Fire and Ice Mafia - Game Over!

[Stardust]

suga hammered yesterday right?

gave me some pretty scummy vibes tbh.

Technically I hammered, then Suga "hammered" after I miscounted the votes (declaring my hammer to be L-1). Then Wraith ultra-hammered for no reason after that.

[zemanjaski]

OK, wall of text incoming, but I make no apologies. I've not done this before, so criticism welcome now or after the game if you prefer.

I am trying to do a few things:
- looking for movements votes (consistency vs. frequent changes)
- looking for timing (when someone enters and leaves a wagon)
- looking for patterns (eg: two players always voting together)

If you think I missed something please point it out. I believe that actions speak much louder than words - for all of our waffle, we had to act to lynch Freedom and that means the voting info should tell us something.

Vote Count 2!
I believe in a thing called lynch!

Stardust (
1) - imopen2
freedom (0)
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (1) - DroppinSuga
Void (1) - Manders
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (2) - Captain Murphy, freedom
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (2) - zemanjaski, Fate
imopen2 (3) - Stardust, rcwraspy, Wraith223

Not Voting (3) - Void, rezombad, (G_R)

Vote Count 3!
OP reading is tech, bro!

Stardust (0)
freedom (0)
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (1) - DroppinSuga
Void (1) - Fate
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (1) - zemanjaski
Captain Murphy (3) - Manders, imopen2, freedom
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (1) - Wraith223
[color]imopen2 (2) - Stardust, rcwraspy[/color]

Not Voting (4) - Void, rezombad, (G_R), Captain Murphy

I think it
is worth highlighting that Stardust and rcwraspy where on imopen2 very early and were very consistent with their vote placement throughout. That makes them more likely to be Town in my mind; taking a strong and consistent position is Town behaviour; both argued cases and didn't just jump on a wagon towards the end.

Vote Count 4!
Girl, you trippin.

Stardust (0)
freedom (3) - Fate, zemanjaski, Captain Murphy
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (1) - imopen2
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (3) - Manders, freedom, Droppin Suga
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (3) - Stardust, rcwraspy, Wraith223

Not Voting (3) -
Void, rezombad, (G_R)

Now the two key wagons from yesterday have formed, with the early Murphy wagon still present; I think this forms the best starting point for analysis as most players are voting. Also note that void, rezombad and (G_R) were not; we'll touch on that later.

Wraith vote changes: 1

Vote Count 5!
It's a race, and I'm gonna win!

Stardust (0)
freedom (3) - Fate, zemanjaski, Captain Murphy
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - imopen2, DroppinSuga
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (2) - Manders, freedom
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (3) - Stardust, rcwraspy, Wraith223

[
color=Purple]Not Voting (3) - Void, rezombad, (G_R)[/color]

Suga makes his first vote switch without casing me.

Vote Count 6!
meow

Stardust (0)
freedom (3) - Fate, Captain Murphy, Void
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - imopen2, freedom
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (1) - Manders
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (5) - Stardust, rcwraspy, Wraith223, zemanjaski, DroppinSuga

Not Voting (2) - rezombad, (G_R)

Void takes his first position, on the freedom wagon. This is getting later in the day - maybe that is suspicious?
However, it also comes at the time that imopen2 is under the greatest scrutiny, so I don't think Void is opportunistic scum at this point.

Zem and Suga have both moved on to imopen2. That's Suga's second switch without making a case, meaning he has voted for three different players without real explanation. Freedom and Imopen2 are voting together (this was one of the sticking points in the game against imopen2, that he was buddying Freedom).

Vote Count 7!
O.o

Stardust (0)
freedom (3) - Captain Murphy, Void, (G_R)
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - imopen2, freedom
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (1) - Manders
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)

imopen2 (5) - Stardust, rcwraspy, Wraith223, zemanjaski, Fate

Not Voting (2) - rezombad, DroppinSuga

Fate switches his vote from Freedom to Imopen2 when it looks like that is the more likely lynch. Stardust and rcwraspy remain ultra consistent. Suga again changes his vote (4th time!). Rezombad is still doing nothing. (G_R) now votes for Freedom - the timing of this, against the main wagon push, doesn't seem scummy to me.

