Kaze's Newbie Mafia (Mafia Win)

[rcwraspy]

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see
someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the
doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to begin with.

I think you were the last. I also now think you've been right on the money with your TubeHunter/Iso scumteam.

You're right that scum generally wouldn't fake claim now. There's also no reason for town PR's to be hiding anymore. We need to lynch correctly today and need as much information as possible. Checkbox is town, for sure, but read my big post to see why Iso's not yet cleared. He's the only one who would fake claim in a game like this.

I just read your post. The big question I had in my post, which you quoted, was whether and why scum would claim a PR. You've indicated that's Iso's m.o. when he's scum, which puts another twist on what I wrote above.

[imopen2]

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see
someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the
doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to begin with.

I think you were the last. I also now think you've been right on the money with your TubeHunter/Iso scumteam.

You're right that scum generally wouldn't fake claim now. There's also no reason for town PR's to be hiding anymore. We need to lynch correctly today and need as much information as possible. Checkbox is town, for sure, but read my big post to see why Iso's not yet cleared. He's the only one who would fake claim in a game like this.

you're right, I was so focused on us being in game A that I failed to notice that game 1 is still a possibility. this is a very tough choice...I think the best bet would be to lynch tubehunter and hope he is a roleblocker so that we can be sure of which set-up we're in. the only thing that disturbs me is the chance that the scum team is iso/
stardust and the wool is being pulled over all our eyes but this is a game and someone has to win. learning experiences etc...

[imopen2]

so i'm being lead to a cliff by stardust. will he push me off? will we be pushed off together? will we throw the scum over the side and return to town victorious?

[Stardust]

you're right, I was so focused on us being in game A that I failed to notice that game 1 is still a possibility. this is a very tough choice...I think the best bet would be to lynch tubehunter and hope he is a roleblocker so that we can be sure of which set-up we're in. the only thing that disturbs me is the chance that the scum team is iso/stardust and the wool is being pulled over all our eyes but this is a game and someone has to win. learning experiences etc...

Good call! I hadn't even thought of that! If Iso's town we've got a 50% shot of clearing him if Tube flips roleblocker. Given that, I'm just going to do this before putting in a whole pile of work since this might become trivial. That can wait until tomorrow.

Vote:
TubeHunter.

so i'm being lead to a cliff by stardust. will he push me off? will we be pushed off together? will we throw the scum over the side and return to town victorious?

Let's do this!

[imopen2]

sure.

Vote Tubehunter

[rcwraspy]

vote: TubeHunter

[Stardust]

Well that was fast. Checkbox, you know what to do.

[TubeHunter]

Holy shit you did it

[TubeHunter]

Goddamnit w

[TubeHunter]

I find.i have only myself to blame, but holy shit restraint much? I didn't even get to defend myself. I'm sorry guys

[imopen2]

Unvote Tubehunter

[imopen2]

I don't even fucking know

[Checkbox]

imopen, he's already been lynched.

Thoughts on who I should jail tonight? Considering I'm probably the NK target

[TubeHunter]

Doesn't matter... If Iso's claim is true, there is a role locker anyways. The sinking ship we are all on.

[TubeHunter]

Hope Iso is lying I guess? Then you have at least one guess to save the town, if not yourself.

[imopen2]

yea, I guess it's not all lost...with tube being town there would be only a few possible combinations of scum (barring someone from the town not counterclaiming anything which would be really annoying). those would be iso/stardust, iso/rcw, or rcw/stardust. so there is a 66% chance iso is scum now. if checkbox jails the NK or the scum that is submitting the NK...then we would know they don't have a roleblocker or they would have blocked checkbox...so then iso must be lying...we lynch iso, it's 3 scum and 1 town, a town is NK'd and we *hopefully* know who the 1 remaining scum is, and we win!

ok checkbox, you have a less than zero chance of winning us the game. prob just use a random number generator

[Stardust]

imopen, he's already been lynched.

Thoughts on who I should jail tonight? Considering I'm probably the NK target

If TubeHunter flips roleblocker, Iso is cleared. Jail either rcwraspy or myself.

If TubeHunter flips goon, jail one of us three.

You should actually make it public exactly who you're going to target in these two cases. We'll have one remaining scum and that way even if you die we'll have a cleared townie (the person you targeted). Maybe confirm with Kaze that you targeting a roleblocker who is both roleblocking and killing you will result in no kill. It should, but you should make sure.


If TubeHunter flips town... god help us all. In that case... choose one of us three and hope you guess right because you'll need to
block this kill or it's game over. If you believe me, it'll be down to rcwraspy and Iso. Even then it's a coin flip since they'll get to choose who executes the kill.

