Kaze's Newbie Mafia (Mafia Win)

[Iso]

P.S. I'm the 1-Shot Bulletproof, and I've breadcrumbed that in various places throughout the thread.

[imopen2]

P.S. I'm the 1-Shot Bulletproof, and I've breadcrumbed that in various places throughout the thread.

Were you the mafia target N1?

[Stardust]

Iso, before we start mass claiming I want you to detail the theory you're talking about. Is it just that Checkbox is scum? What does imopen's play experience have to do with that? Who is Checkbox's scum buddy?

[Checkbox]

I'm the town Jailkeeper.

[imopen2]

Now would be a good time for someone to counterclaim if they are a PR...

[Stardust]

Is that right... I guess that throws the Checkbox-Iso scum team out the window, which is actually really helpful. I wish you'd waited to claim though. Iso's thoughts on you before you were confirmed town would have been enlightening.

Obviously if anyone else actually is the Jailer (or anything else, for that matter), they should claim, but I'm assuming you're telling the truth. You in particular have very little to gain from a fake-claim here.

Iso, I still want you to answer all those questions I asked a minute ago.

[imopen2]

Yea, not a huge fan of checkbox swooping in before iso could answer but if no one counterclaims any PR then I guess we have some newly confirmed townies.

I'm VT btw...I guess we're claiming right now :Shrug:

[Stardust]

Hmm. There are only three suspects left (I'll let you guys do the work if you want to add me into the mix). Iso and rcwraspy as a scum team seems unlikely given rcw's oddly timed case on Iso and Iso's less than fair response. TubeHunter/rcw scumteam is a possibility. rcw would be bussing rather than jumping on Red's wagon Day 2? Meshes with his reluctance to vote Suga Day 1, actually, where he's reluctant to vote townies. I don't remember TubeHunter getting involved in rcw's case or defense (makes sense), but I'll have to reread that to make sure. TubeHunter/Iso? Quite possible given what I recall of Iso's reads this game. Did Iso get involved in Checkbox vs. Tube? Need to check that too. Why call Checkbox town late Day 1 though? Picked up PR vibes maybe, but didn't want to kill someone who was suspected by everyone else? Possible. Missed with the Night 1 kill though...

Checkbox! Who did
you target with your ability each night?

[Stardust]

I suppose Iso/imopen2 is a possibility if either of them somehow knew the town roles were green. If he had any doubt at all, throwing your entire team away is much more unlikely than gambling with one team member.

I actually checked the Boondocks mafia QT for exactly this after that game finished (Iso and Kaze were scum buddies together). They never discussed role PM colours in there at least.

[imopen2]

I suppose Iso/imopen2 is a possibility if either of them somehow knew the town roles were green. If he had any doubt at all, throwing your entire team away is much more unlikely than gambling with one team member.

I actually checked the Boondocks mafia QT for exactly this after that game finished (Iso and Kaze were scum buddies together). They never discussed role PM colours in there at least.

No, but they extensively discussed gambits as scum..

[Stardust]

And Iso also had that preplanned "town slip" pregame. He may have preplanned this move too, but it’s still just as risky, preplanned or not. Much moreso if you were in on it, so I'm 100% comfortable with calling you town still.

[Stardust]

Hmm, maybe this is easy.

Did anyone receive a PM from Kaze following a Night phase? Not talking about that "come play, mothafuckers" PM that he sends out at the start of every day, but a different PM that tells you something happened to you.

[imopen2]

So let's have everyone claim and then we will see where to go from there

[Stardust]

Sure. If it's not obvious at this point, I'm vanilla.

[Kazekirimaru]

Vote Count 3.01
Checkbox: TubeHunter
TubeHunter: Checkbox

Not voting: imopen2, Iso, Stardust, rcwraspy

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Deadline is October 30, 2013 12:00A.M. PST

[TubeHunter]

This changes things.
unvote checkbox

[Checkbox]

Hmm. There are only three suspects left (I'll let you guys do the work if you want to add me into the mix). Iso and rcwraspy as a scum team seems unlikely given rcw's oddly timed case on Iso and Iso's less than fair response. TubeHunter/rcw scumteam is a possibility. rcw would be bussing rather than jumping on Red's wagon Day 2? Meshes with his reluctance to vote Suga Day 1, actually, where he's reluctant to vote townies. I don't remember TubeHunter getting involved in rcw's case or defense (makes sense), but I'll have to reread that to make sure. TubeHunter/Iso? Quite possible given what I recall of Iso's reads this game. Did Iso get involved in Checkbox vs. Tube? Need to check that too. Why call Checkbox town late Day 1 though? Picked up PR vibes maybe,
but didn't want to kill someone who was suspected by everyone else? Possible. Missed with the Night 1 kill though...