At this point, Stardust, Rcwraspy and Wraith223 look the most Town to me.

Vote Count 8!
You must unlearn what you have learned~

Stardust (0)
freedom (4) - Captain Murphy, Void, (G_R), Manders
rcwraspy (0)
nzemanjaski (2) - imopen2, freedom
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (5) - Stardust, Wraith223, zemanjaski, Fate, DroppinSuga

Not Voting (2) - rezombad, rcwraspy

Rezombad still not voting.

DroppinSuga vote changes: 5

Manders joins the Freedom wagon. At this point in the game we were considering lynching either of the main candidates, so I don't know what way this vote leans. This makes me rethink (G_R)'s late move too; thoughts? My gut is that votes occurring in the middle of the wagon are the most likely to be scum; right at the start could be anything; right at the end looks too suspicious; so scum would want to hide in the middle of the pack.

[b:
1ayt0v9n]Vote Count 9![/b]
A summoner has disconnected

Stardust (0)
freedom (4) - Captain Murphy, Void, (G_R), Manders
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - imopen2, freedom
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (4) - Wraith223, zemanjaski, Fate, DroppinSuga

Not Voting (3) - rezombad, rcwraspy, Stardust

Not much to say on this one. SD's unvote came during discussion of the best way to resolve the competition between the two wagons.

Vote Count 10!
I'm Captain Basch![/size:
1ayt0v9n]

Stardust (0)
freedom (5) - Captain Murphy, Void, (G_R), Manders, rcwraspy
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - imopen2, freedom
Void (0)
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (0)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (4) - Wraith223, zemanjaski, Fate, DroppinSuga

Not Voting (2) - rezombad, Stardust

Raspy switches votes and I can't remember why. Probably null?

Vote Count 11!
Those goalposts have legs

Stardust (0)
freedom (4) - Captain Murphy, Void, Manders, rcwraspy
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (2) - freedom, DroppinSuga
Void (1) -
imopen2
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (1) - (G_R)
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (3) - Wraith223, zemanjaski, Fate

Not Voting (2) - rezombad, Stardust

Rezombad still not voting. WHAT THE FUCK.

(G_R) switches to Suga.

Suga switches to Zem (vote change 6).

Vote Count 12!
You died!

Stardust (0)
freedom (9) - Captain Murphy, Void, Manders, rcwraspy, zemanjaski, Fate, Stardust, DroppinSuga, Wraith223(Overkill!)
rcwraspy (0)
zemanjaski (1) - freedom
Void (1) - imopen2
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (0)
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (1) - (G_R)
nManders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (0)

Not Voting (1) - rezombad

Rezombad did nothing all of Day 1.

The imopen2 wagon joined the freedom wagon, giving us our lynch. The most interesting latecomers to the wagon were Stardust (who at at least discussed in detail the possibility for pushing either wagon), wraith (but the overkill nature of the vote, coupled with his consistency actually make this seem even more Town to me) and Suga (vote change 1 million).

TLDR Thoughts

RCWraspy and Wraith223 are Town. That's mostly what I got out of this. Stardust likely is too.

Rezombad should probably be replaced.

Suga changed votes seemingly at every opportunity, but not always to whatever wagon was being pushed; only about half of the time. He was on the major wagon pushes though, and never really explained why.

(G_R) and Manders didn't post much, but it was quality
content. Void has got some flack for his contributions (very little), but his voting was consistent.

Fate was aggressively pushing for lynches, but that's his style as either faction. Null to me.

Town: raspy, stardust, wraith
Scum: imopen2, suga

With everyone else in my null pile right now. I would rather a suga lynch than an imopen2 lynch though; I was pretty fucking wrong yesterDay so I am trying to come at toDay fresh.

Thoughts?

[Kazekirimaru]

Hey, guys.

I still need a replacement for Captain Murphy. Ask your friends! Or I have to modkill the slot. D:

[zemanjaski]

You need to look at Rezombad too.