TubeHunter's going to flip scum though. I'm almost sure of it.

[Checkbox]

Why are you leaving imopen2 out of your calculations?

[TubeHunter]

God help you all.

[Stardust]

Because I have enough to worry about as it is. If imopen is scum, his scum buddy is Iso. If his scum buddy is Iso, they never would have gone all-in on that early game gambit. At least, almost never. Close enough to never that imopen really should be ignored given that if TubeHunter flips town, we'll have bigger problems.

[Checkbox]

If TubeHunter is scum, I'm leaning towards rcwraspy.

If TubeHunter is town, gg lol

[TubeHunter]

Where are you maze? My reckoning awaits!


Basically, if Iso isn't scum, we lose simple as that. if he is scum, then we have a small shot. (Unless there is an interaction I missed but role locker and jailer go in favor of the roleblocker.) who knows I guess, I didn't and failed hard.

[Stardust]

rcwraspy is fine. If TubeHunter flips roleblocker, you'll almost certainly live and we lynch rcw for the win. If TubeHunter flips Goon, I think you'll still die, but that'll at least narrow it down to Iso and me. He's been scummy enough this game that I feel confident I can win that fight.

Considering we started out with two mislynches, I'm actually feeling alright about this game all of a sudden. TubeHunter flipping town doesn't scare me in the least. Notice how following his lynch he's been implying he's town, but never outright saying it? We got 'em!

[TubeHunter]

Feel worse. Unless you are the scum. Then you should feel good . Though at this point you have to actually go full in on Iso being scum otherwise

[Checkbox]

If you are town, you aren't helping very much without explanations.

If you are scum, you are doing a bad job of throwing us off of the trail.

[Iso]

Hrm. Unless Iso's telling the truth and they targeted him. Ah, but then he would have died Night 2! Yes!

...or they thought I was being protected.
...or you committed the Nightkill on Night 1.


-

Ooh, clever, Stardust. Setting up the Iso lynch for when we nail your buddy. But my Bulletproof breadcrumbs date back to Day 1, so unless I was planning on falseclaiming Bulletproof from the start, your theory holds no weight.

imopen, he's already been lynched.

Thoughts on who I should jail tonight? Considering I'm probably the NK target

Jail Stardust if TubeHunter is scum. If not, then it's 50% between who you think the two scum are.

[Iso]

Also, I like to breadcrumb, regardless of my alignment, so if you're going to compare it to Boondocks, you might as well compare it to my other games where I do the same.

[TubeHunter]

I have honestly no idea what I'm supposed to be explaining. Why I feel like Iso must be scum to win? That should be common knowledge if you looked at the the setup link and saw roleblocker vs jailer.

[TubeHunter]

However I do think Iso is town regardless, so a raspy/stardust team takes the game. gg boys

[Stardust]

Ooh, clever, Stardust. Setting up the Iso lynch for when we nail your buddy. But my Bulletproof breadcrumbs date back to Day 1, so unless I was planning on falseclaiming Bulletproof from the start, your theory holds no weight.

Your breadcrumbing Day 2 was like taking loaves to the face in comparison to what you said Day 1. I caught the one post, but same as your initial gambit in this game, it's one of those things that you can just laugh off easily if things don't go your way. I know you, Iso.

[TubeHunter]

Raspy! How does this game look from your scum perspective?

[Iso]

rcwraspy is fine. If TubeHunter flips roleblocker, you'll almost certainly live and we lynch rcw for the win. If TubeHunter flips Goon, I think you'll still die, but that'll at least narrow it down to Iso and me. He's been scummy enough this game that I feel confident I can win that fight.

Considering we started out with two mislynches, I'm actually feeling alright about this game all of a sudden. TubeHunter flipping town doesn't scare me in the least. Notice how following his lynch he's been implying he's town, but never outright saying it? We got 'em!

This is actually a false dichotomy because you're suggesting that the other scum couldn't be the Roleblocker and using it as some sort of "proof" that I'd be falseclaiming -
when in actuality, the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.

Ooh, clever, Stardust. Setting up the Iso lynch for when we nail your buddy. But my Bulletproof breadcrumbs date back to Day 1, so unless I was planning on falseclaiming Bulletproof from the start, your theory holds no weight.

Your breadcrumbing Day 2 was like taking loaves to the face in comparison to what you said Day 1. I caught the one post, but same as your initial gambit in
this game, it's one of those things that you can just laugh off easily if things don't go your way. I know you, Iso.

I'm gonna go dig them up for everyone to see.

[Kazekirimaru]

Stop. Mod scene forthcoming.

[Iso]

Let's just say that as this game progresses, you'll see that you can gain more information during the Day than the Night.