Checkbox! Who did you target with your ability each night?

You both nights.

Also, I'm still planning on answering the piles of questions thrown at me since my last tl;dr. Haven't forgotten about them.

[Checkbox]

Which, if I'm not mistaken, all but confirms you as town?

Is this right?

Night 1;
scenario 1 - Stardust is scum and I stopped the nightkill.
scenario 2 - Iso is targeted with the NK and is stopped with HIS power.
scenario 3 - Stardust is targeted and I stopped the nightkill.

Night 2;
I figured if Stardust was scum, targeting him again would confirm it. Since the NK was not stopped, we can rule out scenario 1, I think (if I understand correctly how NK's work). So its either scenario 2 or 3, with Stardust being confirmed town this way.

If I am missing something, please point it out.

[Checkbox]

I suppose there is a scenario 4 where the mafia choose not to kill anyone night 1, but that would never happen, right?

[Iso]

P.S. I'm the 1-Shot Bulletproof, and I've breadcrumbed that in various places throughout the thread.

Were you the mafia target N1?

Kaze wouldn't tell me when I asked. Which is the disappointing PM I mentioned that I got from Kaze.

Iso, before we start mass claiming I want you to detail the theory you're talking about. Is it just
that Checkbox is scum? What does imopen's play experience have to do with that? Who is Checkbox's scum buddy?

I was covering my bases. I was thinking Checkbox + Tubehunter scumteam. imopen's play has nothing to do with that - I just wanted to make sure I wasn't clearing him as town on false premises.

Now would be a good time for someone to counterclaim if they are a PR...

Indeed.

I suppose Iso/imopen2 is a possibility if either of them somehow knew the town roles
were green. If he had any doubt at all, throwing your entire team away is much more unlikely than gambling with one team member.

I actually checked the Boondocks mafia QT for exactly this after that game finished (Iso and Kaze were scum buddies together). They never discussed role PM colours in there at least.

No, but they extensively discussed gambits as scum..

Which has...what to do with anything that just happened?

Hmm, maybe this is easy.

Did anyone receive a PM from Kaze following a Night phase?

Nope.

Which, if I'm not mistaken, all but confirms you as town?

Is this right?

Night 1;
nscenario 1 - Stardust is scum and I stopped the nightkill.
scenario 2 - Iso is targeted with the NK and is stopped with HIS power.
scenario 3 - Stardust is targeted and I stopped the nightkill.

Night 2;
I figured if Stardust was scum, targeting him again would confirm it. Since the NK was not stopped, we can rule out scenario 1, I think (if I understand correctly how NK's work). So its either scenario 2 or 3, with Stardust being confirmed town this way.

If I am missing something, please point it out.

Not necessarily. The other option could be that Stardust thought he might be Jailed again and didn't want to risk that two Nights in a row.

I suppose there is a scenario 4 where the mafia choose not to kill anyone night 1, but that would never happen, right?

I'd say we can discount that as a
possibility through Occam's.

[Iso]

To be specific, I asked Kaze on Night 1 if my Bulletproof had been expended and he would not tell me.

[Iso]

I think TubeHunter/Stardust is now the most likely scumteam combination, which kind of surprises me, as Stardust is playing a lot better than I expected if he's scum.

I don't see rcw/Stardust, though I'd have to look back to figure out why.

I could buy rcw/TubeHunter but I think that's less likely, ultimately. Probably because I think rcw is more likely to be town.

[imopen2]

Which, if I'm not mistaken, all but confirms you as town?

Is this right?

Night 1;
scenario 1 - Stardust is scum and I stopped the nightkill.
scenario 2 - Iso is targeted with the NK and is stopped with HIS power.
scenario 3 - Stardust is targeted and I stopped the nightkill.

Night 2;
I figured if Stardust was scum, targeting him again would confirm it. Since the NK was not stopped, we can rule out scenario 1, I think (if I understand correctly how NK's work). So its either scenario 2 or 3, with Stardust being confirmed town this way.

If I am missing something, please point it out.

Well I don't know how it works exactly since I've never been scum but in the boondocks mafia the scum got to choose which of the two of them would
submit the NK so I don't think you can 100% rule it out. I'd like to hear iso respond about his 1 shot being used or not since that will help eliminate some scenarios

[imopen2]

Nath'd hard...reading iso's posts now

[imopen2]

@iso: it just shows the propensity to use gambits, even early game ones, as scum. Meta meta etc. I'm still waiting for rcwaspy to stop in but it's definitely looking like our suspects have narrowed significantly

[imopen2]

I think TubeHunter/Stardust is now the most likely scumteam combination, which kind of surprises me, as Stardust is playing a lot better than I expected if he's scum.

I don't see rcw/Stardust, though I'd have to look back to figure out why.