[Kazekirimaru]

Vote Count 13!
desudesudesu

Stardust (0)
zemanjaski (0)
Void (3) - Fate, Stardust, imopen2
Wraith223 (0)
Fate (3) - DroppinSuga, Wraith223, Void
Captain Murphy (0)
DroppinSuga (1) - ( G_R )
Manders (0)
rezombad (0)
(G_R) (0)
imopen2 (0)

Not Voting (0) - zemanjaski, Captain Murphy, Manders, rezombad

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

Deadline is: 14 February, 2014 11:59PM EST

[Kazekirimaru]

You need to look at Rezombad too.

He'll get prodded tomorrow.

[zemanjaski]

You've got Void voting for Void

I don't know what you're talking about *cough*

[Link]

I dont' have wraith as town Z, that's for damn sure.

Why the fuck is Suga voting for me?

[DroppinSuga]

Because you are scummy as shit, son.

[Link]

I see you browsing this forum Suga

come out and fight me

Ninja: well thats a pile

[DroppinSuga]

I see you scummin'

Nigga, you crazy.

[zemanjaski]

Make a case then Suga.

[zemanjaski]

And explain why you shift your vote so much - don't you have any conviction in your reads?

A T/S list from you would also be very helpful.

[Link]

Suga is coasting on his meta waaaaaaaaaay harder than me

no way we're both town (and I already got spoiled on my own alignment so)

[zemanjaski]

Still claiming scum then?

[Link]

only when people bring it up. We're way past that stage of the game people need to move on.jpg

[imopen2]

"Void has got some flack for his contributions (very little), but his voting was consistent." -Zem

He voted for one person

[zemanjaski]

That's consistent. Compare to voters who switched 3+ times with little explanation.

[Wraith223]

I dont' have wraith as town Z, that's for damn sure.

Why the fuck is Suga voting for me?

You never answered my questions. How does claiming scum help town?

So far my hard scum pile is:
Fate- self proclaimed scum
Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him.
Captain Murphy- The doc hunter

Soft scum pile is:
Void- seemed to be the leader of one of the scum teams. Might be the team mate of Imopen2.
Stardust- I don't like unconfirmable claims as I have been burned before. Voting is speradic thus hard to nail down a faction.

Players I am Gibb's Staring at:
G_R- Has the weirdest reads on people and seems to be giving prolix with votes or posts (floundering for the weaker minded).
nDroppinSuga- I don't get him, his posts, answers to questions, or tactics. He could be strong scum for riding the waves.
Rezombad- Dude...post something and play the damn game!

[( G_R )]

[imopen2]

"Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him." -wraith

You've got to be fucking kidding me, dude. I did nothing of the sort. Stardust hammered, Suga was L+1, and you were L+2. I don't believe I ever even voted for Freedom the whole game.

Am I the only one who is actually paying attention?

[zemanjaski]

You never voted for freedom.

Explain wraith.

Suga still needs to answer SD's question from yesterday.

[Link]

I dont' have wraith as town Z, that's for damn sure.

Why the fuck is Suga voting for me?

You never answered my questions. How does claiming scum help town?

So far my hard scum pile is:
Fate- self proclaimed scum
Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him.
Captain Murphy- The doc hunter

Soft scum pile is:
Void- seemed to be the leader of one of the scum teams. Might be the team mate of Imopen2.
Stardust- I don't like unconfirmable claims as I have been burned before. Voting is speradic thus hard to nail down a faction.

nPlayers I am Gibb's Staring at:
G_R- Has the weirdest reads on people and seems to be giving prolix with votes or posts (floundering for the weaker minded).
DroppinSuga- I don't get him, his posts, answers to questions, or tactics. He could be strong scum for riding the waves.
Rezombad- Dude...post something and play the damn game!

in this post wraith distances from his buddy Imopen/Void


And his case on me is I claimed scum


/sits back

[Link]

I dont' have wraith as town Z, that's for damn sure.

Why the fuck is Suga voting for me?

You never answered my questions. How does claiming scum help town?