Hinting there's not a Cop.

(provided Suga isn't the Roleblocker, and we do, in fact, have a Cop in this setup, which I have my doubts about)...Sure, a Jailer might be able to block the mafia kill, but we won't know if that's because there's a Bulletproof in the setup...So sure, there are pieces of information that we can pick up from the Night actions, but short of an incriminating Cop
result, behavioral analysis is our strongest weapon right now.

I make it pretty clear in this post that I know there isn't a Cop - basically, "Focus on behavioral analysis because a Cop won't bail us out of this one."

Hmm.

In the event that we have a Cop or a Tracker, and they get a guilty/action result over Night, they should immediately come forward.

:nod:

This was me telling the potential Tracker to out the 2nd scum when Suga flipped scum (which he didn't), but I didn't want to directly state, "Hey guise, I know we have either a Tracker/Jailer."

Could narrow down choices for a potential Tracker/Jailkeeper/Cop.[/quote:
av8x6tsh]

Note the lack of a mention of a Bulletproof.

And I doubt I'll be getting Copped toNight.

Self-explanatory.

(And if I get Tracked, I'm going to be peeved.)

Suggesting I believe there's a Tracker.

Day 2:

No, we have a Jailer. :nod:

oh look

And no, I'm not fishing. Are you?

oh look

Well I just got a PM back from Kaze that disappointed me, so we might not have a Jailer after all.

Again on the Tracker shpiel, also confirming that Kaze wouldn't tell me if my Bulletproof was expended or not

and short of some sort of confirmation through either a Tracker or a Jailer, I don't think we'll be able to PoE our options very well.

oh look

Need I go on?

[Iso]

Whoops. Sorry, Kaze.

[Kazekirimaru]

Vote Count 3.02
TubeHunter: Checkbox, Stardust, imopen2, rcwraspy(LYNCH!)

Not voting: Iso, TubeHunter

With 6 alive it took 4 to lynch.


The town, growing overzealous by the moment, quickly dragged TubeHunter to the tree.

Bloodlust, hatred, fear, the desire for revenge. So many thoughts go through your head. You must kill these scum among you. You must.

You must.

You must!

This one. This fool must certainly be one of them. No doubt about it.

...right?

The rope swings over the tree. The body swings with the rope. So little effort. So little restraint. The town grows ever more barbaric and vitriolic.

...just as the scum would like. The town
has been made marionettes of once again.


As of post #486, TubeHunter has been LYNCHED! He was a Vanilla Townie.

It is now Night 3. Do Not post. All night actions must be submitted to me by October 20, 2013 12:00A.M. PST. Actions not submitted shall be forfeit.

[Kazekirimaru]

You fought hard. You persevered. You have made it through loss and pain beyond measure. Will it all pay off?

Stardust and rcwraspy walk into the town square, smiles on their faces, the former holding a familiar set of keys. Keys to the cell block.

The town is lost. Despite your efforts, you simply could not root out the Mafia threat. Now, you are doomed to a terrible fate.

Checkbox has died Night 3. He was a Town Jailkeeper.

imopen2 - Vanilla Townie and Iso - Town 1-Shot Bulletproof have been endgamed.

The scum team of Stardust - Mafia Roleblocker and rcwraspy - Mafia Goon has won!

[Stardust]

Surprise! Thanks for a good game everyone!

Checkbox, who did you end up jailing? You had me stressing there at the end.

Mafia QT if you're interested: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/29HTbLVcb44

[imopen2]

Yea, I knew stardust was scum once the lynch was in on Tubehunter because he started making no sense. Well hopefully this served as a good first game for some people. You played very well, dusty

[Kazekirimaru]

Roles(Matrix column A):
2. Checkbox - Town Jailkeeper
5. Stardust - Mafia Roleblocker
4. Iso - 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie
8. rcwraspy - Mafia Goon
3. DroppinSuga - Vanilla Townie
9. RedNihilist - Vanilla Townie
7. Clownfish - Vanilla Townie
6. TubeHunter - Vanilla Townie
1. imopen2 - Vanilla Townie


Night 1 actions:
Checkbox Jailkeeps Stardust(Successful)
Stardust Roleblocks Clownfish; kills imopen2(Both failed; jailkept)

Night 2 actions:
Checkbox Jailkeeps Stardust(Successful)
Stardust Roleblocks Checkbox(Successful)
rcwraspy kills Clownfish(Successful)

Night 3 actions:
Checkbox Jailkeeps imopen2(Successful - No effect)
Stardust kills Checkbox(Successful)

Mafia QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/29HTbLVcb44

Dead QT(Mostly empty): http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/vBz4ZEB8cve