I could buy rcw/TubeHunter but I think that's less likely, ultimately. Probably because I think rcw is more likely to be town.

You think rcw is more likely to be town than stardust??

[TubeHunter]

A lot of things to think about. Iso, why do you think me/stardust is the most likely scum team?

Also, now that we (possibly) know who the jailer is, we are not safe tonight. We are in full fledged LyLo. Fellow town, tread carefully.

[Kazekirimaru]

You're in MyLo/MLaL, actually. Mislynch and Lose.

[Iso]

I think TubeHunter/Stardust is now the most likely scumteam combination, which kind of surprises me, as Stardust is playing a lot better than I expected if he's scum.

I don't see rcw/Stardust, though I'd have to look back to figure out why.

I could buy rcw/TubeHunter but I think that's less likely, ultimately. Probably because I think rcw is more likely to be town.

You think rcw is more likely to be town than stardust??

yes

A lot of things to think about. Iso, why do you think me/stardust is the most likely scum team?

Also, now that we (possibly) know who the jailer is, we are not safe tonight. We are in full fledged LyLo. Fellow town, tread carefully.

Posts like this are what make me think you're scum.

I'm ready to lynch TubeHunter.

[TubeHunter]

My body is ready

[TubeHunter]

Also i am vanila town. So I guess we lose?

[Iso]

With a 1-Shot Bulletproof and a Jailer, why do you automatically assume we lose?

[imopen2]

With a 1-Shot Bulletproof and a Jailer, why do you automatically assume we lose?

he's right that if we mislynch today we lose, unless the scum make a mistake in the night.

[imopen2]

I think TubeHunter/Stardust is now the most likely scumteam combination, which kind of surprises me, as Stardust is playing a lot better than I expected if he's scum.

I don't see rcw/Stardust, though I'd have to look back to figure out why.

I could buy rcw/TubeHunter but I think that's less likely, ultimately. Probably because I think rcw is more likely to be town.

You think rcw is more likely to be town than stardust??[/
quote]

yes

A lot of things to think about. Iso, why do you think me/stardust is the most likely scum team?

Also, now that we (possibly) know who the jailer is, we are not safe tonight. We are in full fledged LyLo. Fellow town, tread carefully.

Posts like this are what make me think you're scum.

I'm ready to lynch TubeHunter.

you're ready to lynch him before we hear from rcw?

[Iso]

1. Did I say I was ready to end the Day? I thought it was pretty clear I meant that I'm locking my lynch target in as Tube.

2. What do we need to hear from rcw on?

3. "The scum make a mistake" OR the Jailkeeper hits either the scum performing the kill or the kill target.

Why are you fearmongering?

Who do you think is the scumteam and why?

[imopen2]

1. Did I say I was ready to end the Day? I thought it was pretty clear I meant that I'm locking my lynch target in as Tube.

2. What do we need to hear from rcw on?

3. "The scum make a mistake" OR the Jailkeeper hits either the scum performing the kill or the kill target.

Why are you fearmongering?

Who do you think is the scumteam and why?

i don't want to spell it out for the scum but you are missing something in your scenario...

i'm not fearmongering, i'm just making sure you know where we're at since you seem to be overlooking a key aspect of our situation.

i still haven't heard a claim from rcw, or his thoughts on our current gamestate.

[imopen2]

i'm going back to sleep but i'll think about the scum team more when i wake up. (i called in sick to work today).

i won't be voting till i at least hear from rcw but once that happens things will hopefully be more clear.

i've never seen stardust as scum but he felt very town to me in this game (much more town than you, iso ) so that would leave rcw/tube as the team. it seems to me that we would have caught them a lot sooner if they were the team, tho, since they are both noobs (but i guess we did get tube to L-2 and rcw has had some pressure on him at times...).

anyways, enough rambling, back to sleep.

[rcwraspy]

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a
target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to begin with.

[Stardust]

You both nights.

Also, I'm still planning on answering the piles of questions thrown at me since my last tl;dr. Haven't forgotten about them.

Yes! I have acheived my dream of being targeted by a Night 1 kill!

Hrm. Unless Iso's telling the truth and they targeted him. Ah, but then he would have died Night 2! Yes!

Anyway, don't waste your time with the questions unless you think they're still important. They were meant to figure out if you're town or scum, a question that's irrelevant at this point. I'll probably continue asking you questions, but now it'll be for your opinion rather than your reaction. I'll push you to answer if rcw ends up
counterclaiming.

So its either scenario 2 or 3, with Stardust being confirmed town this way.

If I am missing something, please point it out.

Iso's right that it's not confirmed. Evidence, maybe, but definitely not proof.

I think TubeHunter/Stardust is now the most likely scumteam combination, which kind of surprises me, as Stardust is playing a lot better than I expected if he's scum.