So far my hard scum pile is:
Fate- self proclaimed scum
Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him.
Captain Murphy- The doc hunter

Soft scum pile is:
Void- seemed to be the leader of one of the scum teams. Might be the team mate of Imopen2.
Stardust- I don't like unconfirmable claims as I have been burned before. Voting is speradic thus hard to nail down a faction.

nPlayers I am Gibb's Staring at:
G_R- Has the weirdest reads on people and seems to be giving prolix with votes or posts (floundering for the weaker minded).
DroppinSuga- I don't get him, his posts, answers to questions, or tactics. He could be strong scum for riding the waves.
Rezombad- Dude...post something and play the damn game!

in this post wraith distances from his buddy Imopen/Void


And his case on me is I claimed scum


/sits back

[Link]

That's consistent. Compare to voters who switched 3+ times with little explanation.

scum are more likely to be consistent, vote Void I'll prove it

[zemanjaski]

I don't agree with that.

[Stardust]

It's actually true. Depends on the player, but for someone like Void who isn't in the thick of things, yeah, it's true.

[Stardust]

Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him.

in this post wraith distances from his buddy Imopen/Void

That's not distancing. He blatantly forgets that imopen was not on freedom's wagon. Call that smearing if you like, but imopen is not Wraith's buddy. I still think Wraith is town. Like, seriously 99% sure.

[Stardust]

Z, that’s a nice start. One thing you didn’t touch much on was motivation for voting though. In my experience that’s a better indicator than just crunching the numbers (though it is more work).

For example, take rcw and my votes for imopen. You say we were consistently voting him, but that was just coincidence given that both of us put our votes on him in RVS and then just held them there.

Another example is Fate, who switched to freedom ahead of his three (I think?) preferred choices. The timing was fine, but the reasoning wasn’t there. That’s why I went after him today.

“My gut is that votes occurring in the middle of the wagon are the most likely to be scum; right at the start could be anything; right at the end looks too suspicious; so scum would want to hide in the middle of the pack.”
A lot of people say that. I agree that that’s when it’s most tempting to join a wagon - when one is forming you want to help
it along. Be careful with this though! If there’s actually a solid case then the buildup to a claim is often 100% legitimate. Scum sometimes even leave those alone, not wanting to get on a wagon in case the target claims Doc or the tides shift (since they know the townies will carry that wagon for them), then they’ll hammer later when the time is right. This is why hammers get a bad name, and for good reason.


As for your conclusions, I mostly agree on your town reads.
Your reasoning for imopen being scum (that he’s been buddying freedom) is a good one that I’ll be keeping in mind.
Your reasoning for Suga being scum is pretty weak though. He does move his vote around a lot, but what is the motivation for doing so? His surprise vote for freedom is the only scummy vote I can recall. A couple of his other moves had clear town motivation behind them.

Contrast that with Void, who had plenty of town motivation to move his vote, but chose not to. The
important thing here isn’t that he was consistent in voting freedom (there was townie motivation for doing that too – freedom was scummy in a vacuum), but that he avoided commenting on any other wagon. He didn’t push for freedom aggressively, but he made sure to never take a stance on anything else. His contribution to the imopen wagon was only to cast doubt on his town slip, without ever calling him scum. Basically, if imopen had been the lynch today, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Void take the hammer (I think that's what he was waiting for, but wanted to appear consistent for folks like you ).
Then he follows up with a Day 2 vote on Fate, following through with his only other read (from early Day 1) – a chain lynch in the event freedom flips town.

Void did actually switch his vote to Wraith for a very brief time
(which you missed only looking at Kaze's posts), but he only did that to fake a town slip, so...

[Manders]

I won't be posting anything HUGE until I get a chance to re-read wraspy. (Shouldn't take long as he barely posted, but I have to have the time.)

For now, Stardust, please explain what changed between this post:

I just realized that line of thinking doesn't work in this game. With two Scum team, even if Wraith is Scum, there is no way for him to be certain that freedom is Town. Re: Two Scum teams.

