mislynch on me, and the town vig has wasted his shot, unless you decided to shoot someone else (and why would you, if the town cooperates, works together and follows through, it's much harder for them to push a mislynch)

[Dechs Kaison]

I don't buy that explanation. I can't remember Ham's two targets, but I do remember other people asking him to target others instead. He could have just as easily claimed targets he didn't intend to hit as well, so there was no way for scum to be sure you would be the target. If they were going to protect someone from the potential targets, it makes far more sense to protect their own teammates.

Cost/benefit analysis:
Protect a town, save a town: hope to push a mislynch.
Protect a town, lose a scum: only one scum left and close to losing.
Protect a scum, save a scum: tons of confusion, can claim Ham lied.
Protect a scum, townie dies: game is closer to a win, although suspect pool is smaller.

[Mcdonalds]

Why would ham do that, why would he claim targets he didn't intend to hit?

[Dechs Kaison]

The same reason you don't play a land you don't need to. You want your opponent to think it could be another counterspell.

By giving us accurate targets, he is predictable. It lets the scum team plan around what he's going to do. It certainly helped that he picked two people, but if he really wanted to throw them off, he could say two people he didn't actually intend to bomb.

Your argument only makes sense if both of his targets are town and the scum believed Ham and if they happened to guess correctly to protect you in the hopes that they could push for a mislynch. It's more likely that one of the targets was scum, and if someone's getting protection, it's going to be the scum guy. While the push for a mislynch is a decent plan, they couldn't afford to risk losing one of the scum team.

[hamfactorial]

"Protect a scum, save a scum: tons of confusion, can claim Ham lied."

This is the simplest explanation, and we certainly had lots of confusion yesterday and suggestions that I lied today.

[Mcdonalds]

Isn't that committing way too many resources to save one person, bare in mind I have had a wagon each day of this game?

[Cursed_Pride]

I'm reading through and everyone is scumhunting so genuinely that I think someone is fooling me really, really well.

If you believe Ham, then you're forced to conclude that LMD was somehow protected. If it was a townie that had protected him, we'd have seen a claim of that already. All the evidence points to LMD as scum. He's never been particularly helpful this game, but again, I don't want to go down that road because I just don't have the experience to make that judgement.

I agree with most of this, but my gut thinks that Lord_McDonalds is town. I have a hard time explaining it, though. I see the evidence and conclude that Lord_McDonalds is scum, but my gut thinks he's town.

Notice all the "if you believe Ham" and "Ham's claim" kind of language in my post. If I'm wrong about LMD, that'
s because Ham is a lying, scummy genius and deserves to win this game.

I agree with this. If hamfactorial is scum, I think he deserves to win.

SCUM

LMD
Wraith
ham
DK
me
C_P

TOWN

Why is Wraith scum? Please commit and case him.

C_P: I noticed that you never claimed. Do you have an ability?

I am unlynchable, unkillable, and have three votes. /s

Ultimately, I think I want to examine RedNihilist a bit more closely. I think he's coasting on early game town reads and it's plausible that rcwraspy bussed him. Look at this:

I guess it's claim o'clock.

You didn't.

vote rednihilist

Sorry for the absence,
been crazy with finals coming up but I'm keeping up with the thread.

So yeah, RN, can you please commit and case Wraith? You've been at him for most of the game, and I struggle to find REASONS when I look at your posts.

Guys, while it's fun to speculate on how L_McD survived when ham vigged him, I think we should be looking at behavioral evidence here.

I might need to look a bit more in depth but hamfactorial is my only bankable town read. I skimmed his other games and he's actually putting in effort here.

(Funny how it was the exact opposite D1)

[Wraith223]

You think RCW bussed Red for the horrid scum slip? Hmmmmmm. It is possible, and it a packed a wagon fast. Need to re-read and think about it.

For now, UNVOTE

Don't place anyone in your assured town pile as you are the only one in my opinion that is confirmed town. I know stardust could be messing with us, but I agree with Ham that it would be a dick move. I have Red in the town spot as an early game bussing seems poor in tactics, but now you have me curious. If you are unkillable; would you know if scum tried to kill you?

[hamfactorial]

C_P:

I have the same feels as you. Everything points to LMD as scum but I'm just not feeling it. I was convinced that Red was scum on the read through until he got to H-2 and kept contributing. Maybe just a smart play? It read town to me, then he dropped in activity level.

[Mcdonalds]

C_P:

I have the same feels as you. Everything points to LMD as scum but I'm just not feeling it. I was convinced that Red was scum on the read through until he got to H-2 and kept contributing. Maybe just a smart play? It read town to me, then he dropped in activity level.

Kindly answer my question

Also y so hesitant to vote me?