Is that just because I don't necessarily believe your claim? I guess now's as good a time as any...

So Iso's a special case because he's got this thing where he never claims vanilla town when he's scum. Ever. That can make it awkward in a semi-open setup like
this. Depending on the setup chosen, he may not have a safe claim of any kind and be forced to just out the cop/doc/whatever or counterclaim and hope to get the PR lynched before himself. But anyway, here's the matrix:

Based on the claims, it looks like we're in Game A. If Iso is scum, we're actually in Game 1. Just assume this is true for a minute.

After there was no Nightkill Night 1, Iso knew there was a protective role in the game, most likely a doctor or a jailer since the chance that I'm bulletproof is a fair bit smaller than the chance that I'd be targeted by someone else since I was a decent pick for protection. What I hadn't considered before is that Iso would have been able to eliminate some of the possibilities based on the fact that he knew the Mafia role (if we are in Game 1, a Goon rather than a Roleblocker). That's what I meant by my cryptic "25%" comment early Day
2. Taking into account that Iso would have known he doesn't have a roleblocker, it's actually closer to 50% since the only possibilities are Game C or Game 1 with a smaller chance that it's Game 3. Iso commits to claiming Bulletproof at this point, dropping frankly unnecessary crumbs everywhere (reminds me of Boondocks, actually). If there's a Jailer, he's golden since the other role will be vanilla and he can claim we're in Game A. If it's a Doc and a Tracker, he'll have to counterclaim the Doc with his bulletproof claim, but that was unavoidable anyway. If it is Game 3 and I'm bulletproof, he'd have to counterclaim me and hope for the best I guess.

But the fact is, he's forced to do this, regardless of the bad odds. Since he can't claim vanilla, this is his best shot. All that is assuming Iso's scum of course, but based on this, not even looking at Iso's behaviour at all, there's a 50% chance that he's scum based on the fact that his claim would have been the
same regardless. We're in either Game 1 or Game A. In both cases, Iso would have claimed Bulletproof.

This is why I asked if anyone had received a PM. If we know there's a Roleblocker, that clears Iso. Seems like noone has, but that's not necessarily incriminating since I didn't receive a PM either when Checkbox roleblocked me. It's possible vanillas were targeted by the mafia roleblocker too (in which case they normally wouldn't receive a PM). Actually, I guess Checkbox would be the only one who could have received a PM. But you didn't, did you Checkbox?


So where does that leave us? Awkwardly, I agree with Iso that TubeHunter should be the lynch today. I can't see rcw and Iso being scum buddies, leaving TubeHunter as one half of either scum team. We can sort out rcw vs. Iso (vs. Me) tomorrow. If it's not clear, I'm definitely leaning towards Iso as the final scum at this point. I hadn't gone through all this thought process when I was protecting him yesterDay, but his behaviour has been
bad enough that I'm convinced now that he's on the wrong side of that 50%.

[Stardust]

First things first. Everybody's claiming. I'm vanilla town.

Am I the last to claim? If so, I guess that means nobody's counter-claiming the 1-shot bulletproof and the jailer. Which means that either those are correct claims or the real PRs claimed vanilla town. The only reason I can see for them doing that is to hedge and think they're potentially safer from a night kill. It could help if we successfully lynch toDay. According to Kaze, a mislynch and we lose, so incorrectly claiming only pays off if we correctly lynch, right? Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

However, I also can't see someone claiming a PR and actually being Vanilla Town. As I said, it would probably put a big target on their chest. If Iso is really a 1-shot bulletproof, we
don't know (and he's claimed he doesn't know either) whether it's been used or not. Only the scum would know that. And a jailer claim would seem like a target also.

So unless those are scum claiming PRs, I'd have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I guess my question is, why would a scum claim a PR? If the experienced players all agree that they likely wouldn't, then again, I'd have to give the PR claims the benefit of the doubt.

That means my read on an Iso/TubeHunter scum team may not be correct. At least, it may be half incorrect. TubeHunter is still the likeliest scum read left in the game.

@Stardust. A lot has happened since you asked me about the case on Checkbox. Honestly, the new developments overshadow that. Given what I've said above, I really do think that I need to give Checkbox and Iso the benefit of the doubt with their PR claims, which for now nullifies anything "leaning scum" or less on him. And I didn't have a "strong scum" read on him to
begin with.

I think you were the last. I also now think you've been right on the money with your TubeHunter/Iso scumteam.

You're right that scum generally wouldn't fake claim now. There's also no reason for town PR's to be hiding anymore. We need to lynch correctly today and need as much information as possible. Checkbox is town, for sure, but read my big post to see why Iso's not yet cleared. He's the only one who would fake claim in a game like this.