Void, this is a post from late in Day 1, well after imopen's town slip. You said you understood my reasoning for believing imopen's slip to be legit, but disagreed. Fine. However, this quote
shows that you put no thought into the town slip at all. This line of thinking (that suddenly dawned on you later) is exactly why imopen's slip works. So... what's up with that? What did you think I was talking about when I described why I saw imopen's slip as real? Alternatively, is this you trying to fake the same town slip?

and this post:

Unvote, Vote Void.

[Stardust]

Nothing? In that first post I'm basically accusing him of casting doubt on imopen's town slip without even understanding why it was a town slip. Then I vote him.

[Wraith223]

"Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him." -wraith

You've got to be fucking kidding me, dude. I did nothing of the sort. Stardust hammered, Suga was L+1, and you were L+2. I don't believe I ever even voted for Freedom the whole game.

Am I the only one who is actually paying attention?

I am sorry dude! I missread the vote count. That's interesting/telling you didn't vote freedom.

[Wraith223]

I dont' have wraith as town Z, that's for damn sure.

Why the fuck is Suga voting for me?

You never answered my questions. How does claiming scum help town?

So far my hard scum pile is:
Fate- self proclaimed scum
Imopen2- Do I have to give the reasons why again? He also hammered Freedom who defended him. Second sentence was wrong, but I still don't care for his previous actions.
Captain
Murphy- The doc hunter

Soft scum pile is:
Void- seemed to be the leader of one of the scum teams. Might be the team mate of Imopen2.
Stardust- I don't like unconfirmable claims as I have been burned before. Voting is speradic thus hard to nail down a faction.

Players I am Gibb's Staring at:
G_R- Has the weirdest reads on people and seems to be giving prolix with votes or posts (floundering for the weaker minded).
DroppinSuga- I don't get him, his posts, answers to questions, or tactics. He could be strong scum for riding the waves.
Rezombad- Dude...post something and play the damn game!

in this post wraith distances from his buddy Imopen/Void
How is this distancing? I think they are scum. How could you confuse that unless you are scum trying to minimize my findings.

And his case on me is I claimed scum
You did and thought no one would challenge that?

/sits back

Yes, I sit back and watch you flounder.

Apologies to Imopen2 for the false claim.

[Void]

I understand why I am pushed because of my content and posts this game, but being pushed because I am consistent with my voting is the worse reason I have ever been pushed for.

@Stardust:
That was not me faking a Town slip or even trying to Town slip. Ftr, I don't even see that as a Town slip because of the complexity of this game. It's called stream-of-consciousness posting something you see me do all the time.

[imopen2]

I understand why I am pushed because of my content and posts this game, but being pushed because I am consistent with my voting is the worse reason I have ever been pushed for.

@Stardust:
That was not me faking a Town slip or even trying to Town slip. Ftr, I don't even see that as a Town slip because of the complexity of this game. It's called stream-of-consciousness posting something you see me do all the time.

My case against you was not for your consistency.

[Stardust]

@Stardust:
That was not me faking a Town slip or even trying to Town slip. Ftr, I don't even see that as a Town slip because of the complexity of this game. It's called stream-of-consciousness posting something you see me do all the time.

What did you think I was talking about when I described why I saw imopen's slip as real?

[Void]

@Stardust:
That was not me faking a Town slip or even trying to Town slip. Ftr, I don't even see that as a Town slip because of the complexity of this game. It's called stream-of-consciousness posting something you see me do all the time.

What did you think I was talking about when I described why I saw imopen's slip as real?

Not this obviously.

@imopen2:
I wasn't talking about case. Nice of you to butt in where it's not needed.

[rezombad]

@DroppinSuga: Case Zem now.

Vote DroppinSuga
because this:

I'm going to case Z tomorrow.

and this:

I don't have time for a full case on Zem at this time, but it pretty much starts and ends with the fact that his cases are super weak.

and then this:

Stardust, who did you target last night?

[Link]

soldi post, can't blame you rezombad.

But we lynch one scum at a time today its Void les go

[rezombad]

I don't see it.